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Wednesday 12/11 SNE Snow Threat


The 4 Seasons
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13 minutes ago, dendrite said:

GFS is still trying to snow through the H7-H8 dry layer. I'd toss the lighter snows it tries to bring into WNE. There's decent lift at H6 that's crosshaired through the DGZ further east though.

Besides the dry punch at 850, what stands out? Looks marginal to me but still learning.

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4 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said:

Canadians gone wild huh. Epic fronto band on hi-res RGEM. A few frames are weenie porn.

 

@dryslot and I like to reference how many feet of Canadian modeled snow we have shoveled over the years.   Permanent back injuries from it all really... or maybe those injuries were from all the kegs we've moved?

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31 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Besides the dry punch at 850, what stands out? Looks marginal to me but still learning.

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The problem is you’re advecting in drier and drier air into that layer so even with wetbulbing there’s a battle with the supply of low RH. Eventually it wins out and you’ll probably end as virga. Your gridpoint is close there. Those lighter blues I’d probably toss. Still you have like -6C over -28C in that H8 zone. That’s not ideal. The mesos have been more moist though. I”d call that sounding snow, but with eaten up flakes. 

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9 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I definitely don’t like seeing the two weenie models, RPM and NAM, so meager and East. 

I don't like seeing weenie models like the RPM/NAM so bullish and the most reliable model, ECMWF so meager and dry ala March 21st 2018. 

Doesn't really mean much to me...though still not super confident either.

Advisories up for CT for 2-4

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