Ralph Wiggum Posted December 8, 2019 Share Posted December 8, 2019 Most models are now showing a wave of low pressure riding up along a cold front Tuesday night into Wednesday. Wont be a prolific snowmaker but could lay down some light accumulations in spots and impact AM rush on Wednesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 8, 2019 Author Share Posted December 8, 2019 I'm off to work but the NAM (ugh) has a slower trailing wave and more overrunning in a WSW-ENE trajectory than 6z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted December 8, 2019 Share Posted December 8, 2019 12z ECM 2.5-4.5" snow for this region. Another difficult forecast with an ana-front type system these are #2 on the complex scale behind miller B's. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted December 8, 2019 Share Posted December 8, 2019 15 minutes ago, RedSky said: 12z ECM 2.5-4.5" snow for this region. Another difficult forecast with an ana-front type system these are #2 on the complex scale behind miller B's. Bingo. Ugh. 2 hard to forecast storms with sky high bust potentials to start the year 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JSharp Posted December 9, 2019 Share Posted December 9, 2019 7 hours ago, anthonyweather said: Bingo. Ugh. 2 hard to forecast storms with sky high bust potentials to start the year Isn't that typical for this time of year? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted December 9, 2019 Share Posted December 9, 2019 0z ECM backed down to 1-2" as other models ramped up a bit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 9, 2019 Author Share Posted December 9, 2019 Looks like a stripe of c-2" through SE PA for this one is the consensus among guidance. Accums will struggle with the 2 mild days ahead of the system and low precip rates generally. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted December 9, 2019 Share Posted December 9, 2019 1 hour ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Looks like a stripe of c-2" through SE PA for this one is the consensus among guidance. Accums will struggle with the 2 mild days ahead of the system and low precip rates generally. Timing looks to be mostly in the overnight early AM - so I would not expect much struggle with accumulations with the exception of paved surfaces. Which of course don't matter when it comes to snow accumulations Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted December 9, 2019 Share Posted December 9, 2019 18z NAM not too impressed NW of Philly, south Jersey looking better. But give it another 6 hours and it will change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted December 9, 2019 Share Posted December 9, 2019 C - 1" slop on unpaved surfaces is what I'm thinking. It will look nice for a bit but in the end really nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SP Posted December 10, 2019 Share Posted December 10, 2019 Another monmouth county special?Not a major deal.....just the focus. 1-3Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 10, 2019 Author Share Posted December 10, 2019 1 hour ago, SP said: Another monmouth county special? Not a major deal.....just the focus. 1-3 Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk Most guidance is the c-2" or 3" deal with usual Canadian models ramping up the banding with a stripe of 5-10" over SE PA and NJ. Unfortunately for snow lovers the canadian models are usually not accurate irt snowfall amounts. With that said tho, need to see if the banding shown on those models is consistent among other mesos today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted December 10, 2019 Share Posted December 10, 2019 c-2" seems reasonable for most of the area. Though I'd expect most accumulations to be in the coating variety. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 10, 2019 Author Share Posted December 10, 2019 36 minutes ago, The Iceman said: c-2" seems reasonable for most of the area. Though I'd expect most accumulations to be in the coating variety. Strongly agree. Best convergence seems to be right over the Del River into NJ so maybe if there is banding it sets up there. Classic cold chasing rain. Unfortunately the cold push looks stronger than originally modeled and may chase the precip out quicker. Next week looks interesting on guidance 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted December 10, 2019 Share Posted December 10, 2019 I BELIEVE! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted December 10, 2019 Share Posted December 10, 2019 Check out the 12z 3km NAM and match it up to the current radar. It’s not even close. Especially in Tennessee and Kentucky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 10, 2019 Author Share Posted December 10, 2019 1 hour ago, The Iceman said: I BELIEVE! You are in a better spot than us in central Bucks...if guidance is right with the banding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted December 10, 2019 Share Posted December 10, 2019 48 minutes ago, LVblizzard said: Check out the 12z 3km NAM and match it up to the current radar. It’s not even close. Especially in Tennessee and Kentucky. You know what is matching up well to the current radar? The RGEM 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted December 10, 2019 Share Posted December 10, 2019 The radar hallucinations have begun it's now winter 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted December 10, 2019 Share Posted December 10, 2019 18z NAM brings a little more snow than 12z especially N and W. However it's precipitation reflection at even hour 1 is currently way off compared to what's actually occurring. Like it's not even close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted December 10, 2019 Share Posted December 10, 2019 Currently 52F after a high of 54F. It will be interesting to see how quickly (or slowly) temps drop this evening/later tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted December 11, 2019 Share Posted December 11, 2019 2 hours ago, JTA66 said: Currently 52F after a high of 54F. It will be interesting to see how quickly (or slowly) temps drop this evening/later tonight. So far here, 7 degrees in 3 hours, or 53 to 46. Wonder if it will be consistent enough to get it to 39 a little after 11 pm. If so, I'll get the snow lamp out around 11:30 and have a look around (that is, if I'm awake, lol). It's been pretty windy here for the last 2 hours also! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted December 11, 2019 Share Posted December 11, 2019 Just to be clear, a snow lamp is any light (fixed or mobile) that is bright enough and/or focused enough to allow the discerning (weenie) eye to spot a single small snowflake in the wee hours of the morning. Similarly, this light allows the trained eye to observe snow beginning to mix in with rain at night. Also works for seeing how hard it is snowing if it's not yet moderate to heavy. I also would guess that most everyone in here has some version of a snow lamp. Wow it went down 2 degrees while I was typing that. 44F here now. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted December 11, 2019 Share Posted December 11, 2019 43F and wind has picked up a bit. (taking out trash) Lol at Kamu for his detailed description of a snow lamp. Us old timers take it for granted everyone knows what it is but in reality new folks may have no clue. It's crucial and I would be pissed if the snow lamp burned out just before a big event. I have a backup but it's not as vivid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted December 11, 2019 Share Posted December 11, 2019 1 minute ago, Birds~69 said: 43F and wind has picked up a bit. (taking out trash) Lol at Kamu for his detailed description of a snow lamp. Us old timers take it for granted everyone knows what it is but in reality new folks may have no clue. It's crucial and I would be pissed if the snow lamp burned out just before a big event. I have a backup but it's not as vivid. That's what I'm talkin about, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowwors2 Posted December 11, 2019 Share Posted December 11, 2019 34° steady light snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted December 11, 2019 Share Posted December 11, 2019 38 minutes ago, KamuSnow said: Just to be clear, a snow lamp is any light (fixed or mobile) that is bright enough and/or focused enough to allow the discerning (weenie) eye to spot a single small snowflake in the wee hours of the morning. Similarly, this light allows the trained eye to observe snow beginning to mix in with rain at night. Also works for seeing how hard it is snowing if it's not yet moderate to heavy. I also would guess that most everyone in here has some version of a snow lamp. Wow it went down 2 degrees while I was typing that. 44F here now. Few things in my younger years brought more fury then checking the snow lamp and seeing nothing but lil meteor streaks, in other words the change to rain had occured Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted December 11, 2019 Share Posted December 11, 2019 Seeing reports the change to snow has occurred rather quickly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Delaware Valley Weather Posted December 11, 2019 Share Posted December 11, 2019 40 and light rain in Exton. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted December 11, 2019 Share Posted December 11, 2019 46 minutes ago, snowwors2 said: 34° steady light snow Congrats! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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