12/17 Messy Mix

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, Baroclinic Zone said:

Still a nice front end thump down this way.

Thump looks better than 06z down in SNE. Sleet will make it further north this run, but I like seeing the stronger dynamics.

[weatherwiz]

Even looks like the coast could see 2-3'' on the euro...nice. 

[CoastalWx]

Yeah nice front thump. Taint and a little rain before back to some -SN.

[HoarfrostHubb]

Nice 6+" stripe of snow N of the Pike 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

1 minute ago, dryslot said:

Looks like you flip at some point? No?

Yeah after like 4”+ though 

[CoastalWx]

Just now, HoarfrostHubb said:

Nice 6+" stripe of snow N of the Pike 

Congrats on another lame storm.

[Baroclinic Zone]

1 minute ago, dryslot said:

Looks like you flip at some point? No?

For sure.  It's been steadfast in dropping 2-4" here for the past couple days.

 Surface gets to mid 30s by about mid-day tomorrow. 

If anyone can post the 850s that would be great.

[Lava Rock]

7 minutes ago, dryslot said:

12z Euro caving bringing the precip further north up here from 06z, Looks a bit warmer as well, But it was also pretty meager with qpf this far north so just coming more inline with the other models.

hard to get excited over 2", but take what we can get.

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Nice 6+" stripe of snow N of the Pike 

In reality, I think it would prob extend a bit further south than the clown map shows too because its cutting off the snow algorithm based on where the 18z snow line is which is just N of pike....most of the 12-18z precip is snow down to like BOS and even slightly south....but it starts to mix at 16z or something. But algorithm isn't hourly, so it doesn't know that.

[dryslot]

Just now, Lava Rock said:

hard to get excited over 2", but take what we can get.

This year, That's a foot.

[Baroclinic Zone]

3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Thump looks better than 06z down in SNE. Sleet will make it further north this run, but I like seeing the stronger dynamics.

Yeah, pretty standard op with this one.  Will make for a nice nowcast to see if we can eek out another 1-2hrs on the front end.

[dryslot]

2 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

For sure.  It's been steadfast in dropping 2-4" here for the past couple days.

 Surface gets to mid 30s by about mid-day tomorrow. 

If anyone can post the 850s that would be great.

What hrs?

[TalcottWx]

1 hour ago, weathafella said:

Glad dad is doing betterJay! 

Thank you my friend. Going on week 4 1/2. Time to drain a ton of fluid. Pancreas has taken a beating. But doctor is world renowned for treating necrotizing pancreatitis, and says he's confident. Going to be a long time before he's on his feet again. But have a good feeling. 

[Baroclinic Zone]

2 minutes ago, dryslot said:

What hrs?

24 & 30

[NYCweatherNOW]

Anyone here has the clownmap begging for a friend!

[weatherwiz]

Given the Euro joining the train this afternoon I think we see winter storm warnings fly. Going to be a nice strip of 4-8'' 

[dryslot]

Just now, Baroclinic Zone said:

24 & 30

 

[CoastalWx]

That area near Ray to BED and adjacent srn NH look good. 

[Baroclinic Zone]

Just now, NYCweatherNOW said:

Anyone here has the clownmap begging for a friend!

[Bostonseminole]

yeap, looks like 6-8" north of pike.. some local mets will need to up their graphics as some had 1-3" 

[ORH_wxman]

3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

In reality, I think it would prob extend a bit further south than the clown map shows too because its cutting off the snow algorithm based on where the 18z snow line is which is just N of pike....most of the 12-18z precip is snow down to like BOS and even slightly south....but it starts to mix at 16z or something. But algorithm isn't hourly, so it doesn't know that.

Here's an example....look at the 6 hourly snowfall between 12z and 18z....notice that really sharp gradient just N of the pike. The QPF doesnt look like that either...it's only the snow that does. Yet the snow line at 12z is still down in central CT/RI. So it is assuming that the changeover to sleet happens in the BOS-ORH corridor extremely fast after 12z and then halfts for 4-5 hours just north of them....which isn't very realistic. So you get these weird banded looks on the clown maps. It's a good example why not to rip and read them....esp if you are in a zone that transitions between snow and another ptype in between 6 hour panels.

 

 

[Bostonseminole]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

That area near Ray to BED and adjacent srn NH look good. 

Yeap, is this heavy wet snow?

[dryslot]

1 minute ago, weatherwiz said:

Given the Euro joining the train this afternoon I think we see winter storm warnings fly. Going to be a nice strip of 4-8'' 

Some had laughed at the GFS but it has been pretty steadfast BL issues not included bringing this pretty far north from being the outlier to most all the others moving towards it.

[Typhoon Tip]

5 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

Or you can do it with heavy rates....but it needs to be a deluge for hours....this is what happened in ORH county in the 2008 icestorm....we had like 2.5 inches of QPF that produced an inch and a quarter to an inch and a half of ice. But it took like 18 hours of pretty heavy rates to get there.

Granted, we prob got to half an inch of ice the prior evening after 10 hours or so, but we were wasting a ton of QPF with that runoff.

It can be more extreme ...

I mean we all know this that are weather dorks, but in the Plains you can get some rather uniquely physically stressing soundings, with 19 F within 2,000 foot of the ground, and 44 F melting above the BL, where there is yet overrunning convective elements in the sub-mid levels producing lightning and thunder fall rates.   It does happen ...rarely. I've not seen it first hand, but have seen live video of orange flash, thunder boom, and raining hard enough that the air appeared foggy at relatively short distances with a temperature of 19 F. 

Heavy or not, you're efficient - just a matter of whether that efficiency and rate of phase change competes with fall rate... Obviously, it's never 1::1 - it can't be... hydrometeoroids splash on contact too..

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, Bostonseminole said:

Yeap, is this heavy wet snow?

I don't think so. I don't think anyone near and NW of 128 sniffs 32. It won't be high ratio stuff though. 

[CoastalWx]

3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Here's an example....look at the 6 hourly snowfall between 12z and 18z....notice that really sharp gradient just N of the pike. The QPF doesnt look like that either...it's only the snow that does. Yet the snow line at 12z is still down in central CT/RI. So it is assuming that the changeover to sleet happens in the BOS-ORH corridor extremely fast after 12z and then halfts for 4-5 hours just north of them....which isn't very realistic. So you get these weird banded looks on the clown maps. It's a good example why not to rip and read them....esp if you are in a zone that transitions between snow and another ptype in between 6 hour panels.

 

 

It's why EC soundings would be awfully nice.

[weatherwiz]

2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Here's an example....look at the 6 hourly snowfall between 12z and 18z....notice that really sharp gradient just N of the pike. The QPF doesnt look like that either...it's only the snow that does. Yet the snow line at 12z is still down in central CT/RI. So it is assuming that the changeover to sleet happens in the BOS-ORH corridor extremely fast after 12z and then halfts for 4-5 hours just north of them....which isn't very realistic. So you get these weird banded looks on the clown maps. It's a good example why not to rip and read them....esp if you are in a zone that transitions between snow and another ptype in between 6 hour panels.

 

 

yup...not only are they garbage to begin with but add p-type issues into the picture and they become worse than garbage. Only thing perhaps realistic about that is the potential max area

Just now, dryslot said:

Some had laughed at the GFS but it has been pretty steadfast BL issues not included bringing this pretty far north from being the outlier to most all the others moving towards it.

That should have always been a player on the table...scenarios like that are not uncommon in these setups 

[Typhoon Tip]

I think it is interesting that originally way last week we were speculating this was an icier potential and pattern for those, then, ...here we are. This appears poised to be the main concern with this.  Despite any model selling since..

[NorEastermass128]

Thinking 3-5” here. 
 

Hubb to Ray FTW with 6+

[tamarack]

1 hour ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Arctic fronts and squalls

zzzz

We know who does well with these Mountains and NNE. 

Maybe a 10 minute snow shower for the Coastal plain folk who make up 85% of posters here. 02$

In other news, 20 of the top 25 in KevinMA's snow table are from CT or MA, and tomorrow's event will only reinforce that trend.  I suspect climo will have had its way before winter is done, however.  And as for squalls, I think I've seen perhaps 3 since moving south from Fort Kent in 1985.  (Not counting the one that caught us on I-80 in western PA 8 years ago.)