The 4 Seasons Posted December 9, 2019 Author Share Posted December 9, 2019 Not that i give it much weight but NAM is ugly. Literally yesterday it had warning snows now it's like what snow? Unreal, that model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 9, 2019 Share Posted December 9, 2019 That jet streak though is pretty damn impressive..180+ knots. Imagine those dynamics involved in a different type of set-up lol. Don't really see a jet streak that intense just to our west too often...usually moreso just to our north and east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 9, 2019 Share Posted December 9, 2019 Moving towards euro. Shocking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted December 9, 2019 Author Share Posted December 9, 2019 Well overall i guess its better than the 12Z run but not good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 9, 2019 Share Posted December 9, 2019 You can see this is just really going to come down to one narrow zone of fronto...where that happens (may very well be over the fish) is where 2-4'' of snow may fall. Outside of this zone of fronto it's just some snow showers making things slick for the AM commute 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 9, 2019 Share Posted December 9, 2019 Just need to watch where that narrow zone is. Still in reach for central and eastern areas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted December 9, 2019 Author Share Posted December 9, 2019 aaaand NWS OKX bumps up ??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 9, 2019 Share Posted December 9, 2019 3K is way East. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted December 9, 2019 Share Posted December 9, 2019 Just now, CoastalWx said: 3K is way East. I’ll enjoy the flurries. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted December 9, 2019 Share Posted December 9, 2019 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: 3K is way East. She gone. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 9, 2019 Share Posted December 9, 2019 21 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said: aaaand NWS OKX bumps up ??? Good call for 1-3 for NYC. I doubt they are making a forecasted based off the Nam. Watch it come back tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CapturedNature Posted December 9, 2019 Share Posted December 9, 2019 31 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: That jet streak though is pretty damn impressive..180+ knots. Imagine those dynamics involved in a different type of set-up lol. Don't really see a jet streak that intense just to our west too often...usually moreso just to our north and east. That looks like the old color bars that would show up on TV stations back in the day... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted December 9, 2019 Author Share Posted December 9, 2019 1 minute ago, Snow88 said: Good call for 1-3 for NYC. I doubt they are making a forecasted based off the Nam. Watch it come back tonight. Never said or impied they were. The last forecast was 7:15AM so they didn't get a chance to see any of the 12Z runs yet. The PM shift, this map, would be based off the entire 12Z suite probably not taking into account the 18Z NAM at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 9, 2019 Share Posted December 9, 2019 1 hour ago, The 4 Seasons said: Those are the best ones. ? They have 2-3 and 3-4 ranges though. If they wanted to do 2-4 for SNE they could do a wide area of 2-3 and 3-4. What Scott's saying is that 4-6 aint happening on that wide of scale like they are painting it to be. Agreed. I thought maybe they were limited in ranges somehow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 9, 2019 Share Posted December 9, 2019 Is still wait through 00z tonight. We’ve seen stranger things with these. But I think Rays map overall has had the idea. Maybe a 4 bagger somewhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 9, 2019 Share Posted December 9, 2019 36 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Moving towards euro. Shocking. You mean no widespread 3-6" from the pseudoanfrontal? Stunned- 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 9, 2019 Share Posted December 9, 2019 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: You mean no widespread 3-6" from the pseudoanfrontal? Stunned- Fraud 5 rule in effect Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 9, 2019 Share Posted December 9, 2019 44 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said: Not that i give it much weight but NAM is ugly. Literally yesterday it had warning snows now it's like what snow? Unreal, that model. It's getting closer to what will happen in any case. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted December 9, 2019 Author Share Posted December 9, 2019 I'll await the entire 18Z suite and make a first call map. We still have the 00Z runs overnight 6Z, 12Z tomorrow 18Z tomorrow and 00Z tomorrow night before anything starts anywhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 9, 2019 Share Posted December 9, 2019 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Is still wait through 00z tonight. We’ve seen stranger things with these. But I think Rays map overall has had the idea. Maybe a 4 bagger somewhere. Yea, won't be suprised if NAM overtrended here..it blows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted December 9, 2019 Author Share Posted December 9, 2019 This isn't looking good but i still think a low end advisory snowfall is still in the cards for some. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Go Kart Mozart Posted December 9, 2019 Share Posted December 9, 2019 James likes the NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted December 9, 2019 Author Share Posted December 9, 2019 RGEM still looks like a good hit, this is all i have to go off so far thats updated. Looks like it'll be a little toned down from 12Z but still probably .3-.5 qpf for most i would guess. Here's the link. https://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted December 9, 2019 Share Posted December 9, 2019 1-3" with up to 4-5" sounds about right for the argufrontal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted December 9, 2019 Author Share Posted December 9, 2019 BOX PM UPDATE: Both ensemble data sets from the EC and GFS including deterministic guidance from the NAM/HREF/GFS/EC suggest heaviest qpf will be confined to the south coast of MA/RI/CT. Ensembles offering 0.25 to 0.33 in this area and obviously deterministic guidance higher with 12z NAM showing a stripe of 0.75+ inches from Cape Cod to MVY. 12z HREF ends 12z Wed but also has some members supporting higher qpf 06z-12z Wed. In fact the 12z ECENS has over 30 of its 50 members supporting at least 2 inches of snow for much CT/RI and MA! At this model time range (42+ hrs) typical model error for a frontal boundary is probably in the +/- 50-100 miles range. Thus this heavier qpf band could shift and verify offshore but also could shift inland to perhaps HFD-ORH-BOS. So there remains a range of possibilities. Tracing back the short wave that will enter the Great Lakes early Wed that will back the mid level flow across southern New England and impact our forecast, this feature traces back to the Arctic circle this afternoon. Obviously this is a data sparse area so expecting models to initialize this feature differently/better once it reaches lower latitudes with more data. Typically these arctic short waves verify stronger/more robust given poor model initialization at higher latitudes in data sparse regions. In addition this approaching arctic short wave will be accompanied by an anomalous upper level jet streak across northern New England into southern Quebec Tue ngt/Wed with speeds of 180+ kts! Thus a lot of jet dynamics to watch unfold. So at this early stage our preliminary snowfall forecast could range as little as a coating to an inch (our 10% percentile snow forecast) to possibly 2-4 inches (50% percentile snow forecast) if arctic short wave verifies stronger with mid level flow backing more to the SSW and with longer duration yielding higher qpf. Also can`t completely dismiss the more extreme NAM/HREF solution with 4+ inches, albeit a low prob but within the envelope of solutions. Nevertheless will need to watch this portion of the forecast given its potential impact to the Wed morning commute. @weatherwiz ha! Not sure why they are talking about NAM as the extreme solution when it appears to be on the lighter side of the envelope atm, at least comparing it to GEM/RGEM/UKMET. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 9, 2019 Share Posted December 9, 2019 21 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Is still wait through 00z tonight. We’ve seen stranger things with these. But I think Rays map overall has had the idea. Maybe a 4 bagger somewhere. He’s going to be too low .. 3-6 is perfect for this as Will alluded to. Everything jacked up today. If you’re basing it off a model that is being discontinued like the NAM then we salute you 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 9, 2019 Share Posted December 9, 2019 8 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: He’s going to be too low .. 3-6 is perfect for this as Will alluded to. Everything jacked up today. If you’re basing it off a model that is being discontinued like the NAM then we salute you I think you’re putting words in his mouth Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted December 9, 2019 Author Share Posted December 9, 2019 Where is he, still at work? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 9, 2019 Share Posted December 9, 2019 11 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I think you’re putting words in his mouth He knows that. If I were hugging the NAM, then I would have been forecasting several inches in the first call. The 18z NAM is a mere illustration of the instability and unreliability of that particular piece of guidance. I think that is the point. I already agreed that the 18z maybe overtrended...still think general 1-3". 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted December 9, 2019 Share Posted December 9, 2019 Reggie looks good- still going at 18z Wed. Moving towards GEM...shocking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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