HoarfrostHubb Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 I’m kinda surprised BOX didn’t issue warnings in areas that could see 6”. Not that big of a deal but interesting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 31 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: I would certainly keep one eye on the mesos tonight and if they ramp up the speed and extent of the mid-level warming as we get closer. Not hard to envision sleet getting to the Pike or beyond before retreating back. Parts of CT definitely in the FZRA crosshairs. That would also mean that we continue to see upticks to the north on modeling, I know i would be much happier to get more in the way of qpf up here to a lot of others unhappiness.................lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 8 minutes ago, dryslot said: Looks like another couple tics north on the 18z GFS, Verbatim that would be warning snow up here....... Pull that shite up here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 2 minutes ago, Lava Rock said: Pull that shite up here Seem to be getting a little trough enhancement in there too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DFRI Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 11 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Gfs pretty far north. Does that mean more sleet and rain makes it's way into Rhode Island?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 Just now, DFRI said: Does that mean more sleet and rain makes it's way into Rhode Island?? More like sleet. Probably some rain too verbatim for you. But that’s just the gfs. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowderBeard Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 11 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: I’m kinda surprised BOX didn’t issue warnings in areas that could see 6”. Not that big of a deal but interesting Didn't 14-16" a couple Monday nights ago get an advisory? lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 Might not have total confidence in 6+ over a larger area. If they have 4-6” and someone gets 7” in a small area, does it really matter? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 Hopefully zr accretion is maximized for the southern zones, and NNE gets into the goods 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 RGEM is significantly warmer at H85 and is absolutely putrid for snow in CT, almost nothing up to 84. Pretty much all mix from the start. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 Just now, CoastalWx said: Might not have total confidence in 6+ over a larger area. If they have 4-6” and someone gets 7” in a small area, does it really matter? Some were very disappointed when they got there 20" and no warning................. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 Just now, CoastalWx said: Might not have total confidence in 6+ over a larger area. If they have 4-6” and someone gets 7” in a small area, does it really matter? I mean really does the average person even know the difference between an advisory and a warning? I wouldn’t have huge confidence in 6” for anyone so I get it. Not sure how they pull the trigger. 6” for 50%+ of a county? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 Just now, dryslot said: Some were very disappointed when they got there 20" and no warning................. Some will be disappointed that they don't stay all snow tomorrow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 2 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said: RGEM is significantly warmer at H85 and is absolutely putrid for snow in CT, almost nothing up to 84. Pretty much all mix from the start. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowderBeard Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 4 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said: RGEM is significantly warmer at H85 and is absolutely putrid for snow in CT, almost nothing up to 84. Pretty much all mix from the start. Juicer west of Boston, SVT and NH. Mixing to the pike most of the duration. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 5 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said: RGEM is significantly warmer at H85 and is absolutely putrid for snow in CT, almost nothing up to 84. Pretty much all mix from the start. Gfs seemed like that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 1 minute ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: Some will be disappointed that they don't stay all snow tomorrow. I can hear some pen tapping......... 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 2 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: I mean really does the average person even know the difference between an advisory and a warning? I wouldn’t have huge confidence in 6” for anyone so I get it. Not sure how they pull the trigger. 6” for 50%+ of a county? The public only sees amounts. They don’t really care or understand as you said. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 1 minute ago, powderfreak said: More pull than press. 0.60" into the CON/MHT area now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 The HRRR has the 850 0C line just north of the shoreline at 12Z and the RGEM is at the MA boarder, worlds apart. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 Oh Canada! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 2 minutes ago, dendrite said: More pull than press. 0.60" into the CON/MHT area now. We tried to tell them? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Greg Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 I trust the shorter range models more for this now than the medium range at this stage. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Greg Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 Gee, now, I wonder why those particular group of characters would react to my statement like that? Hmmmmm I wonder….. 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 8 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said: The HRRR has the 850 0C line just north of the shoreline at 12Z and the RGEM is at the MA boarder, worlds apart. Think we know which to use in a pressing situation 1 1 1 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 I think Ray would sign up for the 18z Reggie 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 1 minute ago, NorEastermass128 said: I think Ray would sign up for the 18z Reggie Would he also like the HRRR? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 NAM was pretty cold down in CT. Usually that's the model to check in SWFE if you're looking for big warm nose early on in the event. I would not be forecasting almost no snow down there. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Would he also like the HRRR? Would he Fuc the Ruc? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 Effing gfs better be wrong. it looked almost less thumpy which likely relates to why it furnaces so quick aloft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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