Amateur Winter Forecast (put yours here)

[ChescoWx]

I thought I would share an excerpt of my winter forecast that is being published this week in the East Nantmeal Sweetwater Reporter. Unlike some winter outlooks that are chance outlooks - I have tried to put actual numbers into the forecast (keep in mind this is specifically for East Nantmeal Township in NW Chester County PA)...which will likely show exactly how far I am off when we validate as we go along.

So, what does this portend for the upcoming winter season? Below is my forecast for 2019/2020 for East Nantmeal Township. with average temperature and snowfall estimates by month. To summarize regarding temperatures.  I see a slightly above normal December with a bit of a roller coaster. Cold to start warm up mid-month and turning cold by Christmas week. We generally have a 25% chance of a White Christmas with our last being in 2012. I do believe we have a chance of a White Christmas this year.  I expect a below normal and snowy January followed by a near normal but snowy February, a below normal March and an above normal April. Regarding snowfall I am forecasting around 51” of snowfall this winter season or about 14” above our seasonal average of 36.7”. Unlike the past few years I do think we see at least one or two major snowstorms with greater than 10” accumulations.

• December 2019 – Avg. Temperature 35.1 degrees (+1.5) above normal with Snowfall of 7.5” which is 2.8” above normal

• January 2020 – Avg. Temperature 27.7 degrees (-2.2) below normal with Snowfall of 19” or +8.1” above normal

• February 2020 – Avg. Temperature 32.9 degrees (+0.5) above normal with Snowfall of 17” or +4.8” above normal

• March 2020 – Avg. Temperature 38.9 (-1.4) below normal with Snowfall of 7” or +0.7” above normal

• April 2020 – Avg. Temperature 53.9 (+2.6) above normal with Snowfall of 0.5” or 0.6” below normal