TellicoWx Posted December 9, 2019 Share Posted December 9, 2019 SREF just jumped up over SE KY (not populated for TN locations as of me making this gif). An even better NAMing incoming? Is that even possible? Vort is a tad stronger along CA/AZ border on 0z..see how it goes Sent from my SM-S767VL using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted December 9, 2019 Share Posted December 9, 2019 There's our energy rolling down the CA coast. Looks healthy. Is this a situation where it is just now getting sampled beyond satellite level. Am I just full of wishful thinking? I guess we'll know Wednesday morning, lol. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted December 9, 2019 Share Posted December 9, 2019 00z NAM weaker with the trailing energy over west TN...step toward the GFS/Euro.Sent from my SM-S767VL using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted December 9, 2019 Share Posted December 9, 2019 47 minutes ago, TellicoWx said: see how it goes 12km cuts totals. Still some respectable totals though, just not cray cray 8 inch+ stuff Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted December 9, 2019 Author Share Posted December 9, 2019 Normally the NAM will start to correct its wonky stuff within 36-48 hours of the event. Hi-res backed off about 10-20 percent on totals as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted December 9, 2019 Share Posted December 9, 2019 Looks like it kept the energy more consolidated toward the Gulf longer vs prior runs (results in the precip increase over C AL). Sent from my SM-S767VL using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted December 9, 2019 Share Posted December 9, 2019 00z RGEM coming in a tad slower/stronger with the wave as it moves over TXSent from my SM-S767VL using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted December 9, 2019 Share Posted December 9, 2019 00z NAM had a better energy setup between middle TN and smokies, but really drove a dry slot in between 700 and 850 cutting totals.Sent from my SM-S767VL using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted December 9, 2019 Author Share Posted December 9, 2019 Huge GFS run. Hits every one in the forum except it blanks Hamilton Co/NE Alabama. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted December 9, 2019 Share Posted December 9, 2019 Huge GFS run. Hits every one in the forum except it blanks Hamilton Co/NE Alabama. It also followed the meso models (just not quite to the same extent) of slightly stronger energy Sent from my SM-S767VL using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted December 9, 2019 Author Share Posted December 9, 2019 Clown map for it. Using my standard 33 percent reduction, this would still be a nice event for most areas of the valley region. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted December 9, 2019 Share Posted December 9, 2019 The 0z RGEM was a plastering of snow (5-8”) from Memphis, through Jackson and into northern middle TN. Only goes to 48 and is still snowing in these locations at the end of its run. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted December 9, 2019 Share Posted December 9, 2019 Overall so far a nice 00z suite, with the exception of the NAM maybe overemphasizing the consolidation of the energy over C AL. RGEM was headed for glory lol.Sent from my SM-S767VL using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kentucky Posted December 9, 2019 Share Posted December 9, 2019 2 minutes ago, TellicoWx said: Overall so far a nice 00z suite, with the exception of the NAM maybe overemphasizing the consolidation of the energy over C AL. RGEM was headed for glory lol. Sent from my SM-S767VL using Tapatalk I really want to see that full rgem run, for entertainment purposes if nothing else Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted December 9, 2019 Author Share Posted December 9, 2019 Saw that Robert (WX South) was feeling pretty confident in a few inches coming down fast in the forum region. Mentioned that most of the accumulation would be on grass/decks etc. But seems confident rain will change to heavy snow from Arkansas/Mississippi into Kentucky and Virgina. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted December 9, 2019 Author Share Posted December 9, 2019 Hi-Res GFS was a little larger with snow coverage than the 18z run. Its filled the Nashville heat island from .8 to 2 inches in the last 12 hours of runs. Also expanded the snow more in the Eastern areas south of 40 vs earlier runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted December 9, 2019 Share Posted December 9, 2019 https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=rgem®ion=seus&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2019120900&fh=48 accumulations https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=rgem®ion=seus&pkg=asnow&runtime=2019120900&fh=48 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted December 9, 2019 Author Share Posted December 9, 2019 1 minute ago, tnweathernut said: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=rgem®ion=seus&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2019120900&fh=48 That's some pretty heavy snow showing up! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted December 9, 2019 Share Posted December 9, 2019 2 minutes ago, John1122 said: That's some pretty heavy snow showing up! No doubt, John. The RGEM struggles sometimes on the back end of a run, but I’ve also seen it win a battle or two. Will be interesting to see how this one plays out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted December 9, 2019 Share Posted December 9, 2019 CMC following the suite trend so far with slower/stronger...snow breaking out in C TX this runSent from my SM-S767VL using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted December 9, 2019 Share Posted December 9, 2019 Big run coming for CMC...C AR / W TN (Memphis) big jump vs 12zSent from my SM-S767VL using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Will (little rock) Posted December 9, 2019 Share Posted December 9, 2019 Just now, TellicoWx said: Big run coming for CMC...C AR / W TN (Memphis) big jump vs 12z Sent from my SM-S767VL using Tapatalk Oh yeah, im enjoying this trend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted December 9, 2019 Author Share Posted December 9, 2019 Lots of sleet on the Canadian. Still manages to put down 2-6 inches of snow over a good portion of the Valley. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted December 9, 2019 Share Posted December 9, 2019 0z CMCSent from my SM-S767VL using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted December 9, 2019 Author Share Posted December 9, 2019 The 39 hour rap is running. Looks like it will snow from Texas to Tennessee on it as well. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Will (little rock) Posted December 9, 2019 Share Posted December 9, 2019 Just now, John1122 said: The 39 hour rap is running. Looks like it will snow from Texas to Tennessee on it as well. Where do I find this map? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted December 9, 2019 Share Posted December 9, 2019 Lots of sleet on the Canadian. Still manages to put down 2-6 inches of snow over a good portion of the Valley. Yeah definitely want to go with your 33% ruleSent from my SM-S767VL using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted December 9, 2019 Author Share Posted December 9, 2019 Pivatol weather has it. It runs out to 39 hours at 3z, 9z, 15z and 21z. Only 21 hours otherwise. It looks faster with the transition to frozen. Eyeballing, it's probably 50-75 miles east with the frozen line vs the NAM during the same timeframe. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted December 9, 2019 Share Posted December 9, 2019 Either all modeling is catching on with the short wave coming on shore currently over CA or this is the biggest Lucy job in quite awhile (especially for you guys in middle/west TN) lol.Sent from my SM-S767VL using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted December 9, 2019 Author Share Posted December 9, 2019 4 minutes ago, TellicoWx said: Either all modeling is catching on with the short wave coming on shore currently over CA or this is the biggest Lucy job in quite awhile (especially for you guys in middle/west TN) lol. Sent from my SM-S767VL using Tapatalk I would be very confident with this much model agreement before the flaming burns from the last two years. If this was showing up on models along the gulf coast or mid west I'd say take it to the bank from this close in, but our area seems incredibly prone to model busts when snow is involved. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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