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December 11 Frontal Wave Snow Event


WxUSAF
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2 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Winding down here now. Looks like about a half inch. Looks pretty out there.

Oddly, temps weren't an issue. Needed more qpf.

Any measurable is a win in my book. But with what some of the better models were throwing out even up to game time it was pretty much a fail. Not going to go back and check but it seemed that once the NAM's got into their range they did a decent job on this especially the 3K. 

I have thought about this before but I have to wonder if the models don't handle the typography well in our region in these type of events. In particular the down sloping off the mountains to our west that dry the lower levels.

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1 minute ago, showmethesnow said:

Any measurable is a win in my book. But with what some of the better models were throwing out even up to game time it was pretty much a fail. Not going to go back and check but it seemed that once the NAM's got into their range they did a decent job on this especially the 3K. 

I have thought about this before but I have to wonder if the models don't handle the typography well in our region in these type of events. In particular the down sloping off the mountains to our west that dry the lower levels.

Considering it was a minor event of short duration, and with it coming behind the front with CAA and tendency for drying, the guidance did pretty good in general. The one nitpick is temps- most guidance had temps here 34-35 while the snow was falling. Had me envisioning white rain. The temperature here dropped quickly behind the front though, and when the sleet/snow started falling, it was right at 32. Models did indicate a shallow warm nose aloft so the sleet at the beginning was expected.

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11 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Considering it was a minor event of short duration, and with it coming behind the front with CAA and tendency for drying, the guidance did pretty good in general. The one nitpick is temps- most guidance had temps here 34-35 while the snow was falling. Had me envisioning white rain. The temperature here dropped quickly behind the front though, and when the sleet/snow started falling, it was right at 32. Models did indicate a shallow warm nose aloft so the sleet at the beginning was expected.

I didn't think the issue would be the temps. Looking at the dry lower levels I had a feeling that we would see a better response then what we were seeing on some of the model output. My question was the amount of precip. WxWSAF brought this up with the soundings a couple of times and I had to agree with him. The look just didn't fit with the qpf the models were throwing out. I will be curious what the actual precip totals were post frontal (especially during and after the flip to frozen). Would be shocked if they came close to verifying and am actually expecting they were closer to 50% of what was advertised.

eta: Now my thoughts are in relation to what we are seeing west of the Bay. The models may very well verify down in your neck of the woods (eastern shore). I really wasn't focused down that way so I am not sure. After all this is a MBY sport. after all. :whistle:

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