John1122 Posted December 8, 2019 Share Posted December 8, 2019 We now stand around 48 hours from snow falling in the area according to models. Anafrontal moisture will linger and allow the colder air to catch up, but how much cold and how much moisture remains the eternal question in our region. According to most model suites, plenty of both, but even though we are 48 hours out, models have been particularly bad at sniffing out actual snow events the last two or three years. So even with multiple model consensus that accumulating snow will happen, at best we can say "who knows?" at this point regarding how much, if any accumulates. Right now, Southern Arkansas to SEKY/SWVA look to be in play and the NAM is just namming it's heart out, having just delivered another juicy run for the region, especially mid and western areas of the Valley. WFO in the area remain rightfully skeptical, but are beginning to mention post frontal snow being possible, though in far less amounts than models are willing to churn out. Will it come to pass or go poof? Only the next 48-72 hours will tell. Still, our third potential event and it's not even solar winter yet, so things seem to be off to a good start. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted December 8, 2019 Author Share Posted December 8, 2019 NAM is still churning. Odd note, in SWCC in an area of around 3000-3500 feet it manages a snowhole. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted December 8, 2019 Author Share Posted December 8, 2019 Hi res NAM, not as bullish, especially over the mid and western valley. Still snowing far east at 60. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted December 8, 2019 Share Posted December 8, 2019 Control 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AMZ8990 Posted December 8, 2019 Share Posted December 8, 2019 11 minutes ago, jaxjagman said: Control I’ll take member 26, Please! Lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kentucky Posted December 8, 2019 Share Posted December 8, 2019 18z GFS through 72 Total Snowfall & Snow Depth 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AMZ8990 Posted December 8, 2019 Share Posted December 8, 2019 RGEM 18z jumps on board with some NAM like numbers as well for middle and western Tennessee. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted December 8, 2019 Author Share Posted December 8, 2019 That 18z GFS was its biggest run to date. Really increased totals for Arkansas and North Miss into West Tenn vs 12z. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AMZ8990 Posted December 8, 2019 Share Posted December 8, 2019 4 minutes ago, John1122 said: That 18z GFS was its biggest run to date. Really increased totals for Arkansas and North Miss into West Tenn vs 12z. Nice run for sure, especially when the EURO is on board with it as well. Nice trends on most models today 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted December 8, 2019 Author Share Posted December 8, 2019 Just now, AMZ8990 said: Nice run for sure, especially when the EURO is on board with it as well. Nice trends on most models today At this point it's either going to be an across the board model bust, or some widespread white ground. Not much middle ground with this one. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AMZ8990 Posted December 8, 2019 Share Posted December 8, 2019 6 minutes ago, John1122 said: At this point it's either going to be an across the board model bust, or some widespread white ground. Not much middle ground with this one. I’d rather have it that way any day. Much more fun without the constant wondering of which in particular mode was correct. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nash_LSU Posted December 8, 2019 Share Posted December 8, 2019 5 minutes ago, John1122 said: At this point it's either going to be an across the board model bust, or some widespread white ground. Not much middle ground with this one. I'm not a gambling man, but if I were, I'd put my money on the former. The past couple years have broken my trust in the models and their ability to predict snow in Middle Tennessee. I'll happily eat crow, though. A lot of crow. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AMZ8990 Posted December 8, 2019 Share Posted December 8, 2019 2 minutes ago, Nash_LSU said: I'm not a gambling man, but if I were, I'd put my money on the former. The past couple years have broken my trust in the models and their ability to predict snow in Middle Tennessee. I'll happily eat crow, though. A lot of crow. I’m right there with you, I’m in a constant thought of were just getting NAMMED by all the models anytime it shows snow. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Utvols235 Posted December 8, 2019 Share Posted December 8, 2019 The NAM is like Vol Twitter. Not always right but aggressive and fun to watch. Sometimes it wins big. That being said it’s nice to have two systems this early in the season that we’ve been able to watch. Lets hope things keep trending the right way. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AMZ8990 Posted December 8, 2019 Share Posted December 8, 2019 3 minutes ago, Utvols235 said: The NAM is like Vol Twitter. Not always right but aggressive and fun to watch. Sometimes it wins big. That being said it’s nice to have two systems this early in the season that we’ve been able to watch. Lets hope things keep trending the right way. You been on VOLNATIOn today?? it got pretty crazy in there today. Lol. I’m glad we’re headed to the gator bowl though. GBO 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 8, 2019 Share Posted December 8, 2019 30 minutes ago, Nash_LSU said: I'm not a gambling man, but if I were, I'd put my money on the former. The past couple years have broken my trust in the models and their ability to predict snow in Middle Tennessee. I'll happily eat crow, though. A lot of crow. Guessing that you are an LSU Tiger due to your handle...since they have had such a great year, you probably need to post in each winter thread so some of that good mojo can rub off. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlunderStorm Posted December 8, 2019 Share Posted December 8, 2019 I know one thing for sure, I don't envy the position of the mets in forecasting this potential snow. A lot is going to depend on how quickly cold air advection reaches the precipitation shield. (If there is much of one) I'd say this is a situation where being north and west may be just as helpful as being at a good elevation. On another note the RGEM fwiw sure is making a lot of fanfare for it's debut depicting this one! (hour 54 and still plenty left to go at the end of it's run) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted December 9, 2019 Share Posted December 9, 2019 Pretty close to being the big dog in mId Tn 18z run,the thermals make me squirmish tho GFS 0.5 Degree FORECAST FOR: BNA LAT= 36.12 LON= -86.68 ELE= 591 18Z DEC08 * - APPROXIMATED 2 M 850 1000 FZING SFC SFC 3/6 SNCVR TMP TMP 850 HGT WIND PCP HR LIQ (C) (C) THK (FT) (KTS) TYPES (IN) (IN) SUN 18Z 08-DEC 13.0 5.3 135 11391 18008 0.00 SUN 21Z 08-DEC 12.6 6.1 135 11425 17009 0.00 0.00 MON 00Z 09-DEC 11.8 6.7 135 11708 16011 0.00 0.00 MON 03Z 09-DEC 10.9 7.3 135 11147 17013 0.00 0.00 MON 06Z 09-DEC 11.2 7.9 135 9970 18012 0.00 0.00 MON 09Z 09-DEC 11.7 7.7 135 10358 18013 0.00 0.00 MON 12Z 09-DEC 12.9 7.2 135 10872 18014 0.00 0.00 MON 15Z 09-DEC 15.5 8.6 136 10591 19016 RA 0.00 0.00 MON 18Z 09-DEC 17.2 8.5 137 10695 21015 0.00 0.00 MON 21Z 09-DEC 16.1 8.9 137 11016 22013 RA 0.01 0.00 TUE 00Z 10-DEC 16.8 9.4 137 9911 22012 RA 0.02 0.00 TUE 03Z 10-DEC 16.6 9.6 137 9951 23010 RA 0.02 0.00 TUE 06Z 10-DEC 14.9 8.6 136 9945 28006 RA 0.03 0.00 TUE 09Z 10-DEC 10.0 6.4 134 10072 33010 0.01 0.00 TUE 12Z 10-DEC 4.1 3.0 131 10217 34011 0.02 0.00 TUE 15Z 10-DEC 1.3 0.5 130 6203 34007 SN 0.12 0.02 TUE 18Z 10-DEC 0.5 0.6 129 6742 36008 SN 0.27 0.10 TUE 21Z 10-DEC -0.1 -0.9 129 5370 00007 SN 0.07 0.15 WED 00Z 11-DEC -0.6 -0.8 129 2803 35004 SN 0.16 0.21 WED 03Z 11-DEC -1.2 -1.5 129 120 36006 SN 0.09 0.30 WED 06Z 11-DEC -2.0 0.1 129 3999 02004 0.11 0.35 WED 09Z 11-DEC -4.4 0.3 129 4681 02003 0.00 0.35 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted December 9, 2019 Share Posted December 9, 2019 Thes are also 3-hr increments,just pointing that out,just trying to figure out when fz heights fall GFS 0.5 Degree FORECAST FOR: TYS LAT= 35.82 LON= -83.98 ELE= 981 18Z DEC08 * - APPROXIMATED 2 M 850 1000 FZING SFC SFC 3/6 SNCVR TMP TMP 850 HGT WIND PCP HR LIQ (C) (C) THK (FT) (KTS) TYPES (IN) (IN) SUN 18Z 08-DEC 13.1 4.2 134 10607 20003 0.00 SUN 21Z 08-DEC 12.9 5.6 135 10712 31000 0.00 0.00 MON 00Z 09-DEC 9.9 6.8 135 10879 12001 0.00 0.00 MON 03Z 09-DEC 9.3 7.8 135 9087 14001 0.00 0.00 MON 06Z 09-DEC 9.1 7.6 135 9362 14003 0.01 0.00 MON 09Z 09-DEC 8.9 8.4 135 9741 11004 0.01 0.00 MON 12Z 09-DEC 9.1 8.6 135 10304 15004 0.05 0.00 MON 15Z 09-DEC 11.0 9.1 135 11059 16004 0.00 0.00 MON 18Z 09-DEC 14.1 8.0 136 11051 21007 0.00 0.00 MON 21Z 09-DEC 15.9 8.5 137 11181 20010 0.00 0.00 TUE 00Z 10-DEC 15.0 9.0 137 10780 20009 RA 0.00 0.00 TUE 03Z 10-DEC 15.1 9.8 137 11117 21008 RA 0.01 0.00 TUE 06Z 10-DEC 14.9 10.1 137 11401 21008 RA 0.01 0.00 TUE 09Z 10-DEC 15.3 10.3 137 11561 21008 RA 0.02 0.00 TUE 12Z 10-DEC 14.8 9.5 137 11699 28004 RA 0.23 0.00 TUE 15Z 10-DEC 10.4 4.3 134 11558 35004 RA 0.30 0.00 TUE 18Z 10-DEC 7.4 2.5 133 11390 34005 RA 0.40 0.00 TUE 21Z 10-DEC 5.7 1.4 132 10449 00006 RA 0.17 0.00 WED 00Z 11-DEC 3.4 0.5 131 7012 01006 RA 0.34 0.00 WED 03Z 11-DEC 3.1 0.0 131 7281 03005 RA 0.10 0.00 WED 06Z 11-DEC 1.9 -0.7 130 5030 00006 SN 0.20 0.02 WED 09Z 11-DEC 1.0 -1.6 130 2631 01004 SN 0.14 0.15 WED 12Z 11-DEC 0.8 0.9 130 5836 03003 0.15 0.18 WED 15Z 11-DEC 2.6 1.1 131 6235 01004 0.00 0.16 WED 18Z 11-DEC 5.8 -0.1 131 4979 01004 0.00 0.13 WED 21Z 11-DEC 5.8 -0.3 131 4744 03004 0.00 0.08 THU 00Z 12-DEC 2.7 0.3 131 6258 04003 0.00 0.08 THU 03Z 12-DEC 1.5 0.8 131 7225 04004 0.00 0.08 THU 06Z 12-DEC 1.0 1.8 131 8099 06004 0.00 0.08 THU 09Z 12-DEC 0.6 2.8 131 8017 05004 0.00 0.08 THU 12Z 12-DEC 0.4 3.6 132 7980 05004 0.00 0.08 THU 15Z 12-DEC 4.2 4.3 132 8513 05004 0.00 0.08 THU 18Z 12-DEC 8.5 4.4 133 8908 05003 0.00 0.07 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted December 9, 2019 Share Posted December 9, 2019 GFS 0.5 Degree FORECAST FOR: MEM LAT= 35.05 LON= -90.00 ELE= 285 18Z DEC08 * - APPROXIMATED 2 M 850 1000 FZING SFC SFC 3/6 SNCVR TMP TMP 850 HGT WIND PCP HR LIQ (C) (C) THK (FT) (KTS) TYPES (IN) (IN) SUN 18Z 08-DEC 14.3 8.0 135 12364 19009 0.00 SUN 21Z 08-DEC 14.9 8.6 135 12092 19011 0.00 0.00 MON 00Z 09-DEC 12.7 9.4 136 11827 18009 0.00 0.00 MON 03Z 09-DEC 13.5 10.2 136 11473 18012 0.00 0.00 MON 06Z 09-DEC 13.5 9.4 136 11417 19012 0.00 0.00 MON 09Z 09-DEC 13.6 9.7 136 11295 18014 0.00 0.00 MON 12Z 09-DEC 13.4 13.9 136 10717 20013 0.00 0.00 MON 15Z 09-DEC 14.9 10.3 136 11181 20015 RA 0.00 0.00 MON 18Z 09-DEC 17.7 9.7 137 11689 21015 RA 0.00 0.00 MON 21Z 09-DEC 18.6 10.6 137 10839 22013 RA 0.00 0.00 TUE 00Z 10-DEC 17.4 9.2 137 10808 23008 RA 0.01 0.00 TUE 03Z 10-DEC 15.5 9.3 136 10859 31009 0.00 0.00 TUE 06Z 10-DEC 11.3 8.4 134 9964 34011 0.00 0.00 TUE 09Z 10-DEC 5.6 4.4 132 10334 35012 0.00 0.00 TUE 12Z 10-DEC 2.9 1.6 130 6889 35009 RA 0.09 0.00 TUE 15Z 10-DEC 1.7 2.1 130 6951 01010 SN 0.14 0.04 TUE 18Z 10-DEC 1.2 -0.1 130 6108 01009 SN 0.23 0.09 TUE 21Z 10-DEC 0.7 -0.3 130 6946 02007 SN 0.10 0.16 WED 00Z 11-DEC 0.6 -1.5 129 416 02007 SN 0.13 0.24 WED 03Z 11-DEC 0.0 -0.5 130 3000 04005 0.00 0.24 WED 06Z 11-DEC -1.0 1.3 130 6276 03005 0.00 0.24 WED 09Z 11-DEC -2.0 2.1 131 6331 07005 0.00 0.24 WED 12Z 11-DEC -2.0 2.2 131 6348 05004 0.00 0.24 WED 15Z 11-DEC 0.5 1.9 131 6105 06005 0.00 0.24 WED 18Z 11-DEC 4.5 1.9 132 6606 07005 0.00 0.16 WED 21Z 11-DEC 5.5 2.3 132 8113 06005 0.00 0.08 THU 00Z 12-DEC 2.5 2.4 132 7964 06005 0.00 0.08 THU 03Z 12-DEC 1.9 3.0 133 7885 07006 0.00 0.08 THU 06Z 12-DEC 1.3 3.8 133 8051 09006 0.00 0.08 THU 09Z 12-DEC 1.6 4.1 133 8542 08006 0.00 0.08 THU 12Z 12-DEC 1.5 3.8 133 8401 07007 0.00 0.08 THU 15Z 12-DEC 4.1 4.8 133 9940 09009 0.00 0.08 THU 18Z 12-DEC 8.3 5.2 133 10181 10007 0.00 0.04 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted December 9, 2019 Share Posted December 9, 2019 Trend continued over all the 12z/18z models of strengthening on the trailing energy, including the NAM. CMC generated a low, but lost the connection to the front (if strengthening can continue with a weak low reflection riding up the front...could be looking at a real big dog for plateau west). For central/southern valley of east tn (south 40), still need quite a bit of changes in the energy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nash_LSU Posted December 9, 2019 Share Posted December 9, 2019 1 hour ago, Carvers Gap said: Guessing that you are an LSU Tiger due to your handle...since they have had such a great year, you probably need to post in each winter thread so some of that good mojo can rub off. If that's what it takes to right this ship, then can do, boss! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted December 9, 2019 Share Posted December 9, 2019 18z Euro looks more Control run 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted December 9, 2019 Share Posted December 9, 2019 Close up of the 18z Euro 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 9, 2019 Share Posted December 9, 2019 Looks like the timeframe for the far eastern valley is between 3AM and 9AM...that sound about right? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 9, 2019 Share Posted December 9, 2019 31 minutes ago, Nash_LSU said: If that's what it takes to right this ship, then can do, boss! Glad to see you posting! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted December 9, 2019 Share Posted December 9, 2019 5 minutes ago, TellicoWx said: Close up of the 18z Euro Looks better than a couple days ago.The high temp would be in the early morning and temps would gradually fall during the day.I really believe the orographic lift towards the plateau are going to do much better than what is being shown,seen this to many times Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted December 9, 2019 Share Posted December 9, 2019 Looks better than a couple days ago.The high temp would be in the early morning and temps would gradually fall during the day.I really believe the orographic lift towards the plateau are going to do much better than what is being shown,seen this to many timesThe trail energy behind the front is key..NAM is stronger and further west of the main front, while GFS is weaker and more over central TN to the plateau. Trail energy catches the front along the smokies, not providing very much lift for the eastern valley..becoming more orographic dependent for lift. Which is correct is the biggest question. I think you're in a good spot (unless modeling starts loosing the trail energy) as far as lift.Sent from my SM-S767VL using Tapatalk 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted December 9, 2019 Share Posted December 9, 2019 SREF just jumped up over SE KY (not populated for TN locations as of me making this gif). An even better NAMing incoming? Is that even possible? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kentucky Posted December 9, 2019 Share Posted December 9, 2019 1 minute ago, Holston_River_Rambler said: SREF just jumped up over SE KY (not populated for TN locations as of me making this gif). An even better NAMing incoming? Is that even possible? 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now