ORH_wxman Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 On 12/16/2019 at 3:07 AM, CoastalWx said: Man Reggie blasts pike region. Expand Surprised how suppressed it still is....that run may have been more suppressed than 18z...though kind of hard to tell because it was faster. I initially thought it was north but then i looked andsaw it was already collapsing the back end into eastern NY at 42 hours while 48 hours at 18z was still raging in W NY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 On 12/16/2019 at 3:11 AM, ORH_wxman said: Surprised how suppressed it still is....that run may have been more suppressed than 18z...though kind of hard to tell because it was faster. I initially thought it was north but then i looked andsaw it was already collapsing the back end into eastern NY at 42 hours while 48 hours at 18z was still raging in W NY. Expand It was a solid hit from 18z-00z. I was thinking it would be north too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 Toss Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 General 3-5" N of Pike is the safe call right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 On 12/16/2019 at 3:10 AM, HIPPYVALLEY said: This is why you see the term mid-level magic used so often. I have not looked at H7 track tonight but I think a couple of tics N of that in latitude is usually good. Expand Ascent so often in the cool season is sloped ascent too. So the rising air at 850 mb doesn't go straight up, it slopes towards the colder air (i.e. north) and continues rising through 700 mb. That's a signal for widespread, broadbrushed snow. When you start stacking 700 mb lifts on top of 850 mb lift, that's when you get concentrated bands of heavy snow. 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaulyFromPlattsburgh Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 On 12/16/2019 at 3:10 AM, HIPPYVALLEY said: This is why you see the term mid-level magic used so often. I have not looked at H7 track tonight but I think a couple of tics N of that in latitude is usually good. Expand NMM model looks like the NAM. ARW,RGEM south like EURO and ICON Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaulyFromPlattsburgh Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 On 12/16/2019 at 3:18 AM, OceanStWx said: Ascent so often in the cool season is sloped ascent too. So the rising air at 850 mb doesn't go straight up, it slopes towards the colder air (i.e. north) and continues rising through 700 mb. That's a signal for widespread, broadbrushed snow. When you start stacking 700 mb lifts on top of 850 mb lift, that's when you get concentrated bands of heavy snow. Expand thank you I appreciate that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 Pretty decent sleet profile there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 On 12/16/2019 at 3:20 AM, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Pretty decent sleet profile there. Expand Gives staying power to the pack. You are getting Thump -> Pingfest -> Glaze. Enjoy, beats rain. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 On 12/16/2019 at 3:29 AM, HIPPYVALLEY said: Gives staying power to the pack. You are getting Thump -> Pingfest -> Glaze. Enjoy, beats rain. Expand Yup, no complaints. Enjoy your historic month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 Well gfs couldn’t get any warmer so back to a colder look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 Still a shit model, it’s all over the place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 I'll take that GFS run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaulyFromPlattsburgh Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 On 12/16/2019 at 3:46 AM, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Still a shit model, it’s all over the place. Expand the gfs composite 0z is colder while the regular is warmer. weird Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 00z RGEM was way better for south of pike peeps 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 On 12/16/2019 at 3:46 AM, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Still a shit model, it’s all over the place. Expand Reputations die hard Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spanks45 Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 On 12/16/2019 at 3:42 AM, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Well gfs couldn’t get any warmer so back to a colder look. Expand The only model that gets us above freezing so far....I think we touch 32 on the 3k, but barely, Tuesday looking quite wintry down here. I would prefer a few inches of snow before the flip, but beggers can't be choosers I guess.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunderblizzard Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 CMC looks a bit south and colder compared to 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 On 12/16/2019 at 3:53 AM, Spanks45 said: The only model that gets us above freezing so far....I think we touch 32 on the 3k, but barely, Tuesday looking quite wintry down here. I would prefer a few inches of snow before the flip, but beggers can't be choosers I guess.... Expand Mid-levels at your Lat are still going to torch at some point unless we get even more S ticks tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 What a weenie Kuchie on that 00z GFS over the next 4 days, lol. 20 or 30:1 ratios. Ride a horse, save a Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunderblizzard Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 On 12/16/2019 at 4:18 AM, Thunderblizzard said: CMC looks a bit south and colder compared to 12z Expand Looks close to its short range cousin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 On 12/16/2019 at 4:36 AM, Thunderblizzard said: Looks close to its short range cousin Expand We take the 4” on that and are happy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 Ukie looks quite warm at 850 over most of MA and all of CT. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 Tracking the Warm tongue next 24 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunderblizzard Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 Juicier front end on the Euro. Looks like a tick north overall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 Euro may be a little too flat on this run based on observed heights around the shortwave, but overall my concerns are still tied to the RH in the DGZ. Not as solid as I would like to see for a widespread advisory event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 6z nam, rgem, and gfs ticked colder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 On 12/16/2019 at 9:55 AM, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: 6z nam, rgem, and gfs ticked colder. Expand Nam is really cold Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 On 12/16/2019 at 10:01 AM, Snow88 said: Nam is really cold Expand Hrgem as well. SWF to Bos do well. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 Looks like 22 pages for a 2-4" mehvent 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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