weatherwiz Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 On 12/16/2019 at 5:16 PM, Go Kart Mozart said: FOUS shows the surface winds starting at 60 degrees, and backing to 40 through the event. I don't think the Sound is a big deal here. Expand It's always tough...even when you think the sound will be of zero influence it still seems to be a factor lol. What I think happens is there is still enough of a gradient between land/ocean that you still generate at least a localized and very confined area of winds with a southerly/easterly component...it's just so localized and small models won't pick it up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 On 12/16/2019 at 5:12 PM, STILL N OF PIKE said: Its a fraud 5 member. I was on board the last one as something different than analfrontal ....your not getting me on the arctic front train , i suppose it wouldn't be wrong to call you the conductor in such an event. Expand Every one knows the rules Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 Taking a quick look at the south... 1500+ MLCAPE, 150 3km CAPE, all under 300+ effective helicity and 50+ knots 0-6km shear. uh-oh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 On 12/16/2019 at 5:20 PM, weatherwiz said: Taking a quick look at the south... 1500+ MLCAPE, 150 3km CAPE, all under 300+ effective helicity and 50+ knots 0-6km shear. uh-oh Expand What is the bearing of this for tomorrow? TIA. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 For Jerry...15z run 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 On 12/16/2019 at 5:23 PM, moneypitmike said: What is the bearing of this for tomorrow? TIA. Expand For tomorrow...Some of those areas will likely be without power for a while 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 On 12/16/2019 at 5:25 PM, ORH_wxman said: For Jerry...15z run Expand If there was a “everything breaks right for snow” output... I think this would be it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 HRRR is pretty damn juicy at the end of the latest few runs. a good 2-4 is looking likely even right down to the shore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 On 12/16/2019 at 5:28 PM, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: If there was a “everything breaks right for snow” output... I think this would be it Expand The RPM goes through stages from "if everything breaks right" to "if everything goes to sh!t" and everything in between, i think it's written into the code. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJOatleast7 Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 On 12/16/2019 at 5:28 PM, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: If there was a “everything breaks right for snow” output... I think this would be it Expand there's your 10 lolli in Ashfield MA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 On 12/16/2019 at 5:28 PM, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: If there was a “everything breaks right for snow” output... I think this would be it Expand yep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 On 12/16/2019 at 5:23 PM, moneypitmike said: What is the bearing of this for tomorrow? TIA. Expand nothing much that the models haven't incorporated Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 Can we do a severe wx thread in this subforum that's dedicated to severe wx outside of New England? Would be good practice for when our season heats up 2 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 On 12/16/2019 at 5:34 PM, weatherwiz said: Can we do a severe wx thread in this subforum that's dedicated to severe wx outside of New England? Would be good practice for when our season heats up Expand Go for it, you can start one..though i think you'll be talking to yourself in there 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 On 12/16/2019 at 5:25 PM, ORH_wxman said: For Jerry...15z run Expand Thanks Will! Coming in line with other guidance now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 On 12/16/2019 at 5:14 PM, moneypitmike said: Tell me about it. With each melt, I thought perhaps the city could come and get my leaves. Alas, we end up with 2-day windows of opportunity and then covered again. Keep 'em buried til spring I say. As an aside--I just posted a neat/scary/close-call video of yesterday's wind in the obs thread. Expand Yeah... I read about that yesterday on social media but had not seen the video. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 On 12/16/2019 at 5:38 PM, weathafella said: Thanks Will! Coming in line with other guidance now. Expand Yeah....RPM is also getting into the range where its actually useful. RPM along with the other shorter term guidance is starting to pick up on a pretty good thump further south too....for S CT. Prob gonna see advisory snows for most of SNE with a stripe of low end warning somewhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SJonesWX Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 On 12/16/2019 at 5:34 PM, weatherwiz said: Can we do a severe wx thread in this subforum that's dedicated to severe wx outside of New England? Would be good practice for when our season heats up Expand you could post in a thread that is located in a sub-forum for the area in which you are interested. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 On 12/16/2019 at 4:59 PM, CoastalWx said: It’s really cold at 900 MB. That to me tells me that there could be a lot of sleet a little further south than some of those freezing rain algorithms have. Expand sleet, it's always sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJOatleast7 Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 On 12/16/2019 at 5:40 PM, ORH_wxman said: Yeah....RPM is also getting into the range where its actually useful. RPM along with the other shorter term guidance is starting to pick up on a pretty good thump further south too....for S CT. Prob gonna see advisory snows for most of SNE with a stripe of low end warning somewhere. Expand the pike still favored Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 On 12/16/2019 at 5:34 PM, weatherwiz said: Can we do a severe wx thread in this subforum that's dedicated to severe wx outside of New England? Would be good practice for when our season heats up Expand https://www.kalb.com/livestream Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 On 12/16/2019 at 5:44 PM, Bostonseminole said: https://www.kalb.com/livestream Expand that tornado looks nasty on radar Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 Looks like the warm tongue is centered around the 850mb level. GFS looks way out of sync compared to the other 12z models at this level. I'm leaning towards the Meso models in this type of setup, hedging towards a wintrier outcome for most, save for the Cape/Islands and South Coasts. I don;t think the plain rain will penetrate much beyond 20-25 mi N from the S Coast. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 Euro bumping north....ramping up front end QPF too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 On 12/16/2019 at 5:25 PM, ORH_wxman said: For Jerry...15z run Expand Looks about right. 4-6 for many with a lolli for Pete. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 looks like the euro came north a bit, still a mess for ct but it seems like we are reaching consensus now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 12z Euro caving bringing the precip further north up here from 06z, Looks a bit warmer as well, But it was also pretty meager with qpf this far north so just coming more inline with the other models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 On 12/16/2019 at 12:11 PM, The 4 Seasons said: Here's the 6Z ECMWF weenie map for you winter weather weenies Expand For reference. 6z EURO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 On 12/16/2019 at 5:57 PM, dryslot said: 12z Euro caving bringing the precip further north up here from 06z, Looks a bit warmer as well. Expand Still a nice front end thump down this way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 On 12/16/2019 at 5:59 PM, Baroclinic Zone said: Still a nice front end thump down this way. Expand Looks like you flip at some point? No? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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