The 4 Seasons Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 On 12/16/2019 at 12:39 AM, SnowGoose69 said: One thing I am marginally afraid of tomorrow from about NYC-SW CT is that there could be an earlier surge in the 21-00Z window of precipitation that is unforecast by all models right now. If that happened places like HPN/BDR could see a surprise several inches of snow Expand What gives you that inclination 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 That’s definitely a bump north on the thermals. However, it’s possible as that happens you may have a meatier front end as the WAA is stronger initially. Almost looks like a little CJ action possible close by Tuesday night and Wednesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 16, 2019 Author Share Posted December 16, 2019 On 12/16/2019 at 12:41 AM, The 4 Seasons said: What gives you that inclination Expand Wenniecast Radar Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 On 12/16/2019 at 12:41 AM, The 4 Seasons said: What gives you that inclination Expand There is a boost of mid level RH which caught my eye too. Not sure it’s enough though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 Snow Mon night into Thursday now . Blocks FTW 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 Better RH @h7 up here 90-100%, That's all i want to see for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 On 12/16/2019 at 12:52 AM, Damage In Tolland said: Snow Mon night into Thursday now . Blocks FTW Expand 3” of snow over 48+ hours is Ray’s favorite. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 On 12/16/2019 at 12:55 AM, NorEastermass128 said: 3” of snow over 48+ hours is Ray’s favorite. Expand If these new long duration runs continue you can double those amounts or more . If you think back to past big SNE winters.. they are littered with events like this that seem innocuous, but end up much snowier end game 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 On 12/16/2019 at 1:00 AM, Damage In Tolland said: If these new long duration runs continue you can double those amounts or more . If you think back to past big SNE winters.. they are littered with events like this that seem innocuous, but end up much snowier end game Expand I noted a similar observation before the 12/1 storm. This winter is starting to feel special despite the lack of retention. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nikoss427 Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 When are we expecting this to start, Monday night or more towards Tuesday morning. I'm hoping we can squeek out an early dismissal Tuesday by starting this later. We're already up to 3 snow days in my district. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 Euro def ticked north a bit but it was also better on precip...the two are likely connected in this case. We should also say that it is nowhere near the 18z gfs solution as to not confuse people who aren't reading each model output. Euro was still pretty cold even though it was a bit warmer than 12z. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 I have been watching that arctic shortwave try and bridge the southern stream and the northern stream for the Tuesday storm. However, most models have it as its own system, we need that arctic PV piece to dig more south into the OH Valley. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 On 12/16/2019 at 1:20 AM, ORH_wxman said: Euro def ticked north a bit but it was also better on precip...the two are likely connected in this case. We should also say that it is nowhere near the 18z gfs solution as to not confuse people who aren't reading each model output. Euro was still pretty cold even though it was a bit warmer than 12z. Expand Colder at the surface Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 On 12/16/2019 at 1:20 AM, ORH_wxman said: Euro def ticked north a bit but it was also better on precip...the two are likely connected in this case. We should also say that it is nowhere near the 18z gfs solution as to not confuse people who aren't reading each model output. Euro was still pretty cold even though it was a bit warmer than 12z. Expand It's pretty amazing how we are about 24 hours from the event and the GFS & ECMWF are worlds apart. GFS is literally all rain here and EC is all frozen and barely makes it to 31. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 On 12/16/2019 at 1:23 AM, The 4 Seasons said: It's pretty amazing how we are about 24 hours from the event and the GFS & ECMWF are worlds apart. GFS is literally all rain here and EC is all frozen and barely makes it to 31. Expand I know who’s thermals I’d put my weenie on the line for. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 On 12/16/2019 at 1:23 AM, The 4 Seasons said: It's pretty amazing how we are about 24 hours from the event and the GFS & ECMWF are worlds apart. GFS is literally all rain here and EC is all frozen and barely makes it to 31. Expand The temp issue does not surprise me. The GFS is getting worse over time it seems with low level cold. The evolution of the setup is probably too complicated as well. Models tend to struggle in these setups where you've got a dying wave of WAA precip as we do here then almost an entirely new system taking over. They usually end up massively blowing some aspect of it. This is why the belt from NYC to where you are is so tough tomorrow because they could bust both on the initial WAA area not dying as fast as expected and then the 2nd round being earlier/colder 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 GFS usually has a SE bias, so I’m going with that for now . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FXWX Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 On 12/16/2019 at 1:11 AM, Nikoss427 said: When are we expecting this to start, Monday night or more towards Tuesday morning. I'm hoping we can squeek out an early dismissal Tuesday by starting this later. We're already up to 3 snow days in my district. Expand The early dismissal option is the only option that is not on the table. Late openings Tuesday or cancellations are the 2 most likely outcomes... Early dismissals are in play when an event is arriving during the afternoon, not when it starts the night before or during the predawn hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 On 12/16/2019 at 1:28 AM, SnowGoose69 said: The temp issue does not surprise me. The GFS is getting worse over time it seems with low level cold. The evolution of the setup is probably too complicated as well. Models tend to struggle in these setups where you've got a dying wave of WAA precip as we do here then almost an entirely new system taking over. They usually end up massively blowing some aspect of it. This is why the belt from NYC to where you are is so tough tomorrow because they could bust both on the initial WAA area not dying as fast as expected and then the 2nd round being earlier/colder Expand that would be nice. I'm making a map right now, actually 2, one for ice one for snow. Leaning heavily on the ECMWF/NAM/Canadian, disregarding the GFS. My biggest challenge right now i feel is the immediate shore and whether they flip over to rain or get prolonged icing. Past experience tells me BDR/HVN/GON should pop above 32 into the mid 30s On 12/16/2019 at 1:31 AM, FXWX said: The early dismissal option is the only option that is not on the table. Late openings Tuesday or cancellations are the 2 most likely outcomes... Early dismissals are in play when an event is arriving during the afternoon, not when it starts the night before or during the predawn hours. Expand I forsee widespread closures for most of the state due to icing, with the exception of the immediate shore may just have delays or nothing at all, unless it ends up being much colder there. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 On 12/16/2019 at 1:23 AM, The 4 Seasons said: It's pretty amazing how we are about 24 hours from the event and the GFS & ECMWF are worlds apart. GFS is literally all rain here and EC is all frozen and barely makes it to 31. Expand A lot of that is the GFS is utterly clueless when it comes to LL CAD. You can toss the GFS BL temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 On 12/16/2019 at 1:40 AM, ORH_wxman said: A lot of that is the GFS is utterly clueless when it comes to LL CAD. You can toss the GFS BL temps. Expand The GFS will fumble that right up until go time. Just check the streamlines....northerly flow right to Long Island. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 On 12/16/2019 at 1:23 AM, The 4 Seasons said: It's pretty amazing how we are about 24 hours from the event and the GFS & ECMWF are worlds apart. GFS is literally all rain here and EC is all frozen and barely makes it to 31. Expand Just watch the GFS pull off the coup this time. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 On 12/16/2019 at 1:43 AM, dendrite said: The GFS will fumble that right up until go time. Just check the streamlines....northerly flow right to Long Island. Expand You'd think at some point they would correct an error that has been known in the model for decades now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spanks45 Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 Nam looking a bit better at least early on for us on the souther end of things...definitely a snowier look to start out Tuesday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 First call for Wednesdays mixed bag event. If trends continue ill make an update tomorrow but hoping not to. EC/NAM/Can used for the forecast GFS completely ignored. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunderblizzard Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 Front end is definitely juicier this run of the NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 On 12/16/2019 at 2:02 AM, ORH_wxman said: You'd think at some point they would correct an error that has been known in the model for decades now. Expand I thought the upgrade was supposed to take care of that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 0z Nam pretty juiced on the front end, Going to be a couple tics further north as well, Going to be a bit more icy too for CT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FXWX Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 On 12/16/2019 at 1:35 AM, The 4 Seasons said: that would be nice. I'm making a map right now, actually 2, one for ice one for snow. Leaning heavily on the ECMWF/NAM/Canadian, disregarding the GFS. My biggest challenge right now i feel is the immediate shore and whether they flip over to rain or get prolonged icing. Past experience tells me BDR/HVN/GON should pop above 32 into the mid 30s I forsee widespread closures for most of the state due to icing, with the exception of the immediate shore may just have delays or nothing at all, unless it ends up being much colder there. Expand No disagreement with that... Ongoing winter precipitation events are almost always a cancellation, given desire of bus companies to stay off the roads when precip is still ongoing and opposition from DPW folks who do not like to have their trucks actively treating or scraping with kids standing along the sides of roads or at street corners... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 On 12/16/2019 at 2:07 AM, Spanks45 said: Nam looking a bit better at least early on for us on the souther end of things...definitely a snowier look to start out Tuesday morning. Expand icy look, 850s torch quickly .. not much snow 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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