Wednesday 12/11 SNE Snow Threat

[dendrite]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2016/01/15/why-does-the-sun-still-rise-so-late-the-dark-mornings-of-january-explained/

[CapturedNature]

14 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

You don’t have the NE CT hills circled . You have far NE Windham Cty. The NE CT hills are primarily in Tolland County over to Union in extreme NW Windham County .. all out of the circled area . I’ve seen many mets and others make this error over the years 

 

14 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

It includes Union, which is in the hills.

I know where Tolland is on the map..

Is this the circled map you guys are talking about?  I've circled Tolland Cty in blue because it does appear to be outside of the circle.  FWIW, Staffordville on the NWS map is in the northern part of the county.

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 hours ago, MetHerb said:

 

Is this the circled map you guys are talking about?  I've circled Tolland Cty in blue because it does appear to be outside of the circle.  FWIW, Staffordville on the NWS map is in the northern part of the county.

 

I understand Tolland is outside of it, I nevee contested that. I said Union is on the edge of it.

[The 4 Seasons]

3 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I understand Tolland is outside of it, I nevee contested that. I said Union is on the edge of it.

I give you credit for sniffing out the area of snowfall max, though it could have been pushed a little west it was still good.

I probably would have called for a more uniform snowfall for most of MA with the except of barnstable, dukes and nantucket counties and the extreme s coast.

[The 4 Seasons]

Updated my map to include new reports and some reports from here on AMWX.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, The 4 Seasons said:

I give you credit for sniffing out the area of snowfall max, though it could have been pushed a little west it was still good.

I probably would have called for a more uniform snowfall for most of MA with the except of barnstable, dukes and nantucket counties and the extreme s coast.

Well, it wasn't a good call...I gave it a D-.

[It's Always Sunny]

On 12/11/2019 at 10:27 AM, dendrite said:

I think the GFS was just overzealous with the dry air. The precip was heavy enough too to keep any slightly drying layer saturated with sublimational wetbulbing. That 3km NAM I just posted was a lot more moist at H8 over C CT than the GFS was.

I think everyone's breakdown of this storm was great (what happened, why it happened, what could've been different if xyz happened, etc.).  One thing I want to add is I think there was some true seeder-feeder action as well where the upper level clouds (where the impressive SG was) fed the lower level clouds despite that dry air in place.  I really think it expedited the saturation (wet-bulbing) of that dry pocket.  If SG wasn't as great, this may have taken longer to achieve obviously resulting in lower snow totals.  Either way, it proved to be a challenging forecast when analyzing the impact this dry pocket of air would have.  I think this storm had incredible dynamics where many were able to apply true meteorology reasoning to it whether your forecast verified or not. Great job, everyone, except the Yankees