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December 11 Frontal Wave Snow Event


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I posted yesterday that guidance is converging on .2 - .4 qpf as snow through most of the region with some .6 lollies. That didn't change today. With the obvious temp issues but good timing in the middle of the night it's still perfectly reasonable to think 1-2" in everyone's yard west of 95 and outside of the heat island areas. 

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1 minute ago, Bob Chill said:

I posted yesterday that guidance is converging on .2 - .4 qpf as snow through most of the region with some .6 lollies. That didn't change today. With the obvious temp issues but good timing in the middle of the night it's still perfectly reasonable to think 1-2" in everyone's yard west of 95 and outside of the heat island areas. 

So you are saying it'll looking something like this....

IAD: 2.8

BWI: 2.2

RIC: 1.8

DCA 0.0

 

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4 minutes ago, wxdude64 said:

So you are saying it'll looking something like this....

IAD: 2.8

BWI: 2.2

RIC: 1.8

DCA 0.0

 

Nailed it

3 minutes ago, mappy said:

So pretty much our subforum will get a slushy coating to PSU 4” jackpot. 

Yep, but don't tell psu i have a flatbed trailer and a front loader hitched up to my truck so i can sneak up there and steal all his snow before he wakes up. There will be a 6" lollie in Rockville no matter what. 

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8 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Yep, but don't tell psu i have a flatbed trailer and a front loader hitched up to my truck so i can sneak up there and steal all his snow before he wakes up. There will be a 6" lollie in Rockville no matter what. 

I won’t, hopefully he skips these posts 

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1-2” with lolli’s to 4” N/W of the fall line are looking increasingly likely. Need the mesos to hold serve into 12z tomorrow to really cement the idea. It’s a still a tight rope setup with where the thermal gradient is aligned and best H7 frontogenesis. Right now, it looks like a nice start of the season event shaping up. At this rate, @Bob Chill might only need to steal 1/3 of PSU’s snow

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Here's a good look at what I'm referencing. Below is the 700mb Frontogenesis forecast at 10z Wedesday (Sounding avg for Central MD below that). When you have prime mid-level forcing, this generates a better looking precip field, as well as better Omega within the best snow growth region. This will help crystal structures and give the best chance for accumulating snow. A lack of forcing will play a detriment to snow accumulation since the lower boundary layer will be marginal, especially east of the fall line. Need this depiction to hold for another few runs before I would get excited. This is a tight rope walker, but the chance is there for a nice little event. 

nam3km_temp_adv_fgen_700_neus_35.thumb.png.f26c77e908c4e1247f47c8b583d90b28.png

 

89208751_nam3km_2019121000_fh34_sounding_77.28W76.72W39.11N39_62N.thumb.png.4148e9a082639674a475437c09272b35.png

 

 

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