moneypitmike Posted December 9, 2019 Share Posted December 9, 2019 ZFP, fwiw. Tuesday Night Rain likely with a chance of sleet in the evening, then snow likely with a chance of sleet after midnight. Snow and sleet accumulation around an inch possible. Much cooler with lows in the upper 20s. Northwest winds 5 to 10 mph. Chance of precipitation 70 percent. Wednesday Snow likely. Additional light snow accumulation possible. Much cooler. Near steady temperature around 30. West winds around 5 mph. Chance of snow 60 percent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted December 9, 2019 Author Share Posted December 9, 2019 2 minutes ago, moneypitmike said: ZFP, fwiw. Tuesday Night Rain likely with a chance of sleet in the evening, then snow likely with a chance of sleet after midnight. Snow and sleet accumulation around an inch possible. Much cooler with lows in the upper 20s. Northwest winds 5 to 10 mph. Chance of precipitation 70 percent. Wednesday Snow likely. Additional light snow accumulation possible. Much cooler. Near steady temperature around 30. West winds around 5 mph. Chance of snow 60 percent. Light snow accumulation means sub advisory for that forecast period i.e. around 1", 1-2, 1-3, 2-3 Moderate means advisory for that period Heavy means warning for that period Adding an inch to say 1-3 yields about 2-4ish. That's generally how that works in my experience. @OceanStWx can correct me if im wrong. Light, moderate, heavy are the three categories and its usually stated outside of a time when exact numbers come into play. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted December 9, 2019 Author Share Posted December 9, 2019 18Z GEM/RGEM/HRGEM all in agreement with about 4-7 statewide. Here is the 18Z GEM 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted December 9, 2019 Share Posted December 9, 2019 Canadian contingent gone wild! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted December 9, 2019 Share Posted December 9, 2019 1 hour ago, The 4 Seasons said: BOX cut totals a bit, now more realistic with widespread 3-4 rather than 4-6. ALY pretty much cancelled the storm, they really slashed totals less than 1/4 of what it was. I wouldn't be surprise to see Box do further cuts. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 9, 2019 Share Posted December 9, 2019 That forecast more reasonable Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 9, 2019 Share Posted December 9, 2019 8 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: That forecast more reasonable Is Wiz no accumulation reasonable? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted December 10, 2019 Author Share Posted December 10, 2019 EC slightly improved from 12Z not too much change but it went in the right direction. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 10, 2019 Share Posted December 10, 2019 2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Is Wiz no accumulation reasonable? 18z euro looks a little better. Wiz may need to take it up? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 10, 2019 Share Posted December 10, 2019 16 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: 18z euro looks a little better. Wiz may need to take it up? Why do you think he should take it up? Trying to help him learn . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted December 10, 2019 Author Share Posted December 10, 2019 Quickly, after reviewing the 12Z/18Z runs and checking out bufkit/soundings this is what i think is most likely at the moment. There are some positives such as good growth in the DGZ, model continuity amongst GFS/EC/GEM but also some red flags such as the dry air depicted in the GFS soundings and some mesos cutting way back and shifting SE. First call map, we are still about 36 hours away from the meat of it, final call issued tomorrow afternoon/evening before any snow begins. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted December 10, 2019 Share Posted December 10, 2019 4 hours ago, weatherwiz said: Just for fun uppity up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted December 10, 2019 Author Share Posted December 10, 2019 3 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: Nice map. I think that’s a good first call. plenty of model cycles to go... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 10, 2019 Share Posted December 10, 2019 Been 1-3" with spot 4" since the get-go...no change. Fraud refers to the tendency to underperform expectations....doesn't mean P sunny skies. Pretty simple. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted December 10, 2019 Author Share Posted December 10, 2019 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: Been 1-3" with spot 4" since the get-go...no change. Fraud refers to the tendency to underperform what are often ambitious expectations....doesn't mean P sunny skies. Pretty simple. What is considered the fraud 5? 1. Inverted trough 2. Anafrontal snows 3. Wrap-around snows 4. Snow Squalls 5. Clipper redevlopment ??? I'm just guessing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
It's Always Sunny Posted December 10, 2019 Share Posted December 10, 2019 8 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Been 1-3" with spot 4" since the get-go...no change. Fraud refers to the tendency to underperform expectations....doesn't mean P sunny skies. Pretty simple. I agree with the 1-3". I remain overly concerned that 850mb dry air pocket is going to eat up some of that QPF. If that solution verifies, great, people get 1". If it saturates more than modeled then people end up with 3". It's a win-win lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 10, 2019 Share Posted December 10, 2019 15 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said: What is considered the fraud 5? 1. Inverted trough 2. Anafrontal snows 3. Wrap-around snows 4. Snow Squalls 5. Clipper redevlopment ??? I'm just guessing Tornado outbreaks. Severe droughts are a close runner-up. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 10, 2019 Share Posted December 10, 2019 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 10, 2019 Share Posted December 10, 2019 18 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said: What is considered the fraud 5? 1. Inverted trough 2. Anafrontal snows 3. Wrap-around snows 4. Snow Squalls 5. Clipper redevlopment ??? I'm just guessing I think the clipper redevelopment is a real deal..happens more than the others in that list, and can become some big storms for SNE at times. Blizzard of 78 was a clipper redevelopment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted December 10, 2019 Author Share Posted December 10, 2019 That's pretty much where am i right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted December 10, 2019 Author Share Posted December 10, 2019 Just now, WinterWolf said: I think the clipper redevelopment is a real deal..happens more than the others in that list, and can be one big storms for SNE at times. Blizzard of 78 was a clipper redevelopment. I was more thinking along the lines where a fast moving clipper moves just south of LI and enhances 1-3" amounts into 3-6" snows. When you have a good upper air pattern and it's forecast to be an explosive bomb off the delmarva, that's different. Blizzard of 2005 started its life as a clipper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 10, 2019 Share Posted December 10, 2019 3 to 6 still, no expectations higher so no fraud. You can look up posts to see how goalposts changed in definition but meh that is standard here. Still time to adjust. Final look probably tomorrow 18z. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 10, 2019 Share Posted December 10, 2019 23 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said: What is considered the fraud 5? 1. Inverted trough 2. Anafrontal snows 3. Wrap-around snows 4. Snow Squalls 5. Clipper redevlopment ??? I'm just guessing Severe wx, Windex, Backlash, Inverted Trough, Anafront 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 10, 2019 Share Posted December 10, 2019 1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said: 3 to 6 still, no expectations higher so no fraud. You can look up posts to see how goalposts changed in definition but meh that is standard here. Still time to adjust. Final look probably tomorrow 18z. When 3-6 doesn't verify, it's a fraud. Wait for it.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 10, 2019 Share Posted December 10, 2019 2 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said: I was more thinking along the lines where a fast moving clipper moves just south of LI and enhances 1-3" amounts into 3-6" snows. When you have a good upper air pattern and it's forecast to be an explosive bomb off the delmarva, that's different. Blizzard of 2005 started its life as a clipper. Yes exactly. And so was 78...the grandaddy of clipper redevelopers for SNE. I didn’t realize you were meaning the innocuous lil buggers south of LI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 10, 2019 Share Posted December 10, 2019 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Severe wx, Windex, Backlash, Inverted Trough, Anafront Tropical systems warrant an honorable mention... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 10, 2019 Share Posted December 10, 2019 Nice wave on the front. Looks like a nice enhancement , semi baroclinic leaf. Temps drop pretty quickly. Wed morning commute in the heavily traveled 95 Northeast might have issues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted December 10, 2019 Author Share Posted December 10, 2019 2 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: Yes exactly. And so was 78...the grandaddy of clipper redevelopers for SNE. I didn’t realize you were meaning the innocuous lil buggers south of LI. I was just taking a guess. hey i got 4/5 right! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 10, 2019 Share Posted December 10, 2019 1 minute ago, The 4 Seasons said: I was just taking a guess. hey i got 4/5 right! Lol yes you did! 4 out of 5 ain’t bad pal. Good guess. Go buy a lotto ticket. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted December 10, 2019 Author Share Posted December 10, 2019 Just now, WinterWolf said: Lol yes you did! 4 out of 5 ain’t bad pal. Good guess. Go buy a lotto ticket. I'm already at Foxwoods. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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