Damage In Tolland Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 On 12/16/2019 at 10:28 PM, ORH_wxman said: NAM was pretty cold down in CT. Usually that's the model to check in SWFE if you're looking for big warm nose early on in the event. I would not be forecasting almost no snow down there. Expand I’ve noticed inside 18 hours of the NAM is warm at 850 it’s right. In this presser it’s not .. so you can infer from that , that the warm tongue on the FV3 is not correct and a Euro/ HRRR solution is much more viable 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 On 12/16/2019 at 10:34 PM, Damage In Tolland said: I’ve noticed inside 18 hours of the NAM is warm at 850 it’s right. In this presser it’s not .. so you can infer from that , that the warm tongue on the FV3 is not correct and a Euro/ HRRR solution is much more viable Expand Well if the 18z euro comes in warmer, might be time for dumbfounding solutions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 A bit of a bump north on the herpes too. More love shown for S NH/N MA. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 On 12/16/2019 at 10:38 PM, CoastalWx said: Well if the 18z euro comes in warmer, might be time for dumbfounding solutions. Expand Works for me. Love sleet in the pack. We’re all winners here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 On 12/16/2019 at 10:38 PM, CoastalWx said: Well if the 18z euro comes in warmer, might be time for dumbfounding solutions. Expand If the FV3 pulls this out, would some rightfully tip their cap to it? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 GFS looks like a hot mess compared to the rest of 18z guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 On 12/16/2019 at 10:22 PM, Greg said: Gee, now, I wonder why those particular group of characters would react to my statement like that? Hmmmmm I wonder….. Expand You mean the posters from CT, one from MA, one from NH and one from ME? Should I add one from VT to round out most of New England ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Greg Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 On 12/16/2019 at 10:45 PM, powderfreak said: You mean the posters from CT, one from MA, one from NH and one from ME? Should I add one from VT to round out most of New England ? Expand Most VT, Northwestern, MA, Central NH, and ME, most of the northern peeps. Short range models are the way to go right now bank on it. I've seen this situation before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 On 12/16/2019 at 10:42 PM, dendrite said: If the FV3 pulls this out, would some rightfully tip their cap to it? Expand Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 I’ve been noticing on the ICON it’s had a weenie band of snow on the south coast the past few runs, then a gap before getting to the main band. You wonder if S.CT runs off a quick 3-4” before the mid level warmth starts to accelerate north before hitting another wall near the Pike? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 On 12/16/2019 at 10:48 PM, Greg said: Most VT, Northwestern, MA, Central NH, and ME. Short range models are the way to go right now bank on it. I've seen this situation before. Expand I honestly have no idea what you are talking about or referencing. What short range over mid-range? Stop looking at the Euro and go with the HRRR type advice? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 On 12/16/2019 at 10:52 PM, powderfreak said: I honestly have no idea what you are talking about or referencing. What short range over mid-range? Stop looking at the Euro and go with the HRRR type advice? Expand Idk what he’s talking about either. The models benefiting the areas he mentioned benefit him as well. It’s not like I’m going to jack here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Greg Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 On 12/16/2019 at 10:52 PM, powderfreak said: I honestly have no idea what you are talking about or referencing. What short range over mid-range? Stop looking at the Euro and go with the HRRR type advice? Expand I said the short range models. You just assumed the Euro and just named the HRRR which is a short range model which I just stated. You seem a little confused. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 On 12/16/2019 at 10:45 PM, powderfreak said: You mean the posters from CT, one from MA, one from NH and one from ME? Should I add one from VT to round out most of New England ? Expand Whenever i see a post with a bunch of weenies on it, i just add one it's fun to pig pile like that. Or if a post has a weenie, a wow, a confused, a thanks...ill add a sad just to try to make the whole gamut of emotions Edit: I only see one heart and one weenie....you can do better than that... Edit 2: getting better...one confused, i like those Edit 3: we're gettin close, just need a thanks and a sad...maybe a few more weenies too for the fire Edit 4: A sad face and we've made it Edit 5: We have arrived, i'm so proud of this community. 1 1 1 1 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 Well we have short range models that are split more north and south and we have medium range models split as well. So I guess we’re just wondering what exactly it is you’re thinking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 On 12/16/2019 at 10:56 PM, Greg said: I said the short range models. You just assumed the Euro and just named the HRRR which is a short range model which I just stated. You seem a little confused. Expand I am very confused. That is correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 On 12/16/2019 at 10:51 PM, powderfreak said: I’ve been noticing on the ICON it’s had a weenie band of snow on the south coast the past few runs, then a gap before getting to the main band. You wonder if S.CT runs off a quick 3-4” before the mid level warmth starts to accelerate north before hitting another wall near the Pike? Expand what other models hint at this? May be an artifact of precip type algorithms Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Greg Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 On 12/16/2019 at 11:01 PM, dendrite said: Well we have short range models that are split more north and south and we have medium range models split as well. So I guess we’re just wondering what exactly it is you’re thinking. Expand All I was really getting at was it more logical at this time span to use the Mesoscale models then the Global models GFS, CMC, ICON (If anybody really uses it at all). Hell, I'll check at 18Z and 0z to see what the Euro shows but mostly I would stick to the Mesos at this stage. JMHO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 On 12/16/2019 at 11:06 PM, powderfreak said: I am very confused. That is correct. Expand RGEM is a short range model and can suck with the best of them, They can fail just as well as a med or long range one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 On 12/16/2019 at 11:07 PM, Dr. Dews said: what other models hint at this? May be an artifact of precip type algorithms Expand Yeah definitely could be. There have been runs over the past couple days with a finger of fronto at a lower latitude before the mid levels start warming. Snow Goose has been talking about it too but more for his NYC area....that someone south could conceivably see a narrow axis of more snow than a latitude above them. Just discussing possibilities. Depends on when the real mid level push of the warm nose comes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 Well. A quick read of the last couple pages in my car makes me think I’m getting a ping fest. Oh well. At least it’s not rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 On 12/16/2019 at 11:16 PM, powderfreak said: Yeah definitely could be. There have been runs over the past couple days with a finger of fronto at a lower latitude before the mid levels start warming. Snow Goose has been talking about it too but more for his NYC area....that someone south could conceivably see a narrow axis of more snow than a latitude above them. Just discussing possibilities. Depends on when the real mid level push of the warm nose comes. Expand Yeah I remember reading that post. Not sure I'd forecast that without some OMS though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 Just a great night to be a weenie. Nothing like prepping for a winter storm by munching on edibles and watching/reading anxiety pour onto keyboards amongst my fellow brethren’s as regardless of what transpires...it will feel and look like winter tomorrow. Fights will break out as to which model won, it always happens. Someone will get skunked, it always happens. It just better not be me or I’ll berate a mothufukkan nws office or strangle my neighbors cat, just enough to relieve some anger but not enough to kill...cuz I love animals. Just a great night to be a weenie. 3 3 5 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 On 12/16/2019 at 10:33 PM, CoastalWx said: Effing gfs better be wrong. it looked almost less thumpy which likely relates to why it furnaces so quick aloft. Expand Total weak sauce on the gfs thump. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 On 12/16/2019 at 11:18 PM, Dr. Dews said: Yeah I remember reading that post. Not sure I'd forecast that without some OMS though Expand Oh I definitely wouldn’t forecast it... but I do think these SWFE have them often. It could be in NCT instead but you often get that initial fronto band that’s running W-E and sort of stationary for a couple hours before the real isentropic lift moves in and then it goes classic SWFE with precip moving SW to NE. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 On 12/16/2019 at 11:16 PM, powderfreak said: Yeah definitely could be. There have been runs over the past couple days with a finger of fronto at a lower latitude before the mid levels start warming. Snow Goose has been talking about it too but more for his NYC area....that someone south could conceivably see a narrow axis of more snow than a latitude above them. Just discussing possibilities. Depends on when the real mid level push of the warm nose comes. Expand Snow goose was talking about what could have occurred this afternoon. Everthing pushed back in time and consolidated since them. Enjoy your Arctic upslope dumper. That should give you those Kuchera numbers you posted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 On 12/16/2019 at 11:20 PM, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Just a great night to be a weenie. Nothing like prepping for a winter storm by munching on edibles and watching/reading anxiety pour onto keyboards amongst my fellow brethren’s as regardless of what transpires...it will feel and look like winter tomorrow. Fights will break out as to which model won, it always happens. Someone will get skunked, it always happens. It just better not be me or I’ll berate a mothufukkan nws office or strangle my neighbors cat, just enough to relieve some anger but not enough to kill...cuz I love animals. Just a great night to be a weenie. Expand Just sayin.. Noticing a marked warming trend at 850 on the HRRR, it seems to have halted this current run though. QPF cut back a bit as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 On 12/16/2019 at 11:21 PM, ORH_wxman said: Total weak sauce on the gfs thump. Expand I’m sure NNE folks are right it’s lead the northern extent charge but run to run consistency, even at go time, is similar to a nam like behavior. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 On 12/16/2019 at 11:24 PM, The 4 Seasons said: Just sayin.. Noticing a marked warming trend at 850 on the HRRR, it seems to have halted this current run though. QPF cut back a bit as well Expand Whoosh. The sarcasm missed ya. hrrr all over the place, not trusted. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 On 12/16/2019 at 11:23 PM, Ginx snewx said: Snow goose was talking about what could have occurred this afternoon. Everthing pushed back in time and consolidated since them. Enjoy your Arctic upslope dumper. That should give you those Kuchera numbers you posted. Expand Ahhh ok thanks...yeah I was just thinking your area could get in on it too. Almost like convergence along a stationary front before the approaching system turns it into a warm front lifting north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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