Kitzbuhel Craver Posted December 14, 2019 Share Posted December 14, 2019 Lol, you’re right... my b Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 14, 2019 Share Posted December 14, 2019 Just now, dendrite said: Be wary of the euro clown maps for SWFEs at a lot of sites too because of the lack of available levels in the algorithms. If the clown isn’t seeing a warm layer above H85 it may be calling it snow. Just sayin’. Given this is pretty weak if it did produce decent QPF there would likely be an extended period of snow. No question you'd have to watch the mid levels but this is not an event where you'd torch the mid levels after only a 1-2-3 hour period of snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 14, 2019 Share Posted December 14, 2019 4 minutes ago, Kitzbuhel Craver said: JB=Fox news fyp 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 14, 2019 Share Posted December 14, 2019 22 minutes ago, moneypitmike said: Pretty sure we’re already seeing that. Not at all 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 14, 2019 Share Posted December 14, 2019 12Z NAM looks like a hot mess Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 14, 2019 Share Posted December 14, 2019 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: Not at all MPM at it again. He and TBlizz have that region covered with ‘Meh’ manure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 14, 2019 Share Posted December 14, 2019 1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: MPM at it again. He and TBlizz have that region covered with ‘Meh’ manure. Usually you can just gloss over and ignore those acts. But in this case I think MPM really believes it. It’s gotten better organized each run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 14, 2019 Author Share Posted December 14, 2019 The system is attenuating and mid levels are warming on approach...I don't see this one over performing like the last one, but maybe that changes between now and Monday night.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 14, 2019 Share Posted December 14, 2019 This looks like a weak piece of garbage. Most will be lucky to walk away with 1-3”... mainly because it’s junk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 14, 2019 Share Posted December 14, 2019 Gfs south again More tweaks and this will be good for SNE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 14, 2019 Share Posted December 14, 2019 GFS is a warning event up here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 14, 2019 Share Posted December 14, 2019 Just now, dendrite said: GFS is a warning event up here. That's a nice look for us, All snow as we stay isothermal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 14, 2019 Share Posted December 14, 2019 Are the models starting to feel the effects of the NAO dipping ? This can be the reason why the models are trending colder. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 14, 2019 Share Posted December 14, 2019 Every one knows the rules. GFS thermals, save a horse, sleet is closer than it appears, 2 to 4 lollies to 6 SNE. Good snow for CNE 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 14, 2019 Share Posted December 14, 2019 Just now, dryslot said: That's a nice look for us, All snow as we stay isothermal. H8 is the warmest layer, but we're pretty safe on this run. 0.75" QPF too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 14, 2019 Share Posted December 14, 2019 1 minute ago, dendrite said: H8 is the warmest layer, but we're pretty safe on this run. 0.75" QPF too. We would take that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 14, 2019 Share Posted December 14, 2019 A nice moderate event for some. Mixed precip. Not the fluff we have had. Typical mid December stuff. Some will get mostly rain. Some will get mostly frozen. In Euro we trust Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 14, 2019 Share Posted December 14, 2019 26 minutes ago, dendrite said: GFS is a warning event up here. I think you guys may finally get something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 14, 2019 Share Posted December 14, 2019 Really? LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... With near zonal flow a progressive patter develops, and dry conditions will be short lived into early Monday. Surface high briefly builds behind the departing low to the north, and moves offshore Monday. Breezy conditions will be diminishing Sunday night as the high builds. The next system to impact the forecast area comes Monday as the high pushes offshore and a warm front develops and approaches from the southwest while at the same time, an area of low pressure develops over the Ohio Valley. There is some uncertainty as to how quickly the cold air will be replaced as high pressure tracks off shore Monday. With the progressive low have leaned toward a slightly warmer solutions, unlike the GFS and ECMWF. This low is forecast to track along the frontal boundary, moving in the vicinity of the forecast area Tuesday. Models show that the low will not be particularly strong as it heads over our region, but there could be a period of moderate precipitation Monday night associated with the approaching warm front. Uncertainty with model solutions Monday night onward will make precipitation type difficult to forecast at this point. However, do think thermal profiles will be cold enough at the start to support all snow at the start for most places, with a quick changeover to rain along the coast by mid Monday morning. However, QPF amounts will be light at this point, so little in the way of accumulation is expected. Despite warming aloft, there may be enough cold air in the lower levels where there may be an extended period of wintry precipitation inland, with freezing rain among the precipitation types. Again, this is 4 to 5 days out and the forecast is likely to change over the next couple of days. Associated cold front will move through late Monday night into Tuesday. Canadian high pressure builds in Wednesday through the end of next week, bringing below normal temperatures, but dry conditions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 14, 2019 Share Posted December 14, 2019 Must be the same met who put up flood warnings for last night...this morning. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 14, 2019 Share Posted December 14, 2019 47 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I think you guys may finally get something. I think north of the pike in northern MA is in on it too. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted December 14, 2019 Share Posted December 14, 2019 Ray to Dendy special. 3-6” All frozen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 14, 2019 Share Posted December 14, 2019 I’m on the other end. With that cold press and high nosing, I think we see this continue the trend south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted December 14, 2019 Share Posted December 14, 2019 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: I’m on the other end. With that cold press and high nosing, I think we see this continue the trend south Kind of agree with you there. Let’s see how it looks tomorrow night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 14, 2019 Share Posted December 14, 2019 6 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: I’m on the other end. With that cold press and high nosing, I think we see this continue the trend south Yes and it’s also not 4-5 days out. Strange FD there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 14, 2019 Share Posted December 14, 2019 1 hour ago, dryslot said: We would take that Congrats. What’s with the large swath of green screw zone! I want my qpf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 14, 2019 Share Posted December 14, 2019 2 minutes ago, moneypitmike said: Congrats. What’s with the large swath of green screw zone! I want my qpf. I think you will be fine, Not a fan of the weak shredded look, We shall see where it goes, I'll have more interest on whats being modeled tomorrow and moreso at 0z Monday. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 14, 2019 Share Posted December 14, 2019 One thing we have seen in the early part of this season is the tendency for events to trend more wintry. Hopefully this can do the same without getting shredded a la Nam. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 14, 2019 Author Share Posted December 14, 2019 25 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: I’m on the other end. With that cold press and high nosing, I think we see this continue the trend south Surface, totally plausible, but mid levels are what they are. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 14, 2019 Share Posted December 14, 2019 1 hour ago, CoastalWx said: I think you guys may finally get something. I like the look up here. Some mid level fingers of fronto possible with higher ratios. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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