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12/10-11/19 Potential Valley Wide Snow Event.


John1122
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31 minutes ago, Chattownsnow said:

Gfs came in a lot beefier for west central Tennessee. 

Yeah, that 1031 HP From the plains swoops down rather quickly just like the cold air convo @Holston_River_RamblerWas having yesterday, similar situation just different pieces of the puzzle.  Pretty cool feature to see especially the speed at which it comes in to the area

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Good to see new members posting. Thank you for the observations! Welcome to the board. If long time lurkers, welcome to posting on the board.

Memphis will have a tough time. Looks like that dry air aloft is quite evident on the radar, hole around the site. Nashville might have the same problem; however, being farther east keeps BNA in the game longer.

GFS bless its heart. Had the dry air near MEM but still tried to spit out lots of snow accumulation. GFS forecast all that virga but forgot it's not hitting the ground. NAM radar simulation looks wrong compared to live composite radar; however, NAM is right it's not hitting the ground. 

I still think it could be a good day on the Upper Plateau into East Kentucky. Have the Ice Cube song ready, lol!

MRX to TRI is such a crap shoot trying to get the Valley to cool off. However maybe the NWS has a point about cold air delayed but not denied meeting moisture at the right time. (Post is back on page 3).

Speaking of looking back, page 4 dual pole radar discussion is a good read. Thanks y'all.

One easy part of the forecast: Chattanooga all rain.

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31 minutes ago, nrgjeff said:

Good to see new members posting. Thank you for the observations! Welcome to the board. If long time lurkers, welcome to posting on the board.

Memphis will have a tough time. Looks like that dry air aloft is quite evident on the radar, hole around the site. Nashville might have the same problem; however, being farther east keeps BNA in the game longer.

GFS bless its heart. Had the dry air near MEM but still tried to spit out lots of snow accumulation. GFS forecast all that virga but forgot it's not hitting the ground. NAM radar simulation looks wrong compared to live composite radar; however, NAM is right it's not hitting the ground. 

I still think it could be a good day on the Upper Plateau into East Kentucky. Have the Ice Cube song ready, lol!

MRX to TRI is such a crap shoot trying to get the Valley to cool off. However maybe the NWS has a point about cold air delayed but not denied meeting moisture at the right time. (Post is back on page 3).

Speaking of looking back, page 4 dual pole radar discussion is a good read. Thanks y'all.

One easy part of the forecast: Chattanooga all rain.

YUP,short range models are under doing the dry air,the moisture fizzles out by the time it gets to us :(

 

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