Chicago Storm Posted December 13, 2019 Share Posted December 13, 2019 16 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said: euro about ready to seal the deal on the December shutout It's ova, outside of a DAB. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 13, 2019 Share Posted December 13, 2019 1 minute ago, Hoosier said: Not exactly a pillar of consistency in the last few runs. Wonder if we will see a dramatic north distribution with the EPS again. Oh I agree, all the models at this point are completely inconsistent. This is now the 3rd or 4th year in a row where we have had some what consistent models up to day 4-5, then model chaos for 2 days before converging back in the 48-72hr range. There is some issue in all the models collectively and my guess is with systems being in a data hole. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted December 13, 2019 Share Posted December 13, 2019 12z euro 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 13, 2019 Share Posted December 13, 2019 2 minutes ago, Stebo said: Oh I agree, all the models at this point are completely inconsistent. This is now the 3rd or 4th year in a row where we have had some what consistent models up to day 4-5, then model chaos for 2 days before converging back in the 48-72hr range. There is some issue in all the models collectively and my guess is with systems being in a data hole. Agree with this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
King James Posted December 13, 2019 Share Posted December 13, 2019 12z euroGross Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moosey2323 Posted December 13, 2019 Share Posted December 13, 2019 When can we expect this system to be fully-sampled? Isn't some of it still over the Pacific right now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 13, 2019 Share Posted December 13, 2019 Just now, Moosey2323 said: When can we expect this system to be fully-sampled? Isn't some of it still over the Pacific right now? Very little by Saturday evening 0z's...Full by 12z Sunday. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 13, 2019 Share Posted December 13, 2019 3 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: Agree with this. Yeah, this is why I am not sold on anything up or down with this one except to watch the ensembles for trends as they take some of the noise out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted December 13, 2019 Share Posted December 13, 2019 12z GEFS mean 700mb RH looks pretty decent from DTX--->YYZ 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 13, 2019 Share Posted December 13, 2019 Still a good amount of solid hits up to the WI border on the 12z EPS with a nice cluster of members NW of the mean per usual like the last day or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 13, 2019 Author Share Posted December 13, 2019 Just need to surpass 2" here to be the biggest snow this season. Think there's a decent chance. I'd go with a first call of 2-3". Going to be online very little/not at all tomorrow and hopefully will come back to some nice trends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 13, 2019 Share Posted December 13, 2019 18z NAM looks pretty darn good if you take away it's usual low level dry air issues. Have a hard time believing that with weak NW sfc flow much of Sunday and when it turns easterly it's still weak. Not one of those true NE fetches of dry air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted December 13, 2019 Share Posted December 13, 2019 3 minutes ago, Thundersnow12 said: 18z NAM looks pretty darn good if you take away it's usual low level dry air issues. Have a hard time believing that with weak NW sfc flow much of Sunday and when it turns easterly it's still weak. Not one of those true NE fetches of dry air. Yea 18z nam looks good for a good portion of this forum. Nice WAA band. Curious to see if 18z gfs nudges north. 3km nam and 12km nam both looked nice 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 13, 2019 Share Posted December 13, 2019 its the nam passed 48 hrs, of course it's north and wet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 13, 2019 Author Share Posted December 13, 2019 NAM has been having some weird micro dry holes. Case in point, that spot in southern Iowa. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chuckster2012 Posted December 13, 2019 Share Posted December 13, 2019 2 hours ago, King James said: Gross Looks good to me, but I'm skeptical... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted December 13, 2019 Share Posted December 13, 2019 9 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said: its the nam passed 48 hrs, of course it's north and wet Was a thing...a few years ago Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moosey2323 Posted December 13, 2019 Share Posted December 13, 2019 DTX AFD Quote Forecast complexity increases considerably for early next week and confidence drops off accordingly. NWP have characteristically bounced around the location of the polar low over northern Canada, its location sensitive to the behavior of and interaction with the adjacent closed high over northern Alaska. Further complicating matters will be the cyclonic wave break resulting from the developing New England cyclone which will force additional ridging into the high latitudes and introduce further uncertainty to the large scale pattern over Canada. Since both the CMC and NCEP ensembles are demonstrating sensitivity to the relatively low amplitude development sequence as it occurs at the interface of the incoming Pacific energy and the confluent wave guide anchored over Canada both will be sensitive to this process as it unfolds. The ECMWF likewise demonstrates some uncharacteristic waffling during this period as its solution space remains sensitive to the same factors. The 12z ECMWF provides a good illustration as 400mb PV analysis reveals that subtle changes in the flow result in greater wave separation (centered over the Dakotas) occuring Monday. The more progressive northern stream then suppresses the front to the south resulting in a muted frontal snow late Monday night or Tuesday morning. Surprisingly, the UKMET resides on the opposite end of the spectrum allowing snow to develop as early as Sunday night as the front lifts toward Michigan. An outcome ranging anywhere from 1 to 5 inches, highest near the Ohio border, is plausible attm. Amounts will be highly conditional on onset time which remains the greatest source of uncertainty at this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 13, 2019 Share Posted December 13, 2019 11 minutes ago, Moosey2323 said: DTX AFD They could have summed that whole paragraph up with I don't know, instead of the massive word salad here. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 13, 2019 Share Posted December 13, 2019 18z op GFS is drier than popcorn fart, but it doesn't compare to the GEFS which is on a whole much better with more moisture except for one ensemble. Although as someone noted the other day it isn't comparing apples to apples because the physical scheme of the GEFS hasn't been updated like the operational. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 13, 2019 Share Posted December 13, 2019 31 minutes ago, Stebo said: 18z op GFS is drier than popcorn fart, but it doesn't compare to the GEFS which is on a whole much better with more moisture except for one ensemble. Although as someone noted the other day it isn't comparing apples to apples because the physical scheme of the GEFS hasn't been updated like the operational. Which is why you gotta favor the GEFS over the horrible Fv3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 13, 2019 Share Posted December 13, 2019 6 minutes ago, Thundersnow12 said: Which is why you gotta favor the GEFS over the horrible Fv3 Agreed, as it stands I don't expect a massive storm, but something respectable to low end warning in some places especially back in MO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 14, 2019 Share Posted December 14, 2019 18z Euro wetter and pretty nice jump north. 3” in western chi burbs. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted December 14, 2019 Share Posted December 14, 2019 1 minute ago, Thundersnow12 said: 18z Euro wetter and pretty nice jump north. 3” in western chi burbs. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 14, 2019 Author Share Posted December 14, 2019 28 minutes ago, Thundersnow12 said: 18z Euro wetter and pretty nice jump north. 3” in western chi burbs. Ensemble/blended approach is definitely the way to go for now and was the basis of my first call, when what I would call the "range of plausibility" around here is very little to upwards of 6". You know it is a tricky setup when it's got the Euro bouncing around, though admittedly I haven't paid enough attention to off hour Euro runs since they began to know if this is a particularly unusual amount of waffling. After all, running a model 4 times instead of twice per day is going to provide more opportunities for flip flopping. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted December 14, 2019 Share Posted December 14, 2019 Freezing rain now showing up in my NWS IND forecast for Sunday night and Monday. Ick! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chuckster2012 Posted December 14, 2019 Share Posted December 14, 2019 9 minutes ago, Indystorm said: Freezing rain now showing up in my NWS IND forecast for Sunday night and Monday. Ick! Randy Ollis disagrees! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted December 14, 2019 Share Posted December 14, 2019 1 minute ago, chuckster2012 said: Randy Ollis disagrees! I think there will be a lot of disagreement among mets until this system gets fully sampled and we are closer to the event. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted December 14, 2019 Share Posted December 14, 2019 I like where i sit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 14, 2019 Share Posted December 14, 2019 NAM. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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