arlwx Posted December 15, 2019 Share Posted December 15, 2019 From the latest LWX discussion: .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... An area of low pressure will be getting organized over the middle Mississippi River valley this evening into the overnight. Precipitation associated with the warm front attached to this system will spread into western portions of the CWA late tonight. Precipitation should start as mostly, or all, snow for a brief period tonight into early Monday morning, particularly over eastern WV and western MD. However, warm air aloft will quickly change precipitation over to a wintry mix Monday morning, and most areas change over to rain by the afternoon. The best shot to see any accumulating snowfall will be well to the north and west of I-95, particularly across eastern WV and western MD. Amounts of 1-2 inches are possible as you get north and west of the I-95 corridor, with amounts of 2-4 inches possible across eastern WV and western MD (with some isolated higher amounts possible). That being said, could still be seeing a mix of wintry precip Monday morning during the morning rush. Not expecting any big impacts across the DC/Baltimore metro areas at this time. Without a cold surface high to the north to keep the cold air locked in place, any mixed precipitation is likely to be brief and light, with only trace or light amounts of ice expected. The one exception may be near the Mason-Dixon Line and across the Allegheny and Potomac Highlands. A layer of cold air may be tough to scour out due to light winds underneath the subsidence inversion. Did allow for some more freezing rain across these areas. Rain/showers will continue off and on through Tue until frontal passage late Tue. Given the expected wintry mix and potential for hazardous travel conditions Monday morning, winter weather advisories are likely to be required for NW parts of the fcst area. (snip) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted December 15, 2019 Share Posted December 15, 2019 The slug of moisture that will be our WAA precip is worlds away out in Kansas but...looking fairly robust on radar. Returns knocking on the door in St. Louis. Ahead of schedule by a good bit comparing 6z runs for this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted December 15, 2019 Share Posted December 15, 2019 6z EURO WB for rush hour time Monday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted December 15, 2019 Share Posted December 15, 2019 WB EURO snowfall afternoon Monday holds steady Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted December 15, 2019 Share Posted December 15, 2019 8 hours ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Mesos are coming in and colder again: I wish I could use both the weenie and laugh emojis for this post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 15, 2019 Share Posted December 15, 2019 38 minutes ago, osfan24 said: I wish I could use both the weenie and laugh emojis for this post. Just quote it 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 15, 2019 Share Posted December 15, 2019 You can’t make this stuff up 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 15, 2019 Share Posted December 15, 2019 Only casually tracking this as it really would have to come in fast and heavy for my area to see more than a trace. I would be thrilled with a half inch of frozen so I can declare an official 1" for the month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 15, 2019 Share Posted December 15, 2019 I'm not quite sure what to make of this. I do know I will be driving at 6am tomorrow so that could be fun. NAM says sleet for JYO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted December 15, 2019 Share Posted December 15, 2019 WB NAM 12K at 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 15, 2019 Share Posted December 15, 2019 6 minutes ago, Weather Will said: WB NAM 12K at 12z Must not count sleet as snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted December 15, 2019 Share Posted December 15, 2019 12k also has a dry slot after 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted December 15, 2019 Share Posted December 15, 2019 Looks again like last week plus an inch. If you commute between 5-7am likely to be slippery NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 15, 2019 Share Posted December 15, 2019 NAM almost makes this all frozen and then nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 15, 2019 Share Posted December 15, 2019 8 minutes ago, Weather Will said: Looks again like last week plus an inch. If you commute between 5-7am likely to be slippery NW. This is not like last week. These events actually can produce a surprise versus more likely a disappointment. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted December 15, 2019 Share Posted December 15, 2019 I agree it seems more favorable than last week at least outside the Beltways. Guess we will find out how much more soon enough! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 15, 2019 Share Posted December 15, 2019 Roads are brined up this way. Had to be up in York, PA earlier and it’s always funny seeing the sharp cut-off of the brine treatment at the PA line Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 15, 2019 Share Posted December 15, 2019 Always love overperforming warmth the day before snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 15, 2019 Share Posted December 15, 2019 12Z GFS moves the max stripe a little north this run. Has more frozen for everyone as well. Looking good for an inch or two in the favored spots (Winchester to Carroll). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted December 15, 2019 Share Posted December 15, 2019 Would be cool if I get an inch of snow with sleet on top! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
peribonca Posted December 15, 2019 Share Posted December 15, 2019 Pretty amazing temperature gradient from Garrett county to the coastal plain. We're sitting in the mid 50s and they're in the mid 20s. Precip in Midwest is way ahead of schedule compared to 12z runs with returns showing up in Indiana currently Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted December 15, 2019 Share Posted December 15, 2019 Not cold here, 56F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted December 15, 2019 Share Posted December 15, 2019 WB EURO 12z hold serve for NW areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted December 15, 2019 Share Posted December 15, 2019 Looks like the slightest nudge north, but probably just noise. I expect it to slightly bump north from that depiction anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted December 15, 2019 Share Posted December 15, 2019 4 hours ago, WinterWxLuvr said: You can’t make this stuff up Coming in quick and hard. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted December 15, 2019 Share Posted December 15, 2019 7 minutes ago, mattie g said: Coming in quick and hard. Looks like fast and wet to me. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrs.J Posted December 15, 2019 Share Posted December 15, 2019 3 hours ago, mappy said: Roads are brined up this way. Had to be up in York, PA earlier and it’s always funny seeing the sharp cut-off of the brine treatment at the PA line Was coming back to Frederick from Lovettesville just before noon. Where 15 N comes into 340 from the S one lane had been brined already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 15, 2019 Share Posted December 15, 2019 Enough brine on 70 to turn the Chesapeake into a salt bay with runoff. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted December 15, 2019 Share Posted December 15, 2019 WB 18z 12K NAM at 12Z. Tick south 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted December 15, 2019 Share Posted December 15, 2019 2019 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 1 PM EST MONDAY...Includes NW MC, NW BC, NW HC, W LD Points North and West * WHAT...Mixed precipitation expected. Total snow accumulations of 1 to 3 inches and ice accumulations of around one tenth of an inch. * WHERE...Portions of north central and northeast Maryland as well as the eastern panhandle of West Virginia. * WHEN...From midnight tonight to 1 PM EST Monday. Snow will overspread the area between midnight and 3 AM overnight and it will change to a mixture of sleet and freezing rain Monday morning. Precipitation will eventually change to rain for most areas Monday afternoon. * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous conditions will impact the morning commute with snow covered and slippery roads and as well as slippery sidewalks. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Slow down and use caution while traveling. When venturing outside, watch your first few steps taken on steps, sidewalks, and driveways, which could be icy and slippery, increasing your risk of a fall and injury. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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