Hoosier Posted December 12, 2019 Share Posted December 12, 2019 We'll see what happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted December 12, 2019 Share Posted December 12, 2019 Just now, Hoosier said: We'll see what happens. Sad that we have such confidence in threats/threads any more. What happened?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted December 12, 2019 Share Posted December 12, 2019 I'm holding it against you if the 00z GFS isn't correct verbatim. Either way, I am concerned the low develops too quickly and ends up getting suppressed in the southern high plains before it can really eject. ie the favorite solution that the Euro/UKie have been showing for a few days now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted December 12, 2019 Share Posted December 12, 2019 00Z Ukie looks pretty sweet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malacka11 Posted December 12, 2019 Share Posted December 12, 2019 1 minute ago, Snowstorms said: 00Z Ukie looks pretty sweet. Please elaborate before I have a stroke... Sweet for who? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted December 12, 2019 Share Posted December 12, 2019 5 minutes ago, Malacka11 said: Please elaborate before I have a stroke... Sweet for who? I'm sorry I actually just based it on what I saw here; http://meteocentre.com/numerical-weather-prediction/forecast-systems.php?lang=en&map=na&run=00&mod=ukmet&stn2_type=prog&date_type=dateo&mode=latest&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest I don't have access to the premium models. Perhaps somebody else does ? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted December 12, 2019 Share Posted December 12, 2019 Yes, the UK is a big improvement tonight, although still south of Iowa. The energy is much sharper as it ejects into the central US. It hits Kansas and Missouri solidly, then heads ene toward Toledo while weakening some. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 12, 2019 Share Posted December 12, 2019 Euro out to 99 hours it should come north some this run the low over the Labrador is weaker this run leading to less confluence in the east along with a weaker high coming down its backside. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chuckster2012 Posted December 12, 2019 Share Posted December 12, 2019 As usual, I'm in the warm sector again... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted December 12, 2019 Share Posted December 12, 2019 20 minutes ago, Stebo said: Euro out to 99 hours it should come north some this run the low over the Labrador is weaker this run leading to less confluence in the east along with a weaker high coming down its backside. Improvement, but not quite enough Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 12, 2019 Share Posted December 12, 2019 9 minutes ago, chuckster2012 said: As usual, I'm in the warm sector again... I mean it isnt even Christmas yet and you are Southern Indiana. Evansville only averages 12.1" and Cincinnati is around 16" I believe. Climo is pretty against you getting snow of significance in general let alone this year. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 12, 2019 Share Posted December 12, 2019 2 minutes ago, mimillman said: Improvement, but not quite enough Yeah it's a step. Compared to other models it is on the weakest/furthest south envelope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted December 12, 2019 Share Posted December 12, 2019 5 minutes ago, Stebo said: Yeah it's a step. Compared to other models it is on the weakest/furthest south envelope. I’d argue it’s similar to the Canadian with the secondary development off the coast. I wouldn’t bet against those two unless the trend continues with the 12z suite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chuckster2012 Posted December 12, 2019 Share Posted December 12, 2019 1 hour ago, Stebo said: I mean it isnt even Christmas yet and you are Southern Indiana. Evansville only averages 12.1" and Cincinnati is around 16" I believe. Climo is pretty against you getting snow of significance in general let alone this year. Yeah, I know. I guess the 3-4" we got in the November storm got my hopes up.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 12, 2019 Share Posted December 12, 2019 GRR The Monday system... The GFS has been forecasting this for nearly a week now and the ECMWF has since the 10th /00z run been bringing the storm closer to us on the operational runs. The 12/00z run brings snow to GRR from the ECMWF. Since this is polar closed upper low dropping south into and southern stream system, this could be power house storm. We will have to watch this closely. DTX Yet another system will then track near the southern Great Lakes from the four corners Monday and Monday night. GFS and ECMWF remain far apart with their solutions but the main story will be that a strong low may track through the Ohio Valley region which would put southern MI in the colder, deformation region of the low. Depending on how far north or south it tracks will determine how far north precipitation can reach and what ptype will occur. The piece of the jet that will be responsible for this storm isn`t set to reach the NW conus til Saturday night so may be some time before models really start converging on a track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 12, 2019 Share Posted December 12, 2019 Gfs gonna embarrass itself like usual 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted December 12, 2019 Share Posted December 12, 2019 ^ most likely. Though from some of the info I'm hearing this A.M. there was a fairly decent shift in a number of the euro ensembles in the direction of the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary67 Posted December 12, 2019 Share Posted December 12, 2019 2 hours ago, Baum said: ^ most likely. Though from some of the info I'm hearing this A.M. there was a fairly decent shift in a number of the euro ensembles in the direction of the GFS. Most of the modeling Im seeing shows the OP GFS the northern outlier and even its 6Z run ticked south. GEFS members mostly further south of OP along with CMC, EPS. Ukie came north to join CMC and Euro Paints an I70 storm more than I80 especially up by Chicago and points north.Also if the EPS is to be believed holiday week looks Chistorm mild Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted December 12, 2019 Share Posted December 12, 2019 Yikes at the overrunning going on with this thing. Nice little cutter dropping good snow from Chicago-Detroit while Indiana and Ohio get slammed with ice. Also some solid cold behind it could really get the lake effect machine going on the backside, could see places in West Michigan get buried next week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AWMT30 Posted December 12, 2019 Share Posted December 12, 2019 I would gladly take the UKMET track and run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AWMT30 Posted December 12, 2019 Share Posted December 12, 2019 Even though it is trash the ICON jumped north to more of a EURO track Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted December 12, 2019 Share Posted December 12, 2019 1 hour ago, Cary67 said: Most of the modeling Im seeing shows the OP GFS the northern outlier and even its 6Z run ticked south. GEFS members mostly further south of OP along with CMC, EPS. Ukie came north to join CMC and Euro Paints an I70 storm more than I80 especially up by Chicago and points north.Also if the EPS is to be believed holiday week looks Chistorm mild I'm looking more for trends of a decent storm somewhere in the forum. Doesn't necessarily have to be northern Illinois. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 12, 2019 Share Posted December 12, 2019 12z GEM also came north, probably half between the GFS and Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 12, 2019 Author Share Posted December 12, 2019 If model convergence as you get closer means anything, then maybe we'll see a northward bump on the 12z Euro. Sometimes it's not that easy though. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 12, 2019 Share Posted December 12, 2019 Just now, Hoosier said: If model convergence as you get closer means anything, then maybe we'll see a northward bump on the 12z Euro. Sometimes it's not that easy though. Euro is gonna at least bump north, more ridging out ahead of the wave at 72hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 12, 2019 Share Posted December 12, 2019 lol^ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 12, 2019 Share Posted December 12, 2019 11 minutes ago, Thundersnow12 said: Euro is gonna at least bump north, more ridging out ahead of the wave at 72hrs. South and weaker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 12, 2019 Share Posted December 12, 2019 North bump cancel. Indian summer back on 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 12, 2019 Share Posted December 12, 2019 1 minute ago, Thundersnow12 said: North bump cancel. Indian summer back on You ask, you shall receive... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 12, 2019 Share Posted December 12, 2019 Part of the reason why it is weaker is that it is leaving vorticity back in the southwest. No model is doing that and it is a known Euro bias. With a weaker ejection and trailing the vorticity in the southwest, the vort max is easier to shear out instead of coming out as a shortwave. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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