Stebo Posted December 13, 2019 Share Posted December 13, 2019 That piece going through Canada is faster and flatter this run so makes sense for the change. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 13, 2019 Share Posted December 13, 2019 EPS is definitely north than 18z/12z runs also stronger, mean of 1002mb at 96hr. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 13, 2019 Share Posted December 13, 2019 DTX Next round of Pacific upper level energy/trough swinging through the Four Corners region on Sunday will spin up another low pressure system coming out of the southern Plains. This low looks to be tracking close to the Ohio River on Monday, presenting an opportunity for accumulating snow to impact southeast Michigan. Magnitude of the surface wave remains in question, as 00z Euro is a bit stronger and farther north compared GFS, but especially vs the flatter Canadian/Icon solutions. None-the-less, GFS ensemble members give the Euro plenty of support, and several members are even farther north and deeper. Euro indicating 3-4 g/kg of specific humidity in the 850-700 MB layer crossing the border which could support several inches with the proper mid level FGEN, even with less than ideal thermal profiles. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted December 13, 2019 Share Posted December 13, 2019 LOT being aggressive calling for several inches of accumulation (possible) in grids monday which is 72 hours out. Could just very easily go with a blended pops chance of snow this far out, and see how the model madness plays out. Rereading I guess it doesn't hurt to add in potential accumulation possibilities... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 13, 2019 Share Posted December 13, 2019 DAB northwest to 3-4 far southeast is a fine call will go with 1.5" IMBY final call Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted December 13, 2019 Share Posted December 13, 2019 ^ or DAB Cary, Ill to 4" Griffith, Ind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 13, 2019 Share Posted December 13, 2019 41 minutes ago, Baum said: ^ or DAB Cary, Ill to 4" Griffith, Ind. i was mostly trolling Joe but i guess Cary#s works too 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 13, 2019 Share Posted December 13, 2019 i was mostly trolling Joe but i guess Cary#s works tooDAB is actually my thought right now.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 13, 2019 Share Posted December 13, 2019 6z Euro is back south and weaker.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 13, 2019 Share Posted December 13, 2019 4 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: DAB is actually my thought right now. . agree, didn't say it's wasn't a good call Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary67 Posted December 13, 2019 Share Posted December 13, 2019 29 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said: i was mostly trolling Joe but i guess Cary#s works too Can't argue that. Another December to remember Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 13, 2019 Share Posted December 13, 2019 plume mean up close to 3 at ORD but they're notoriously amped/north at this range Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted December 13, 2019 Share Posted December 13, 2019 Warm and north seems the way to go at this early time of season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 13, 2019 Share Posted December 13, 2019 lol 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AWMT30 Posted December 13, 2019 Share Posted December 13, 2019 Let's give it up for the ICON LOL 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted December 13, 2019 Share Posted December 13, 2019 8 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said: lol Deserves a medal for being so consistent and accurate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted December 13, 2019 Share Posted December 13, 2019 Gfs more north compared to last night's run but definitely further south than it's been the last several days. Nam a bit further north than gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moosey2323 Posted December 13, 2019 Share Posted December 13, 2019 At this rate it will likely just be an advisory-level storm for Southeast Michigan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted December 13, 2019 Share Posted December 13, 2019 Looks like a solid shot from Springfield Illinois to Cleveland of 3-6" with some freezing rain for areas to the south of that. Not the biggest storm but definitely a disruptive weekday storm 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winter Man Posted December 13, 2019 Share Posted December 13, 2019 25 minutes ago, nwohweather said: Looks like a solid shot from Springfield Illinois to Cleveland of 3-6" with some freezing rain for areas to the south of that. Not the biggest storm but definitely a disruptive weekday storm Pretty darn good for this latitude. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted December 13, 2019 Share Posted December 13, 2019 2 minutes ago, ChiTownStorm11 said: Pretty darn good for this latitude. Well if you abide by the cyclical nature of things this is ideal. Warmer/dryer December with a shot or two of snow, leading to a cold and snowy January where it'll really pay off. I have seen too often where a cold snowy Nov-Dec turn into a blah January thru March snow wise 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted December 13, 2019 Share Posted December 13, 2019 12z UK ... It has light accumulation up to the I-80 corridor, but it's not a vigorous system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 13, 2019 Share Posted December 13, 2019 2 hours ago, A-L-E-K said: lol This needs to be cued up with the Super Mario mushroom sound. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 13, 2019 Share Posted December 13, 2019 euro about ready to seal the deal on the December shutout 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 13, 2019 Share Posted December 13, 2019 Euro is still way too light on the cold side of the system, also this run is stronger than the 06z run though not as good as the 00z run. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bhamwx205 Posted December 13, 2019 Share Posted December 13, 2019 Euro is still way too light on the cold side of the system, also this run is stronger than the 06z run though not as good as the 00z run.Why do you say its way too light ? . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted December 13, 2019 Share Posted December 13, 2019 1 minute ago, bhamwx205 said: Why do you say its way too light ? . He's saying it is underdoing the cold sector precip. Based on how it evolved it should be throwing more qpf into the cold side 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 13, 2019 Author Share Posted December 13, 2019 6 minutes ago, Stebo said: Euro is still way too light on the cold side of the system, also this run is stronger than the 06z run though not as good as the 00z run. Not exactly a pillar of consistency in the last few runs. Wonder if we will see a dramatic north distribution with the EPS again. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 13, 2019 Share Posted December 13, 2019 7 minutes ago, Stebo said: Euro is still way too light on the cold side of the system, also this run is stronger than the 06z run though not as good as the 00z run. Other guidance is fairly similar. Without a more amped wave, or one that tries to close off, this is what we're going to have. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 13, 2019 Share Posted December 13, 2019 Just now, bhamwx205 said: Why do you say its way too light ? . Strong moisture advection, along with strong positive vorticity advection as well. Problem is the Euro is leaving too dry of an atmosphere behind the front on Saturday. I don't buy dew points in the single digits or lower in its wake. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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