dendrite Posted December 14, 2019 Share Posted December 14, 2019 2 minutes ago, dryslot said: Not even snowing here at 12z Tuesday NAM is dry in Mass 12z Tue. Flakes up there by late afternoon. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 14, 2019 Share Posted December 14, 2019 Just now, dendrite said: NAM is dry in Mass 12z Tue. Flakes up there by late afternoon. lol Thats what i was using to make a quick reference, This seems to be slowing down on modeling but we also know these come in a few hours sooner then modeled generally. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 14, 2019 Share Posted December 14, 2019 Congrats BTV on the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 14, 2019 Share Posted December 14, 2019 How quickly my mind forgets.....which models did best/worst in the last system? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 14, 2019 Share Posted December 14, 2019 LOL NAM. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted December 14, 2019 Share Posted December 14, 2019 NAM does what the NAM does. Full send mode through ALY, tossed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 14, 2019 Share Posted December 14, 2019 Nam furthest north, Euro furthest south, GFS in between............... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 14, 2019 Share Posted December 14, 2019 I'm throwing all my eggs in the RPM basket (still not quite over at this point) 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 14, 2019 Share Posted December 14, 2019 5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: I'm throwing all my eggs in the RPM basket (still not quite over at this point) We take! Although I think they shat the bed. Or this past Wednesday’s system right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 14, 2019 Share Posted December 14, 2019 3 minutes ago, weathafella said: We take! Although I think they shat the bed. Or this past Wednesday’s system right? Absolutely all out defecation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 14, 2019 Share Posted December 14, 2019 Usually it’s the RPM driving these into Montreal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted December 14, 2019 Share Posted December 14, 2019 Def not over yet, according to the NWS it's still 4-5 days out... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted December 14, 2019 Share Posted December 14, 2019 19 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: I'm throwing all my eggs in the RPM basket (still not quite over at this point) Ouch. Thank God it sucks at this range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunderblizzard Posted December 14, 2019 Share Posted December 14, 2019 18z ICON looks like it's even further south than the RPM... deadly duo we got here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted December 14, 2019 Share Posted December 14, 2019 Icons mostly snow for CT. I don't know about it's skill score but i trust it the least over EC/UK/GEM global suite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 14, 2019 Share Posted December 14, 2019 1 minute ago, The 4 Seasons said: Icons mostly snow for CT. I don't know about it's skill score but i trust it the least over EC/UK/GEM global suite. It actually resembles the UKMet/Euro right now more than the GFS/NAM do Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted December 14, 2019 Share Posted December 14, 2019 Just now, SnowGoose69 said: It actually resembles the UKMet/Euro right now more than the GFS/NAM do It does, just speaking in general terms...meaning that it doesn't really give me much confidence if it adds weight, or lack thereof, to the other globals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted December 14, 2019 Share Posted December 14, 2019 Dare I say the 18z NAM is onto something —only with regard to intensity though. Thinking “strung out” will be lost as the go to vernacular describing this as we get closer in. The surface low likely —as it typically does in these situations—ends up somewhere over SE MA... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 14, 2019 Share Posted December 14, 2019 That vort is on the uptick. RGEM this morning started that trend. Plenty of time. As it is now the Euro has a solid 6 to 8 Hunchie Ray Pickles Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted December 14, 2019 Share Posted December 14, 2019 Latest OKX/BOX. Looks reasonable to me at this lead time. I'd probably go in the 1-3" for most of CT atm, though i haven't looked at it too closely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DavisStraight Posted December 14, 2019 Share Posted December 14, 2019 35 minutes ago, Thunderblizzard said: 18z ICON looks like it's even further south than the RPM... deadly duo we got here. Icon looks like all snow here, very little mixing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted December 14, 2019 Share Posted December 14, 2019 18Z GFS looks pretty similar to 12Z to me, a hair south at the sfc and a tick colder at the sfc. Mid levels looks roughly the same Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 14, 2019 Share Posted December 14, 2019 4 minutes ago, DavisStraight said: Icon looks like all snow here, very little mixing. RPM/ICON/JMA combo....absolutely deadly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 14, 2019 Share Posted December 14, 2019 Looks to me like the typical 3-6” pike south and 5-10” north . Sleet gets to about NH border. Probably not far from how it ends up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 14, 2019 Share Posted December 14, 2019 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: RPM/ICON/JMA combo....absolutely deadly. Actually the 18z RGEM is trying to get on board with that unbeatable triplet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunderblizzard Posted December 14, 2019 Share Posted December 14, 2019 We've got ourselves a weenie coalition forming Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzard24 Posted December 14, 2019 Share Posted December 14, 2019 i dont know what boston national weather service seeing in models they are trending colder last three runs . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 14, 2019 Share Posted December 14, 2019 1 minute ago, blizzard24 said: i dont know what boston national weather service seeing in models they are trending colder last three runs . Give ‘em a call and tell them what’s up. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 14, 2019 Share Posted December 14, 2019 Just did a map. These setups use to drive me nuts but they seem to be pretty straight forward...a few inches of snow, then some sleet/ice , then some rain. Hardest aspect is determining how much sleet vs. how much freezing rain. Soundings at BDL do have extending period for some freezing rain but I don't think we're looking at a significant icing event...enough though to make for ad travel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted December 14, 2019 Share Posted December 14, 2019 4 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Indicies are a means of measuring hemispheric height and pressure patterns, which modulate our sensible weather. Any decent guidance will reflect this. Indices don't modulate weather. Weather does what it does. Indices are a statistical way of observing and measuring it. The idea that climate indicates influence weather is a common causal fallacy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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