wxdude64 Posted December 10, 2019 Share Posted December 10, 2019 Personally, a nice 1-3/2-4 across majority of the forum would be nice........ 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 10, 2019 Share Posted December 10, 2019 I posted yesterday that guidance is converging on .2 - .4 qpf as snow through most of the region with some .6 lollies. That didn't change today. With the obvious temp issues but good timing in the middle of the night it's still perfectly reasonable to think 1-2" in everyone's yard west of 95 and outside of the heat island areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdude64 Posted December 10, 2019 Share Posted December 10, 2019 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: I posted yesterday that guidance is converging on .2 - .4 qpf as snow through most of the region with some .6 lollies. That didn't change today. With the obvious temp issues but good timing in the middle of the night it's still perfectly reasonable to think 1-2" in everyone's yard west of 95 and outside of the heat island areas. So you are saying it'll looking something like this.... IAD: 2.8 BWI: 2.2 RIC: 1.8 DCA 0.0 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 10, 2019 Share Posted December 10, 2019 So pretty much our subforum will get a slushy coating to PSU 4” jackpot. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 10, 2019 Share Posted December 10, 2019 4 minutes ago, wxdude64 said: So you are saying it'll looking something like this.... IAD: 2.8 BWI: 2.2 RIC: 1.8 DCA 0.0 Nailed it 3 minutes ago, mappy said: So pretty much our subforum will get a slushy coating to PSU 4” jackpot. Yep, but don't tell psu i have a flatbed trailer and a front loader hitched up to my truck so i can sneak up there and steal all his snow before he wakes up. There will be a 6" lollie in Rockville no matter what. 2 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 10, 2019 Share Posted December 10, 2019 We all know it isn't going to snow come on guys learn your climo. These things never work out when cold is chasing precip. Do your homework 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 10, 2019 Share Posted December 10, 2019 8 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Yep, but don't tell psu i have a flatbed trailer and a front loader hitched up to my truck so i can sneak up there and steal all his snow before he wakes up. There will be a 6" lollie in Rockville no matter what. I won’t, hopefully he skips these posts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 10, 2019 Share Posted December 10, 2019 22 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said: We all know it isn't going to snow come on guys learn your climo. These things never work out when cold is chasing precip. Do your homework We will know tomorrow. Wednesday at the latest. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 10, 2019 Share Posted December 10, 2019 17 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: We will know tomorrow. Wednesday at the latest. It's no doubt going to be the biggest event of the year. Yuuuuge 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 10, 2019 Share Posted December 10, 2019 18z eps 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted December 10, 2019 Share Posted December 10, 2019 NWS a little more robust on thoughts in their latest updates further east. Think a bit less west. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 10, 2019 Share Posted December 10, 2019 3 minutes ago, midatlanticweather said: NWS a little more robust on thoughts in their latest updates: How can we both have the same time stamp but different images??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted December 10, 2019 Share Posted December 10, 2019 39 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: PSU sleeps soundly as Bob cleans out the yard and driveway down to the pavement. No flake left behind. He'll be reaped in no time 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted December 10, 2019 Share Posted December 10, 2019 How can we both have the same time stamp but different images???Your image is most likely the correct image and the other was issued before, but they did a correction with the image. There should be a range. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted December 10, 2019 Share Posted December 10, 2019 8 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: How can we both have the same time stamp but different images??? There's a point and range tab up top. He's on the range . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 10, 2019 Share Posted December 10, 2019 The NAM looks to be making its way back. LOL, what a model 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 10, 2019 Share Posted December 10, 2019 3 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: The NAM looks to be making its way back. LOL, what a model 3k no doubt is moving towards the ace mesos... HDRPS & RGEM are locked 1 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted December 10, 2019 Share Posted December 10, 2019 11 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: 3k no doubt is moving towards the ace mesos... HDRPS & RGEM are locked Is there an NCEP analog to the HRDPS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PDIII Posted December 10, 2019 Share Posted December 10, 2019 Nice! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 10, 2019 Share Posted December 10, 2019 2 minutes ago, PDIII said: Nice! That’s an 18z image Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 10, 2019 Share Posted December 10, 2019 Icon with the best run in days. Moving towards the rgem/hrdps as well... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted December 10, 2019 Share Posted December 10, 2019 RGEM is a mauling. We love dark dark blue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 10, 2019 Share Posted December 10, 2019 I really like seeing the heavy bands showing up as leads close. There's good jet support and lift. Need that to coincide with the best moisture. Like this panel... 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted December 10, 2019 Share Posted December 10, 2019 Looking prime for a good ole Rockville to Clarksville jackpot! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted December 10, 2019 Share Posted December 10, 2019 1-2” with lolli’s to 4” N/W of the fall line are looking increasingly likely. Need the mesos to hold serve into 12z tomorrow to really cement the idea. It’s a still a tight rope setup with where the thermal gradient is aligned and best H7 frontogenesis. Right now, it looks like a nice start of the season event shaping up. At this rate, @Bob Chill might only need to steal 1/3 of PSU’s snow 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 10, 2019 Share Posted December 10, 2019 26 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Rgem has a nice band along and west of 95 Ninjd again Yesh please... here is the 00z run RGEM since the 18z was posted last page 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 10, 2019 Share Posted December 10, 2019 I'll take the 2-4 on the 00z GFS please I81 corridor does very well... 4 to 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted December 10, 2019 Share Posted December 10, 2019 Gfs with a bump as well. Mostly confined to two bands...one NW of the cities and one SE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 10, 2019 Share Posted December 10, 2019 Gfs juiced up and shows more of a banded structure like the mesos. Gfs likes SoMD for a nice band this run. I'm really liking the 0z suite. The heaviest stripes will keep moving around but bands of heavier qpf may make some happy weenies 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted December 10, 2019 Share Posted December 10, 2019 Here's a good look at what I'm referencing. Below is the 700mb Frontogenesis forecast at 10z Wedesday (Sounding avg for Central MD below that). When you have prime mid-level forcing, this generates a better looking precip field, as well as better Omega within the best snow growth region. This will help crystal structures and give the best chance for accumulating snow. A lack of forcing will play a detriment to snow accumulation since the lower boundary layer will be marginal, especially east of the fall line. Need this depiction to hold for another few runs before I would get excited. This is a tight rope walker, but the chance is there for a nice little event. 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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