The 4 Seasons Posted December 9, 2019 Share Posted December 9, 2019 This is my first ever thread for a snow threat, so hopefully it's a good one. (I promise to never start another one if it busts, ha.) We are now about 36hrs from the start of the event and the December Disco thread has a lot to cover so thought it was a good idea to seperate it. Right now this looks to me as a general 2-4 or so over a wide area of SNE. I don't think there will be much of a difference from coast to inland with the exception of elevation. This is a marginal situation where we will have snow falling on wet roads and places that had temps in the 50s for the past 2 days...so i think there will be a higher impact and more snow covered roads at higher elevations in the interior. There's definitely quite the spread amongst models right now with the GEM/RGEM/UKMET the most bullish and NAM/GFS/ICON/EC on the other side. There's a lot of red flags and things that can go wrong with this one with dry air in the mid levels, delayed precip changeover, etc. I think it's important to keep expectations in check. If everything works out i think the absolute cap with this one is a stripe of 4-8" somewhere in interior CT/MA. I want to look into this a little closer and checkout BUFkit before i issue a map. First map will probably be later today and final call tomorrow. All in all we are looking at our second widespread SNE snow threat and it's only 12/9, so we're off to a good start. Discuss on... 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sugarloaf1989 Posted December 9, 2019 Share Posted December 9, 2019 NWS p/c has 1-2" overnight Tuesday and 1-3" Wednesday here in Enfield. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted December 9, 2019 Author Share Posted December 9, 2019 NWS thoughts ATM. Coordination seems better but now BOX is more bullish than OKX, wide area of 3-4, 4-6 for 95% of CT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 9, 2019 Share Posted December 9, 2019 My forecast for CT is up to a coating of snow...with a coating to an inch in the northeast hills. Pros: Very strong mid-level lift/forcing enhanced by a potent 100+ MLJ streak moving through the region and a 150+ knot ULJ putting us in RFQ. Narrow ribbon of impressive frontogenesis Sufficient RH with respect to ice in the SGZ Cons: Alarmingly low values of relatively humidity in the lowest 5,000 feet of the atmosphere with pockets of dry air throughout the column Still under the presence of CAA Strong subsidence within the lowest 10,000 feet of the atmosphere As front moves through it begins to do so rather progressively All in all...dynamics are great to have, but dynamics alone aren't going to get the job done or get a job done. While we have the forcing/lift to generate the production of snow the degree of dry air will quickly eat anything that falls. The result...snow showers for many but based on timing it will likely lead to a slick AM commute with delays. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted December 9, 2019 Author Share Posted December 9, 2019 @SnowGoose69 I'm really not either but tbh i have not been reading or following anything from him since i left WXBell. I used to watch his daily Weather Avenger videos or whatever the hell they were called. I used to trust him and really try to follow what he was saying but my opinion has since changed. He's really biased to snow/cold and has a business to run, i was pretty green back 4-5 years ago and couldn't see that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 9, 2019 Share Posted December 9, 2019 Toss BOX map 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 9, 2019 Share Posted December 9, 2019 Just now, CoastalWx said: Toss BOX map Chuck em far and chuck em long Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 9, 2019 Share Posted December 9, 2019 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: Toss BOX map What’s your map look like? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted December 9, 2019 Author Share Posted December 9, 2019 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: Toss BOX map they went from the lowest to the highest (out of the 3 CWAs) in one shift change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 9, 2019 Share Posted December 9, 2019 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: What’s your map look like? 0-2" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 9, 2019 Share Posted December 9, 2019 Just for fun 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 9, 2019 Share Posted December 9, 2019 2 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: Chuck em far and chuck em long Yeah, that ain’t happening. Most people will be lucky to see 1-2”... nobody is seeing 6... that’s for sure. Sell Sell Sell 3-4 here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 9, 2019 Share Posted December 9, 2019 Just now, weatherwiz said: Just for fun Good map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 9, 2019 Share Posted December 9, 2019 4 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said: they went from the lowest to the highest (out of the 3 CWAs) in one shift change. I’m not saying that someone in a narrow area can’t get three or 4 inches, but that large of an area of 3 to 6 inches looks overdone in my opinion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 9, 2019 Share Posted December 9, 2019 Ray's map, as simple as it is, seems most likely. If he could add state lines or some thing that would help... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 9, 2019 Share Posted December 9, 2019 Just now, CoastalWx said: I’m not saying that someone in a narrow area can’t get three or 4 inches, but that large of an area of 3 to 6 inches looks overdone in my opinion. Remember, they only have certain ranges to pick from. They can't do 2-4" I think. That would work for most areas in SNE... Someone might get a 4" amount but that's a stretch. Up and in will be moisture starved 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 9, 2019 Share Posted December 9, 2019 4 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Good map Took like 3 seconds to make...I like lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted December 9, 2019 Author Share Posted December 9, 2019 1 minute ago, weatherwiz said: Took like 3 seconds to make...I like lol Those are the best ones. 2 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: Remember, they only have certain ranges to pick from. They can't do 2-4" I think. That would work for most areas in SNE... Someone might get a 4" amount but that's a stretch. Up and in will be moisture starved ? They have 2-3 and 3-4 ranges though. If they wanted to do 2-4 for SNE they could do a wide area of 2-3 and 3-4. What Scott's saying is that 4-6 aint happening on that wide of scale like they are painting it to be. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 9, 2019 Share Posted December 9, 2019 No changes since my 12 -8 post. 3 to 6 for the majority of SNE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 9, 2019 Share Posted December 9, 2019 24 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said: NWS thoughts ATM. Coordination seems better but now BOX is more bullish than OKX, wide area of 3-4, 4-6 for 95% of CT. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 9, 2019 Share Posted December 9, 2019 2 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: No changes since my 12 -8 post. 3 to 6 for the majority of SNE Yup. This ones easy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted December 9, 2019 Author Share Posted December 9, 2019 Oof. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted December 9, 2019 Author Share Posted December 9, 2019 NAM 12Z, is not nearly as dry but putting out less qpf than GFS. 18Z is rolling now out to 30 will see if it comes back up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted December 9, 2019 Share Posted December 9, 2019 3 minutes ago, moneypitmike said: Where the hell is Beeks!? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 9, 2019 Share Posted December 9, 2019 15 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: Remember, they only have certain ranges to pick from. They can't do 2-4" I think. That would work for most areas in SNE... Someone might get a 4" amount but that's a stretch. Up and in will be moisture starved They have 3-4 and 4-6 plots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 9, 2019 Share Posted December 9, 2019 8 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said: Oof. Look at the subsidence too below the DGZ haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted December 9, 2019 Author Share Posted December 9, 2019 NAM looks very dry so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted December 9, 2019 Author Share Posted December 9, 2019 2 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: Look at the subsidence too below the DGZ haha Not what you want to see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 9, 2019 Share Posted December 9, 2019 12 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said: Oof. Yeah oof instead of woof. GFS is OTL. Toss that model in the trash. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 9, 2019 Share Posted December 9, 2019 Just now, The 4 Seasons said: Not what you want to see. Nope. Hell...there isn't even any lift in the DZG. Something is obviously off with the precip algorithm on the GFS...it just loves to overdo QPF behind Arctic fronts. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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