SnowGoose69 Posted December 15, 2019 Share Posted December 15, 2019 On 12/15/2019 at 2:47 AM, ORH_wxman said: NAM is always fun for some laughs. I think it was powderfreak who once said that nobody would really pay attention to it if it came out at 1 instead of 930...lol. I was spewing a little hyperbole there...some pingers actually prob make it past the pike that run but not by much. Amazing how it changed like 100 miles in one run. Expand The NAM has long has a south bias with these systems. It’s not as bad as it once was but I’m not sure I’ve seen an SWFE where the NAM beyond 48 didn’t verify too far south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 15, 2019 Author Share Posted December 15, 2019 On 12/15/2019 at 2:49 AM, SnowGoose69 said: The NAM has long has a south bias with these systems. It’s not as bad as it once was but I’m not sure I’ve seen an SWFE where the NAM beyond 48 didn’t verify too far south Expand NAM is usually most aggressive with mid level warmth.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 15, 2019 Share Posted December 15, 2019 The NAM never seems to handle these events well...outside of the CAD in the valleys but like Ray said it’s often too aggressive with mlvl warmth. Also seems to want to be too dry at the onset of things. After all the experience we have had with these in the boards...you almost don’t even need to look at models inside if like 24-48 hours to see how these event's will perform I came home to...hardly any snow pack. When I left the morning I still had some inches but it’s virtually gone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 15, 2019 Author Share Posted December 15, 2019 On 12/15/2019 at 3:14 AM, weatherwiz said: The NAM never seems to handle these events well...outside of the CAD in the valleys but like Ray said it’s often too aggressive with mlvl warmth. Also seems to want to be too dry at the onset of things. After all the experience we have had with these in the boards...you almost don’t even need to look at models inside if like 24-48 hours to see how these event's will perform I came home to...hardly any snow pack. When I left the morning I still had some inches but it’s virtually gone Expand Its often right when aggressive with mid level warmth... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 15, 2019 Share Posted December 15, 2019 Defensive dismissal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 15, 2019 Share Posted December 15, 2019 On 12/15/2019 at 3:21 AM, Typhoon Tip said: Defensive dismissal Expand How so? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 15, 2019 Share Posted December 15, 2019 Trends are away from a swfe to an organized low pressure. Later evolution being one key. Watching Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunderblizzard Posted December 15, 2019 Share Posted December 15, 2019 Tick south and colder on the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 15, 2019 Share Posted December 15, 2019 Gfs still the warmest by far so far 18z/0Z tho 0Z a bit colder Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted December 15, 2019 Share Posted December 15, 2019 On 12/15/2019 at 3:20 AM, 40/70 Benchmark said: Its often right when aggressive with mid level warmth... Expand I would even say above 70 percentile in swfe’s Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 15, 2019 Share Posted December 15, 2019 On 12/15/2019 at 2:46 AM, Snow88 said: Block is finally getting realized ? Maybe this will continue to track further south. Expand The block will matter more late in the game, right now the uncertainty is in the shortwave coming onshore out west tonight. 00z run should've had a decent sample on it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunderblizzard Posted December 15, 2019 Share Posted December 15, 2019 On 12/15/2019 at 3:55 AM, weathafella said: Gfs still the warmest by far so far 18z/0Z tho 0Z a bit colder Expand Make that the CMC now... 0z gets fairly toasty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted December 15, 2019 Share Posted December 15, 2019 The models appear to be allowing that large piece of arctic shortwave energy to eject southeast from the main PV low over central Canada which is speeding up in the latest runs to the storm for Tuesday. In fact, I would suffice to say, that the arctic trough is allowing the progress of the Tuesday system to slow down more each run as it catches it and amplifies the flow over the Eastern Seaboard. This shortwave could eventually catch the system entirely and phase within the southern stream disturbance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 15, 2019 Share Posted December 15, 2019 On 12/15/2019 at 4:27 AM, Thunderblizzard said: Make that the CMC now... 0z gets fairly toasty. Expand CMC still is colder or the same as 12z. Euro is a snow event for me. Ok trend can stabilize Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 15, 2019 Share Posted December 15, 2019 On 12/15/2019 at 5:57 AM, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: The models appear to be allowing that large piece of arctic shortwave energy to eject southeast from the main PV low over central Canada which is speeding up in the latest runs to the storm for Tuesday. In fact, I would suffice to say, that the arctic trough is allowing the progress of the Tuesday system to slow down more each run as it catches it and amplifies the flow over the Eastern Seaboard. This shortwave could eventually catch the system entirely and phase within the southern stream disturbance. Expand Seems like a near 0 chance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunderblizzard Posted December 15, 2019 Share Posted December 15, 2019 Euro looks a tick flatter/south than the 18z run, but pretty similar thermally. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 15, 2019 Share Posted December 15, 2019 On 12/15/2019 at 6:12 AM, Thunderblizzard said: Euro looks a tick flatter/south than the 18z run, but pretty similar thermally. Expand How much mix here on the Euro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 15, 2019 Author Share Posted December 15, 2019 On 12/15/2019 at 5:57 AM, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: The models appear to be allowing that large piece of arctic shortwave energy to eject southeast from the main PV low over central Canada which is speeding up in the latest runs to the storm for Tuesday. In fact, I would suffice to say, that the arctic trough is allowing the progress of the Tuesday system to slow down more each run as it catches it and amplifies the flow over the Eastern Seaboard. This shortwave could eventually catch the system entirely and phase within the southern stream disturbance. Expand Put the pipe down Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunderblizzard Posted December 15, 2019 Share Posted December 15, 2019 On 12/15/2019 at 6:13 AM, WinterWolf said: How much mix here on the Euro? Expand Hard to tell exactly, the line goes right over us for a while. The slightest hair cooler than the 18z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 15, 2019 Share Posted December 15, 2019 06 GFS continues cold. Nice advisory event for many. \ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 15, 2019 Share Posted December 15, 2019 On 12/15/2019 at 6:18 AM, Thunderblizzard said: Hard to tell exactly, the line goes right over us for a while. The slightest hair cooler than the 18z run. Expand Practically all snow for the northern counties but it was sheared weak sauce. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 15, 2019 Share Posted December 15, 2019 BOX map looks good for now. Could see more ticks north last minute and there is model uncertainty, so I'd roll with that. Might have to watch tail end of storm for some extended -SN Tuesday evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 15, 2019 Share Posted December 15, 2019 On 12/15/2019 at 11:15 AM, CoastalWx said: BOX map looks good for now. Could see more ticks north last minute and there is model uncertainty, so I'd roll with that. Might have to watch tail end of storm for some extended -SN Tuesday evening. Expand Even those few inches will help with the follow-up cold temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 15, 2019 Share Posted December 15, 2019 On 12/15/2019 at 11:35 AM, moneypitmike said: Even those few inches will help with the follow-up cold temps. Expand Delivery angle will help too. Not quite shot from James Bay, but definitely much better than via the Dakotas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 15, 2019 Share Posted December 15, 2019 On 12/15/2019 at 12:06 PM, OceanStWx said: Delivery angle will help too. Not quite shot from James Bay, but definitely much better than via the Dakotas. Expand The angle of the dangle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 15, 2019 Share Posted December 15, 2019 On 12/15/2019 at 11:15 AM, CoastalWx said: BOX map looks good for now. Could see more ticks north last minute and there is model uncertainty, so I'd roll with that. Might have to watch tail end of storm for some extended -SN Tuesday evening. Expand Days and days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 15, 2019 Share Posted December 15, 2019 On 12/15/2019 at 11:35 AM, moneypitmike said: Even those few inches will help with the follow-up cold temps. Expand 4-8” Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 15, 2019 Share Posted December 15, 2019 6Z Euro is rather suppressed. Actually has decent mid levels to the pike. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 15, 2019 Share Posted December 15, 2019 On 12/15/2019 at 12:16 PM, CoastalWx said: 6Z Euro is rather suppressed. Actually has decent mid levels to the pike. Expand I'm surprised this keeps tickling south. At some point these usually start ticking back north a little but the NAO block seems to be doing some work...toggling more recent runs vs runs 24-30 hours ago, the heights in SE Canada are definitely lower on the more recent runs. The shortwave in the plains is also not as deep. A combo of both of these things. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCweatherNOW Posted December 15, 2019 Share Posted December 15, 2019 On 12/15/2019 at 12:21 PM, ORH_wxman said: I'm surprised this keeps tickling south. At some point these usually start ticking back north a little but the NAO block seems to be doing some work...toggling more recent runs vs runs 24-30 hours ago, the heights in SE Canada are definitely lower on the more recent runs. The shortwave in the plains is also not as deep. A combo of both of these things. Expand Any snowmaps? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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