mappy Posted December 9, 2019 Share Posted December 9, 2019 14 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: As PSU said, it’s pretty clear what the trends are. its a pretty standard marginal event. temps will be at or above freezing depending on location. areas under heavier bands should get some stickage, until it lets up and everything melts. strung out wave won't provide much other than snowTV a slushy inch except for those with decent elevation. No one should be hoping for more than that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 9, 2019 Share Posted December 9, 2019 28 minutes ago, mappy said: its a pretty standard marginal event. temps will be at or above freezing depending on location. areas under heavier bands should get some stickage, until it lets up and everything melts. strung out wave won't provide much other than snowTV a slushy inch except for those with decent elevation. No one should be hoping for more than that. HRDPS is the 12z run to hug for us. Still sticking to what I said, such small variations in several discreet factors will make such a huge impact on this (marginal event as you said) that I won't feel confident in any solution until almost nowcast time. For now the consensus of a minor event favoring the typical climo areas seems reasonable to me. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 9, 2019 Share Posted December 9, 2019 8 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: HRDPS is the 12z run to hug for us. Still sticking to what I said, such small variations in several discreet factors will make such a huge impact on this (marginal event as you said) that I won't feel confident in any solution until almost nowcast time. For now the consensus of a minor event favoring the typical climo areas seems reasonable to me. Agreed. This is one of those where I wake up hoping its snowing, and has already snowed before dawn and stuck. Otherwise, my temps will never get there and I'll white rain most of it. You shouldn't have an issues of course, your extra 300 ft of elevation helps! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted December 9, 2019 Share Posted December 9, 2019 Euro looks just fine to me. Maybe 1-3? I’ll hug that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted December 9, 2019 Share Posted December 9, 2019 Euro maintains the Dusting to up to 3 for the favored areas. Better than 0z 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 9, 2019 Author Share Posted December 9, 2019 3 minutes ago, Scraff said: Euro looks just fine to me. Maybe 1-3? I’ll hug that. Yup. Smidge colder, 1-2F, than 0z and maybe a touch wetter. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted December 9, 2019 Share Posted December 9, 2019 Temps and rates are super meh-tastic on the EURO though. Might struggle to stay on the grass. edit: might be wrong on the temps department based on other, smarter comments. rates do look pretty cruddy, imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 9, 2019 Share Posted December 9, 2019 Euro a little quicker with the cold compared to 0z (I haven't looked at the 6z run). That can only help. QPF will still dance around but considering it's cold chasing precip, the faster the column gets right for snowfall the better off we are. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 9, 2019 Share Posted December 9, 2019 I can't see what my house gets on that euro map because there is a big 2 in the way. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 9, 2019 Share Posted December 9, 2019 12 minutes ago, Scraff said: Euro looks just fine to me. Maybe 1-3? I’ll hug that. works for me! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted December 9, 2019 Share Posted December 9, 2019 15 minutes ago, LP08 said: Euro maintains the Dusting to up to 3 for the favored areas. Better than 0z Euro is a great improvement! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted December 9, 2019 Share Posted December 9, 2019 What about surface temps for today and tomorrow? Seem to be lower today than expected and forecasted a notch below for tomorrow as well? Can!t hurt if that is the case. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 9, 2019 Share Posted December 9, 2019 Just now, Weather Will said: What about surface temps for today and tomorrow? Seem to be lower today than expected and forecasted a notch below for tomorrow as well? Can!t hurt if that is the case. Temps are going to be mild tomorrow. I expect lots of "its 60 and its supposed to snow?!?" posts. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted December 9, 2019 Share Posted December 9, 2019 7 minutes ago, mappy said: Temps are going to be mild tomorrow. I expect lots of "its 60 and its supposed to snow?!?" posts. But if my ground is cooled by todays rain will it still warm too much by the angle of the heat to melt all my snow? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 9, 2019 Share Posted December 9, 2019 1 minute ago, H2O said: But if my ground is cooled by todays rain will it still warm too much by the angle of the heat to melt all my snow? how many cars will be on the road at the time of snow falling and making contact with the ground? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MountainGeek Posted December 9, 2019 Share Posted December 9, 2019 1 hour ago, mappy said: how many cars will be on the road at the time of snow falling and making contact with the ground? Personally I hope all of the cars will be making contact with the ground.... I think we are both in a good spot to hopefully get an inch or so at minimum, models looking decent to achieve that bar. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
peribonca Posted December 9, 2019 Share Posted December 9, 2019 Nam 18z so far through 33h is holding a bit more energy back and bringing in the cold faster Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baltimorewx Posted December 9, 2019 Share Posted December 9, 2019 Just now, peribonca said: Nam 18z so far through 33h is holding a bit more energy back and bringing in the cold faster But wheres the precip? Lol...I guess things will blossom some but hardly anything thru 39 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baltimorewx Posted December 9, 2019 Share Posted December 9, 2019 NAM has about a 2 hour period of snow but man is it dry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 9, 2019 Share Posted December 9, 2019 LOL, couple more runs and NAM will be partly cloudy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 9, 2019 Share Posted December 9, 2019 Just now, WinterWxLuvr said: LOL, couple more runs and NAM will be partly cloudy A couple? 6 hours is more like it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baltimorewx Posted December 9, 2019 Share Posted December 9, 2019 The 3K is even worse....man, the NAMs not wet? What is the world coming to Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winter Wizard Posted December 9, 2019 Share Posted December 9, 2019 I don't buy the NAM verbatim (probably too dry), but it does show you how limited the window of opportunity there is for snow. Once that front moves through, dry air will rush in and shut off the precip pretty quickly from west to east. At this point, I think T-1 is a solid call for I-95 south and east. 1-3 possible in the climo favored areas with isolated higher depending on how strong the rates are. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 9, 2019 Share Posted December 9, 2019 The 3K is even worse....man, the NAMs not wet? What is the world coming toNams are usually dry...they are only super wet with big storms/coastals 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted December 9, 2019 Share Posted December 9, 2019 Red Flag; let’s see how the rest of 18z suite goes before throwing in the towel. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baltimorewx Posted December 9, 2019 Share Posted December 9, 2019 5 minutes ago, Ji said: 13 minutes ago, Baltimorewx said: The 3K is even worse....man, the NAMs not wet? What is the world coming to Nams are usually dry...they are only super wet with big storms/coastals Shouldnt they pick up on frontal wave synoptics though or no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted December 9, 2019 Share Posted December 9, 2019 35 minutes ago, Ji said: 43 minutes ago, Baltimorewx said: The 3K is even worse....man, the NAMs not wet? What is the world coming to Nams are usually dry...they are only super wet with big storms/coastals Yeah, they also have a tendency to have a few dry runs followed by a few wet runs before game time or vice versa. Seen it so many times. Edit: RGEM coming in dryer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 9, 2019 Share Posted December 9, 2019 1 hour ago, MountainGeek said: Personally I hope all of the cars will be making contact with the ground.... I think we are both in a good spot to hopefully get an inch or so at minimum, models looking decent to achieve that bar. Ha, yes! Just a little inside joke. A couple years ago some poster said they wished snow wasn’t happening on the weekend because too many cars = warm ground. Was funny 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted December 9, 2019 Share Posted December 9, 2019 Washington Post Capital Weather Gang forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 9, 2019 Share Posted December 9, 2019 ^FWIW. Would make most in this region happy if half that verified. 1 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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