Wednesday 12/11 SNE Snow Threat

[eduggs]

4 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

I see your point Duggs, and I can identify with it. But Perhaps it was just a tad harsh though. Sometimes the presentation is just as important as the message.  

Wiz made great points on why he thought the dry air would win out. But perhaps He let the dry air idea consume his forecast Too much?  And I’m no MET at all, and don’t claim to be. Nor do I have the understanding that Wiz or any Red Tag has.

But meteorology seems to be a very delicate balance many times.  As soon as you get consumed with looking at one thing/aspect, that’s the downfall it seems.  Something can always offset something else, and it’s different in every case.  The dry air was there..but it didn’t do what some thought it would; or at least not to the degree that it was thought it could.  
 

Credit to Kevin and Ginxy...they had the right idea on this one. 

I agree with almost all this post.  And it was a little harsh, I guess to make up for the gentler critiques that have been lacking.  

The models saw the dry air too.  They just model its effects a lot better than we do.  I can remember just as many virga events from the 1990s at Tip can.  But that doesn't mean I'm going to ignore 4 days of consistent modeling.

[weatherwiz]

1 minute ago, WinterWolf said:

I see your point Duggs, and I can identify with it. But Perhaps it was just a tad harsh though. Sometimes the presentation is just as important as the message.  

Wiz made great points on why he thought the dry air would win out. But perhaps He let the dry air idea consume his forecast Too much?  And I’m no MET at all, and don’t claim to be. Nor do I have the understanding that Wiz or any Red Tag has.

But meteorology seems to be a very delicate balance many times.  As soon as you get consumed with looking at one thing/aspect, that’s the downfall it seems.  Something can always offset something else, and it’s different in every case.  The dry air was there..but it didn’t do what some thought it would; or at least not to the degree that it was thought it could.  
 

Credit to Kevin and Ginxy...they had the right idea on this one. 

It's very possible I did...but debating that is a Monday morning QB type deal. All guidance was hinting at not only dry air in the llvls but a significant amount of dry air...along with subsidence. The only aspect I think that was pretty agreed upon was the degree of lift in the mlvls associated with the fronto...all models were incredibly consistent with that.

So then it was a battle between the stronger lift and the dry air in the llvls...there are times where the dry air wins out and there are times it doesn't. 

What makes forecasting incredibly challenging is at the end of the day analyzing model data and interpreting model data is going to be viewed differently by many. This is why historical events and research is a significantly underrated part of forecasting b/c through experience you can start to gauge the scenarios when flags will dominate or where the flags will be overcome. 

Heck...even as late as yesterday morning models were sort of trending down. for me...I think it was late last evening when I saw the HRRR and being more consistent that I realized I was cooked. 

[EastonSN+]

2 hours ago, The 4 Seasons said:

please send me your totals when its all said and done. im at about 3 here probably not too much more it completely ended for now.

think my call worked out perfectly from what i can tell

2.5 inches final for Easton.

5 inches on the year.

[HinghamBoss]

We are  somewhere between 4-5" here in Hingham and still coming down pretty good here.  I'm an admitted lurker to the group and have seen the December to Remember fodder.  I know the totals are not epic yet, but this is an absolute gift when we consider the last 5-6 Decembers (or January's).  Hard to knock flakes flying every few days.  I'll take the nickel/dimers, with the occasional bigger storm any winter.

[weatherwiz]

5 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

I think not having hourly soundings can result in some missed opportunities for analysis. Also there was lift below the 850 dry air that produced some snow. Looks like 3 to 6 amounts were close to final outcome. Snowing good here now.

I completely agree. 

This also isn't the first time I've been burned with these thoughts over the years...I think the struggle is (for me anyways) determining when that dry air will be a problem and when it won't. Trying to think back to past events where I've been burned like this what I kinda gather is...if you have sufficient lift in the snowgrowth zone and moisture...perhaps the llvls aren't as important. Sufficient lift into the DGZ doesn't only mean great snowgrowth, but it also indicates heavy precip rates...this can cool and saturate the column or at least offset the degree of drying. 

There are times too where we've had setups with great lift around 850 and even though the snowgrowth wasn't great...it produced. 

[eduggs]

8 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Eduggs, wiz is a trained met who made a conjecture that ended up being wrong but is often right based on the sounding.  He’s always respectful and a very nice young man F2F.  You’re acting like a complete dick.

He is one of the best posters for his enthusiasm and interest in the hobby.  I commend him for that.  But the counterpoint to his poorly supported ideas was lacking.  My criticisms are more for the others than for him.  Many of us are "trained", red tag or not.  

And I'm sure he can take the criticism.  Forecasting zilch when everything else is 2-4" for days is ballsy.  When you stick your neck out that's what should happen.  It teaches you to respect the models.

[snowman21]

2-4 was probably the best call. Only an inch here, but we lost some accums  because of 32+ temps. OKX had 2-4 across much of their CT zones, so good job by them.

[WinterWolf]

3 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

It's very possible I did...but debating that is a Monday morning QB type deal. All guidance was hinting at not only dry air in the llvls but a significant amount of dry air...along with subsidence. The only aspect I think that was pretty agreed upon was the degree of lift in the mlvls associated with the fronto...all models were incredibly consistent with that.

So then it was a battle between the stronger lift and the dry air in the llvls...there are times where the dry air wins out and there are times it doesn't. 

What makes forecasting incredibly challenging is at the end of the day analyzing model data and interpreting model data is going to be viewed differently by many. This is why historical events and research is a significantly underrated part of forecasting b/c through experience you can start to gauge the scenarios when flags will dominate or where the flags will be overcome. 

Heck...even as late as yesterday morning models were sort of trending down. for me...I think it was late last evening when I saw the HRRR and being more consistent that I realized I was cooked. 

All great points Wiz.  And I agree.

 

It’s a learning experience for all of us..even the Pros.  

[Ginx snewx]

23 minutes ago, Greg said:

The Rutland amount looks a little weenish. Did they lean that stick?

Here's their pic.

[butterfish55]

Still .25-.5 visibility here....closing in on 5"

[weatherwiz]

4 minutes ago, eduggs said:

He is one of the best posters for his enthusiasm and interest in the hobby.  I commend him for that.  But the counterpoint to his poorly supported ideas was lacking.  My criticisms are more for the others than for him.  Many of us are "trained", red tag or not.  

And I'm sure he can take the criticism.  Forecasting zilch when everything else is 2-4" for days is ballsy.  When you stick your neck out that's what should happen.  It teaches you to respect the models.

There have been plenty of times in the past past where I (or even others) have gone completely against everyone else and ended up nailing it. Forecasting involves much, much, much more than just looking at a models output and saying, "this is what's going to happen because the model says so". 

There was extremely poor agreement between all forecast models along with poor run-to-run consistency. It really wasn't until the last minute when there was a converging of models. IMO, two major aspects that models agreed upon was;

1. significant presence of llvl dry air 

2. Exceptional mlvl lift

So here you have two opposing factors working on each other...what one wins out? Play this scenario 100 times and the results are going to vary significantly. So you have to look at other factors.

Doing so we see there was tremendous jet energy and support here...ULJ > 180 knots and a MLJ > 100 knots...this supports exceptional lift too...but there are also times where you have phenomenal jet support but it's not enough. 

Remember that event last March the forecasts for southern CT were like 10-20'' and totals ended up like 3-4''...I was adamant for days (I can link my blog post) that the storm would stay south and CT would not see much...but then at the last second I completely went against my idea and think I forecasted like 6-10''+...well I should have stuck to my thoughts b/c it was long island that got smoked.

But yeah...I can take criticism...it doesn't really bother me at all. But what I've learned too is you don't just forecast something b/c someone else is or b/c a large group of people are.  

[amarshall]

Looks like a band setting up right over my house.  At the office on the cape with 1.5" 

[weatherwiz]

It was fun though walking outside this morning and seeing a wet paste of snow on everything. Nothing more beautiful than that. 

[Ginx snewx]

Last band is legit Picked up an additional  .5 so far 4.25 now

[weatherwiz]

If we can get next week to pan out and then around Christmas...BDL could have a shot for a 100'' season!!!

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

5”

[ORH_wxman]

18 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Here's their pic.

You can see how good the snow growth was in that pic. This storm had high ratios. Esp elevated terrain where they didn't lose much qpf on the front end of the changeover.

Dendritic growth was excellent and that variable was actually portrayed very consistently on model guidance. One lesson this event should probably drive home is when there is really good snow growth progged, don't get too bearish/pessimistic. Cross hair structure makes up for many different types of sins on an event. 

If the lift had been progged to be maxing out near that layer of dry air, then it would have been different. But in this case, it was above the dry air in a saturated snow growth zone. 

[weatherwiz]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

You can see how good the snow growth was in that pic. This storm had high ratios. Esp elevated terrain where they didn't lose much qpf on the front end of the changeover.

Dendritic growth was excellent and that variable was actually portrayed very consistently on model guidance. One lesson this event should probably drive home is when there is really good snow growth progged, don't get too bearish/pessimistic. Cross hair structure makes up for many different types of sins on an event. 

If the lift had been progged to be maxing out near that layer of dry air, then it would have been different. But in this case, it was above the dry air in a saturated snow growth zone. 

This is what I certainly learned this time. Honestly should have learned this from previous mistakes, but this time it will stick to the noodle. 

[weathafella]

3 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

5”

Your reverse psychology worked like a charm!

[Mr. Windcredible!]

Ended up with about 3” here

[weathafella]

Meanwhile -snowing nicely in Jamaica Plain.

[weatherwiz]

Will,

Do you know how much snow BDL had through December during the 1995-1996 season? 

[CoastalWx]

Guidance was much more aggressive after 00z runs on the SG. But there was some signals there. I know we spoke about it. 

[Ginx snewx]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

You can see how good the snow growth was in that pic. This storm had high ratios. Esp elevated terrain where they didn't lose much qpf on the front end of the changeover.

Dendritic growth was excellent and that variable was actually portrayed very consistently on model guidance. One lesson this event should probably drive home is when there is really good snow growth progged, don't get too bearish/pessimistic. Cross hair structure makes up for many different types of sins on an event. 

If the lift had been progged to be maxing out near that layer of dry air, then it would have been different. But in this case, it was above the dry air in a saturated snow growth zone. 

Yes excellent analysis.  Scooter kept mentioning great snow growth and I grew more confident that we would see a plowable event. Modeled qpf can be right on but as we saw with the blockbuster rote 10 to 1 can lead to under forecast. Good job here Will

[Ginx snewx]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

Guidance was much more aggressive after 00z runs on the SG. But there was some signals there. I know we spoke about it. 

You started mentioning it yesterday and yes I do pay attention to your posts. Lol good job identifying that. Looks like it's over here. 4.3 final

[ORH_wxman]

2 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Will,

Do you know how much snow BDL had through December during the 1995-1996 season? 

Looks like 25.9 through end of December. (5.6" in Nov '95 and 20.3" Dec '95)

[Baroclinic Zone]

2 hours ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

3” now

1030am

[weatherwiz]

3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Looks like 25.9 through end of December. (5.6" in Nov '95 and 20.3" Dec '95)

So we have a shot to eclipse that! I want a 100'' season again. Let's make it happen

[dryslot]

18 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Last band is legit Picked up an additional  .5 so far 4.25 now

Good call by the way, Congrats, Love those wood pics with trees covered.

[Baroclinic Zone]

21 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Last band is legit Picked up an additional  .5 so far 4.25 now

 

See if if pivots to here or scoots S over EWB.