yoda Posted December 14, 2019 Share Posted December 14, 2019 Both NAMs moved south again at 06z... 12km NAM more interested than the 3k NAM with the frozen precip... 12k NAM run likely overdone but pretty nice for MDers 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 14, 2019 Share Posted December 14, 2019 06z ICON also pushed south as well... gets snow or frozen into N VA and DC metro from 06z to around 15z MON 32 degree line sits in N MD till 06z TUES 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted December 14, 2019 Share Posted December 14, 2019 I feel a NAM'n coming on at some point today.... Was hoping for a good 2-4 thump out of this but looks more like 1-2" in favored areas. Close enough to still change/juice up.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted December 14, 2019 Share Posted December 14, 2019 This is pretty exciting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted December 14, 2019 Share Posted December 14, 2019 And still room for improvement Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 14, 2019 Share Posted December 14, 2019 DO NOT trust the NAM’s. Ever. But I do like the south trends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 14, 2019 Share Posted December 14, 2019 We need a 6z euro posting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted December 14, 2019 Share Posted December 14, 2019 Pretty much all frozen up to 21z for NW areas....0z for far N and NW zones. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted December 14, 2019 Share Posted December 14, 2019 Baby bumpin our way to an event! Keep ticking south... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted December 14, 2019 Share Posted December 14, 2019 3 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: We need a 6z euro posting 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 14, 2019 Share Posted December 14, 2019 NAM is depicting a weak surface wave off the VA Capes after 50 hrs. Also ticked s with that. There us now a slight N of due E trajectory irt 10m wind vectors. One would think that feature will be a player as the event nears and could keep borderline areas frozen longer IF this feature on the 12k is real. Anyone else seeing a sleet/ice threat developing with this in those favored valley and inland areas? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted December 14, 2019 Share Posted December 14, 2019 1 minute ago, Ralph Wiggum said: NAM is depicting a weak surface wave off the VA Capes after 50 hrs. Also ticked s with that. There us now a slight N if due E trajectory irt 10m wind vectors. One would think that feature will be a player as the event nears and could keep borderline areas frozen longer. Anyone else seeing a sleet/ice threat developing with this in those favored valley and inland areas? Definitely....I know @losetoa6 stayed around freezing most of the day yesterday. I could see those areas and out towards Winchester struggling to get above freezing until Tuesday. If the precip is there...could be a pretty nice event for the favored areas. 1-3 inches of snow to sleet and zr for almost all of Monday. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted December 14, 2019 Share Posted December 14, 2019 NAM is trending in the right direction unlike last week. Positive sign. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 14, 2019 Share Posted December 14, 2019 Gfs ticking colder at the surface. Someone could get a decent ice event out of this on top of whatever snow falls. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 14, 2019 Share Posted December 14, 2019 GFS now takes this low from Nashville to south of Huntington WV. If we had about a 1030 sitting over Maine you’d be staring down a WSW event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 14, 2019 Share Posted December 14, 2019 2 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: GFS now takes this low from Nashville to south of Huntington WV. If we had about a 1030 sitting over Maine you’d be staring down a WSW event. Perhaps a few more ticks in the cards. I think my area needs 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 14, 2019 Share Posted December 14, 2019 All the mesos (nam, arw, nmm, rgem, hrdps) look half decent at 12z monday. Mid level and surface trends have been mostly good so far today. They all have this same general idea with mid level temps with juicy precip inbound: 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 14, 2019 Share Posted December 14, 2019 Yea, this is cherry picked but check this sounding out... Globals have more of a warm nose between 800-750mb. This sounding is money. I'm huggin until something better pops up 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted December 14, 2019 Share Posted December 14, 2019 29 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Yea, this is cherry picked but check this sounding out... Globals have more of a warm nose between 800-750mb. This sounding is money. I'm huggin until something better pops up Bob, your weather knowledge is quite expansive. I enjoy your daily Analysis very much trend has been our friend the past 24 hours. Let’s see how we look in another 24. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 14, 2019 Share Posted December 14, 2019 1 minute ago, jayyy said: Bob, your weather knowledge is quite expansive. I enjoy your daily Analysis very much trend has been our friend the past 24 hours. Let’s see how we look in another 24. Right now LWX is not very bullish at least in my zone. Makes sense but no mention of frozen at the moment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 14, 2019 Share Posted December 14, 2019 Euro did inch southward, but it's a touch drier on the front-end. More in line with other guidance now. dusting-2" of snow before mix it looks like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 14, 2019 Share Posted December 14, 2019 Just now, WxUSAF said: Euro did inch southward, but it's a touch drier on the front-end. More in line with other guidance now. dusting-2" of snow before mix it looks like. Yea, trimmed qpf when it counts but still locked in for a period of snowfall. I liked the temps on the 12z mesos. Warm fronts can juice up in the short range. Still universal consensus for the biggest event of the year. Lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted December 14, 2019 Share Posted December 14, 2019 Morning rush on Monday will be interesting from I70 North and east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 14, 2019 Share Posted December 14, 2019 Mesos have been doing well with midlevel and surface temps this year. Still too far out in time to hug them but I'm pretty interested in the 18z meso temp trends. This time tomorrow we can probably hug the 3k nam's soundings as they should be more accurate than the globals Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted December 14, 2019 Share Posted December 14, 2019 Just looking at the changes in the precip over Indiana on this 18z NAM run vs. 12z you have to think this is gonna be a good run for somebody. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted December 14, 2019 Share Posted December 14, 2019 11 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: Just looking at the changes in the precip over Indiana on this 18z NAM run vs. 12z you have to think this is gonna be a good run for somebody. 12k looks like a pretty decent snow hit for NW va and md...not much makes it over the blue ridge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted December 14, 2019 Share Posted December 14, 2019 1 minute ago, LP08 said: 12k looks like a pretty decent snow hit for NW va and md...not much makes it over the blue ridge. Yeah those mountains are pesky... we still need to come together and get enough money to raise money to tear those down. But this seems like a pretty significant run-to-run change. Was hoping the amped-ness would show up on our side of the Blue Ridge. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MountainGeek Posted December 14, 2019 Share Posted December 14, 2019 8 minutes ago, LP08 said: 12k looks like a pretty decent snow hit for NW va and md...not much makes it over the blue ridge. Check the accumulated positive snow depth change.....much less impressive. Verbatim most of the "snow" would be sleet or FZR....but IMO any form of frozen slop/mix is more interesting than just plain rain. Gotta hope we can keep "trending" colder as we get closer.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteoutMD Posted December 14, 2019 Share Posted December 14, 2019 looks slightly warmer in our area 540 line ticked north ever so slightly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 14, 2019 Share Posted December 14, 2019 Just now, NorthArlington101 said: Yeah those mountains are pesky... we still need to come together and get enough money to raise money to tear those down. but this seems like a pretty significant run-to-run change. Was hoping the amped-ness would show up on our side of the Blue Ridge. Double edged sword with the mountains... remove them and CAD events are gone forever. I don't want to live in that world. Lol I'm not worried about qpf wobbles as much as not having a column that supports snow for more than 15 minutes. Nams are the same or slightly better at the surface and 850s compared to 12z. That's nice to see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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