Scraff Posted December 9, 2019 Share Posted December 9, 2019 I’m just going to keep huggin the good ol GFS. Happy hours snow map still bringing 1-3”. 4” lollis for PSU, Mappy, etc. Edit: should have let the run finish. Lol. Thanks @C.A.P.E. We just got GooFus’d! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caviman2201 Posted December 9, 2019 Share Posted December 9, 2019 Love that the GFS just put a 6" lolli right on PSU's house. It knows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted December 9, 2019 Share Posted December 9, 2019 8 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: ^FWIW. Would make most in this region happy if half that verified. Wow! eta: There's something wrong with that output. Use depth maps ppl! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 9, 2019 Share Posted December 9, 2019 1 minute ago, Ji said: 3 minutes ago, caviman2201 said: Love that the GFS just put a 6" lolli right on PSU's house. It knows. This is not the gfs. It's the broken fv3. Gfs would never do this Old GFS only did this at hour 384. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted December 9, 2019 Share Posted December 9, 2019 Here's a more realistic version. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 9, 2019 Author Share Posted December 9, 2019 Something is majorly weird with the GFS and that 850mb dry layer that develops between 0z and 6z Wednesday. I don't see how that is consistent with 0.2-0.5" of liquid equivalent. Pivotal shows the same info as TT, so it's not that one is plotting bad data. Just bizarre. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 9, 2019 Share Posted December 9, 2019 3 minutes ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said: Here's a more realistic version. You just had to post that 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted December 9, 2019 Share Posted December 9, 2019 GFS may still be having boundary layer issues, too cold. Solution appears to be overdone. Siding conservative on this one. This type of setup with arctic air timing with precipitation along a front is not a favorable setup for the area. Drier and warmer solutions more likely to verify, though I still hold out hope for a dusting to an inch well N and W of 95. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 9, 2019 Share Posted December 9, 2019 29 minutes ago, Weather Will said: Washington Post Capital Weather Gang forecast. Kinda sparse if you ask me... but we shall see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted December 9, 2019 Share Posted December 9, 2019 1 minute ago, ers-wxman1 said: GFS may still be having boundary layer issues, too cold. Solution appears to be overdone. Siding conservative on this one. This type of setup with arctic air timing with precipitation along a front is not a favorable setup for the area. Drier and warmer solutions more likely to verify, though I still hold out hope for a dusting to an inch N and W of 95. You do know that if you go to the lower side here, you will be right 95% of the time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 9, 2019 Share Posted December 9, 2019 7 minutes ago, ers-wxman1 said: GFS may still be having boundary layer issues, too cold. Solution appears to be overdone. Siding conservative on this one. This type of setup with arctic air timing with precipitation along a front is not a favorable setup for the area. Drier and warmer solutions more likely to verify, though I still hold out hope for a dusting to an inch well N and W of 95. 18z RGEM is 2"-4"... so I dunno ETA: Moved the best snows SE compared to its 12z run and did look an inch drier in its accumulations... but still leaned toward the 18z GFS Also indicated some decent banding around 08z to 11z WED Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted December 9, 2019 Share Posted December 9, 2019 3 minutes ago, yoda said: 18z RGEM is 2"-4"... so I dunno Moved the best snows SE compared to its 12z run and did look an inch drier in its accumulations... but still leaned toward the 18z GFS Also indicated some decent banding around 08z to 11z Boundary layer temps, antecedent warm ground, rates, all dicey. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
soadforecaster Posted December 9, 2019 Share Posted December 9, 2019 17 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Something is majorly weird with the GFS and that 850mb dry layer that develops between 0z and 6z Wednesday. I don't see how that is consistent with 0.2-0.5" of liquid equivalent. Pivotal shows the same info as TT, so it's not that one is plotting bad data. Just bizarre. If you look almost every single model has that dry area around 850. not sure what that means, but im sure its not good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted December 9, 2019 Share Posted December 9, 2019 Conservative usually wins. We shall see. RGEM and GFS, EURO in the middle, then the NAM. December snow is bonus snow or the appetizer. Main course still to come... just don’t know yet whether it is prime rib or a peanut butter jelly sandwich. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 9, 2019 Author Share Posted December 9, 2019 2 minutes ago, soadforecaster said: If you look almost every single model has that dry area around 850. not sure what that means, but im sure its not good NAM doesn't. It's drier in terms of precip, but has a moister column below 850mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 9, 2019 Share Posted December 9, 2019 I'll take the 18z HRDPS please 4 to 6 right down i95 lane 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
soadforecaster Posted December 9, 2019 Share Posted December 9, 2019 i guess depends on location, but here is that dry level Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 9, 2019 Share Posted December 9, 2019 Decent discussion from Mount Holly- Tuesday night the surface cold front will be well off the coast with not much in the way of coverage initially expected. Late Tuesday night into very early Wednesday the 700/600 MB thermal gradient will begin to tighten as the shortwave approaches. Latest GFS and NAM FGEN fields are fairly impressive with lift increasing starting over Maryland and spreading northeast. The NAM and the other high res models are depicting this as precipitation spreading over the area rather rapidly Wednesday morning. The NAM is slightly further south with the strongest forcing for ascent compared to the GFS and ECMWF, but overall agreement is not too bad. The main concern will be precipitation type issues. Over the southern Poconos thermal profiles support all snow for the event, but the strongest FGEN signal remains just southeast of this area. The best forcing for ascent is usually towards the warm side of the FGEN band, which would favor limiting snowfall totals here. Towards the I-95 corridor the best chance of precipitation exists, but thermal profiles initially support rain. Both the NAM and GFS show initially rain changing over to a rain/snow mix and then finally all snow. NAM forecast soundings indicate slightly stronger 700/800 mb winds and implied WAA. A brief transition to sleet is indicated via the NAM, but the most likely scenario appears to be rain/snow to snow as max temperatures aloft on the NAM seem to warm compared to the GFS and ECMWF. The most likely snowfall totals across the area are about 1 to 2" with slightly higher totals over the northwestern zones. The change over to snow and subsequent totals will be highly sensitive to the thermal profile and QPF footprint though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 9, 2019 Share Posted December 9, 2019 9 minutes ago, yoda said: I'll take the 18z HRDPS please 4 to 6 right down i95 lane Also has snow almost to Va Beach. LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 9, 2019 Share Posted December 9, 2019 19 minutes ago, ers-wxman1 said: Boundary layer temps, antecedent warm ground, rates, all dicey. Good thing you pop in at these critical times to remind us all of the elements that often lead us to failure. 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 9, 2019 Share Posted December 9, 2019 HPC has stuck with the higher snow totals well north and west. And what do precip events and cold fronts usually end up being at game time? Still not sure what to think of this one. Think I’d have to lean toward drier trend continuing. Even the wettest models have trended consistently drier over the past 18 hours. Would be nice to see one come in wetter even if only by a little. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 9, 2019 Share Posted December 9, 2019 Jb is fully on board the gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 9, 2019 Author Share Posted December 9, 2019 3 minutes ago, soadforecaster said: i guess depends on location, but here is that dry level Yeah. I was looking at 3k NAM soundings around DC/Balt and it's pretty minimal and mostly at 900mb actually. The models account for precip evaporating/subliming during descent (I'm 99% sure...) so can't really explain it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 9, 2019 Author Share Posted December 9, 2019 5 minutes ago, Ji said: Jb is fully on board the gfs Show him the HRDPS...he'll switch. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 9, 2019 Share Posted December 9, 2019 9 minutes ago, Ji said: Jb is fully on board the gfs He is fully something 5 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 9, 2019 Share Posted December 9, 2019 Surprised no one posted the ukmet earlier. It was probably the best 12z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted December 9, 2019 Share Posted December 9, 2019 Doesn't the GFS have a cold bias now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 9, 2019 Author Share Posted December 9, 2019 5 minutes ago, osfan24 said: Doesn't the GFS have a cold bias now? Yes, but it’s most severe in the medium and long range. In the short range it’s minimal. But of course that’s an average across lots of space and time, so it could be wrong either way in any particular location and time. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted December 10, 2019 Share Posted December 10, 2019 18z EURO holds serve. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 10, 2019 Share Posted December 10, 2019 Just now, NorthArlington101 said: 18z EURO holds serve. The jackpot stripe is obscuring my yard so I can't tell how much I win by. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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