Bob Chill Posted December 14, 2019 Share Posted December 14, 2019 No warm nose at onset. Decent sounding. Need slug to be juicy and let chips fall. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MountainGeek Posted December 14, 2019 Share Posted December 14, 2019 32 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Double edged sword with the mountains... remove them and CAD events are gone forever. I don't want to live in that world. Lol I'm not worried about qpf wobbles as much as not having a column that supports snow for more than 15 minutes. Nams are the same or slightly better at the surface and 850s compared to 12z. That's nice to see. Wouldn't we be better off strip-mining between Pittsburgh/Cumberland/Chambersburg and putting in another great lake? Keep the CAD when needed, plus we get legit lake-effect going on with those cold dry NW winds that we do so well around here. Agree that it's going to come down to the column and how long we can hang on.....do you think timing may help out as well? If we could get an early onset with a good juicy slug going before the sun hits that can't be a bad thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 14, 2019 Share Posted December 14, 2019 Still too far out. Trust the globals (if anything) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 14, 2019 Share Posted December 14, 2019 I’d be pretty happy with the 3k NAM. About 5 hours of light snow with temps near freezing for 0.5-2”. Would stick to all the trees well and be very pretty before getting washed away. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 14, 2019 Share Posted December 14, 2019 GFS seems pretty steady Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 14, 2019 Share Posted December 14, 2019 4 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: GFS seems pretty steady Precip moved south again, but snow/ice looks basically unchanged. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MountainGeek Posted December 14, 2019 Share Posted December 14, 2019 7 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: GFS seems pretty steady Could be just noise, but looks like we lose the 850s a smidge earlier on the 18z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 14, 2019 Share Posted December 14, 2019 7 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Precip moved south again, but snow/ice looks basically unchanged. I noticed that too. The rain shield move south noticeably. Don’t know if that means we might hang on to cold longer or not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 14, 2019 Share Posted December 14, 2019 7 minutes ago, MountainGeek said: Could be just noise, but looks like we lose the 850s a smidge earlier on the 18z GFS. Looks like the same in the NAM. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MountainGeek Posted December 14, 2019 Share Posted December 14, 2019 13 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Looks like the same in the NAM. Yup although the NAM looks like it hangs on a few more hrs than the GFS. My understanding is that the known GFS cold bias mostly affects the med and long range, so maybe the NAM will be better at sniffing out the cold......hug the model that gives you what you want! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 14, 2019 Share Posted December 14, 2019 29 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: I noticed that too. The rain shield move south noticeably. Don’t know if that means we might hang on to cold longer or not. All comes down to the initial slug. Snow producing column will be short lived so as juicy as possible upfront is our path to more than 1". If precip comes in weak it will be ugly. Need heavier rates/evap cooling or warm nose will rush in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 15, 2019 Share Posted December 15, 2019 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 15, 2019 Share Posted December 15, 2019 5 minutes ago, Ji said: 18z Def better than 12z with initial slug of precip in both qpf and trajectory. Good run and room for improvement. Warm fronts often juice up in the short range. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 15, 2019 Share Posted December 15, 2019 00z NAM at 45 (21z MON) says frozen precip still ongoing in C MD/N VA/NW VA ETA: Still frozen in NW VA at 03z TUES lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted December 15, 2019 Share Posted December 15, 2019 2 minutes ago, yoda said: 00z NAM at 45 (21z MON) says frozen precip still ongoing in C MD/N VA/NW VA ETA: Still frozen in NW VA at 03z TUES lol We know cold likes to hold longer. Makes perfect sense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 15, 2019 Share Posted December 15, 2019 Implies an all frozen even up here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 15, 2019 Share Posted December 15, 2019 lol the 00z 12km NAM snow map is hilarious 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted December 15, 2019 Share Posted December 15, 2019 The major caveat that it is the 36 hour HRRR aside, the 00z HRRR looks really nice. Might even give poor old me a flake in Charlottesville. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 15, 2019 Share Posted December 15, 2019 00z 3k NAM looks colder than the 00z 12km NAM FWIW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted December 15, 2019 Share Posted December 15, 2019 5 minutes ago, yoda said: lol the 00z 12km NAM snow map is hilarious This! Like Ravens purpled... Edit: Raven NAM’d. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 15, 2019 Share Posted December 15, 2019 We know the NAM is on some serious crack...enjoy that stripe of 8 to 10 @Bob Chill Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 15, 2019 Share Posted December 15, 2019 2 minutes ago, stormtracker said: We know the NAM is on some serious crack...enjoy that stripe of 8 to 10 @Bob Chill You mean I can’t pin all my hopes on the NAM? WTF? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 15, 2019 Share Posted December 15, 2019 00z RGEM says its snowing at DCA from around 08z to around 13z MON Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 15, 2019 Share Posted December 15, 2019 5 minutes ago, stormtracker said: We know the NAM is on some serious crack...enjoy that stripe of 8 to 10 @Bob Chill It is but in fairness that’s mostly freezing rain after 2/3 inches of snow. The snow map counts ice as 10-1 snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 15, 2019 Share Posted December 15, 2019 1 minute ago, yoda said: 00z RGEM says its snowing at DCA from around 08z to around 13z MON It also has increased and shifted south the snowfall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 15, 2019 Share Posted December 15, 2019 00z GFS coming in a lil colder at 36 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 15, 2019 Share Posted December 15, 2019 Not a lot to be excited with on the gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 15, 2019 Share Posted December 15, 2019 Not a lot to be excited with on the gfsIt actually has Loudoun still frozen at 18z which wasnt the case before Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 15, 2019 Share Posted December 15, 2019 Mesos are coming in and colder again: 2 3 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted December 15, 2019 Share Posted December 15, 2019 Back to sleep 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now