Stebo Posted December 14, 2019 Share Posted December 14, 2019 5 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: NAM . It is a bit wonky how it handles the vort max but definitely a step in the right direction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted December 14, 2019 Share Posted December 14, 2019 The 3k NAM is a good two counties south of the 12k NAM. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 14, 2019 Share Posted December 14, 2019 Nam is an ez toss 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted December 14, 2019 Share Posted December 14, 2019 commentary on the 00Z NAM step in the right direction. Who knew...I'll take a Halloween redux and be thrilled 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted December 14, 2019 Share Posted December 14, 2019 A bit far out for 3k level, just from what I've seen. Another look at the 18z Euro EPS mean. I'd be fine with this, especially if we could get a little more juice in the end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted December 14, 2019 Share Posted December 14, 2019 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted December 14, 2019 Share Posted December 14, 2019 Rumor is RPM gives ORD 5" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 14, 2019 Share Posted December 14, 2019 GFS is really struggling, getting slower and slower with the trough ejection and struggling with the low location. What a garbage model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted December 14, 2019 Share Posted December 14, 2019 31 minutes ago, Stebo said: GFS is really struggling, getting slower and slower with the trough ejection and struggling with the low location. What a garbage model. Clearly the NAM has picked up the torch for us Mitt Peeps. GFS carried it so long it just got tired. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted December 14, 2019 Share Posted December 14, 2019 0z GEM comes in as an almost carbon copy of the 18z EPS mean, and maybe a bit more moist. Edit- Can add 0z GEFS to the "almost carbon copy" list Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted December 14, 2019 Share Posted December 14, 2019 16 minutes ago, RogueWaves said: 0z GEM comes in as an almost carbon copy of the 18z EPS mean, and maybe a bit more moist. GEM trying to pick up on some lake enhancement. It’s the only model really showing that though, so probably nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 14, 2019 Share Posted December 14, 2019 I'll wait for the 00z Euro but if it comes in like previous runs I think we could safely toss the GFS as being shit. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chuckster2012 Posted December 14, 2019 Share Posted December 14, 2019 51 minutes ago, RogueWaves said: Clearly the NAM has picked up the torch for us Mitt Peeps. GFS carried it so long it just got tired. Now I'm back to all rain. The Euro is my only hope... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted December 14, 2019 Share Posted December 14, 2019 7 minutes ago, Stebo said: I'll wait for the 00z Euro but if it comes in like previous runs I think we could safely toss the GFS as being shit. Are you onto the Ops now? Earlier you said to ride the Ensembles to minimize the noise of bouncing Ops. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted December 14, 2019 Share Posted December 14, 2019 On 12/12/2019 at 1:29 AM, chuckster2012 said: As usual, I'm in the warm sector again... 39 minutes ago, chuckster2012 said: Now I'm back to all rain. The Euro is my only hope... Could it be....climo? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted December 14, 2019 Share Posted December 14, 2019 Euro Op to 54 does NOT look north fwiw. Need to get some SW to NE tilt going with this thing. (1st wave) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted December 14, 2019 Share Posted December 14, 2019 Euro south, almost similar to GFS. Storm cancel.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chuckster2012 Posted December 14, 2019 Share Posted December 14, 2019 8 minutes ago, RogueWaves said: Could it be....climo? Of course, but it's not like we don't get snow in December! I remember several big snows. This week in 1989 we got 7" ... In the infamous winter of 77-78 we had near 60" , so I can hope. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 14, 2019 Share Posted December 14, 2019 1 hour ago, RogueWaves said: Are you onto the Ops now? Earlier you said to ride the Ensembles to minimize the noise of bouncing Ops. When you get this close the ops have more merit. Still worthy to look at ensembles especially if they are dramatically different. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 14, 2019 Share Posted December 14, 2019 20 minutes ago, Snowstorms said: Euro south, almost similar to GFS. Storm cancel.. Went very strong with that shortwave across canada early on. That is going to be a major player with respect to height rises ahead of this system. Problem is it is in canada and its data sparse up there and unlike the main system, it isn't ever going to come into the US so that is going to be a question mark for a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted December 14, 2019 Share Posted December 14, 2019 Went very strong with that shortwave across canada early on. That is going to be a major player with respect to height rises ahead of this system. Problem is it is in canada and its data sparse up there and unlike the main system, it isn't ever going to come into the US so that is going to be a question mark for a while.I'm hoping this works out up here. The fact that even the Euro has been very unstable shows it's a tricky forecast. NWP experts would say that RAOB sampling isn't that big a deal for the models but anecdotally in the past several years it seems that better sampling really does help. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 14, 2019 Share Posted December 14, 2019 Just now, RCNYILWX said: I'm hoping this works out up here. The fact that even the Euro has been very unstable shows it's a tricky forecast. NWP experts would say that RAOB sampling isn't that big a deal for the models but anecdotally in the past several years it seems that better sampling really does help. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk Unfortunately NWP experts are going to say their models are infallible and most of the times they aren't going to be using them to forecast day to day. We have seen better sampling make a huge difference especially in situations like this where you have so many moving parts. I mean we have monster storm in the northeast, the ridge behind it, how much confluence ends up behind it, 2 systems in Canada and the main system itself which doesn't want to figure out if it's coming out all at once or in pieces. I really feel for you guys in NWS on this one because there are like 5 different outcomes and all could be right. Hell there are even a few GEFS members that bring rain almost to here. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted December 14, 2019 Share Posted December 14, 2019 1 minute ago, RCNYILWX said: I'm hoping this works out up here. The fact that even the Euro has been very unstable shows it's a tricky forecast. NWP experts would say that RAOB sampling isn't that big a deal for the models but anecdotally in the past several years it seems that better sampling really does help. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk To expand on what you guys had said, I don't know if EC has incorporated proper sampling data on the CMC or RGEM that far up north. If not, I'd expect alot of back and forth with the models till atleast tomorrow night. I know EC has limited data coverage away from major cities. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted December 14, 2019 Share Posted December 14, 2019 Unfortunately NWP experts are going to say their models are infallible and most of the times they aren't going to be using them to forecast day to day. We have seen better sampling make a huge difference especially in situations like this where you have so many moving parts. I mean we have monster storm in the northeast, the ridge behind it, how much confluence ends up behind it, 2 systems in Canada and the main system itself which doesn't want to figure out if it's coming out all at once or in pieces. I really feel for you guys in NWS on this one because there are like 5 different outcomes and all could be right. Hell there are even a few GEFS members that bring rain almost to here. The other problem we face is the ubiquity of the model data everywhere and the 'model-casts' the news stations run. So we put something out with a certain message and then for instance the 00z NAM comes out with a more aggressive solution than our forecast/forecast graphic and we get questions. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 14, 2019 Share Posted December 14, 2019 5 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said: The other problem we face is the ubiquity of the model data everywhere and the 'model-casts' the news stations run. So we put something out with a certain message and then for instance the 00z NAM comes out with a more aggressive solution than our forecast/forecast graphic and we get questions. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk Not to mention the weather apps and facebook groups galore. It's an uphill battle for sure. I mean at this point I have literally no confidence in this system and we are closing in on day 3 or less. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted December 14, 2019 Share Posted December 14, 2019 2 minutes ago, Stebo said: Not to mention the weather apps and facebook groups galore. It's an uphill battle for sure. I mean at this point I have literally no confidence in this system and we are closing in on day 3 or less. I don't remember it being this bad a few years ago. Perhaps it might be somehow correlated with the North Pacific Pattern and the big "warm blob". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 14, 2019 Author Share Posted December 14, 2019 2 minutes ago, Snowstorms said: I don't remember it being this bad a few years ago. Perhaps it might be somehow correlated with the North Pacific Pattern and the big "warm blob". It doesn't seem like it sometimes, but the overall model skill/ability has improved compared to what it was several years ago. The improvements are even more significant when compared to 15-20 years ago. Stebo gave a good summary... unfortunately there are situations like this where there is a lot going on and it results in greater volatility in the model output. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted December 14, 2019 Share Posted December 14, 2019 I don't remember it being this bad a few years ago. Perhaps it might be somehow correlated with the North Pacific Pattern and the big "warm blob". There used to be Pacific recon missions for significant systems that may have helped.Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted December 14, 2019 Share Posted December 14, 2019 It doesn't seem like it sometimes, but the overall model skill/ability has improved compared to what it was several years ago. The improvements are even more significant when compared to 15-20 years ago. Stebo gave a good summary... unfortunately there are situations like this where there is a lot going on and it results in greater volatility in the model output. I think because of technological advancement we expect more so we probably remember unusually well modeled systems in the past that were exceptions to the rule and say that it used to be better when in reality NWP is better than ever today.Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted December 14, 2019 Share Posted December 14, 2019 6z NAM joins the other models farther south. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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