December 11 Frontal Wave Snow Event

[H2O]

Dusting on some mulch and grass.  Cars coated. Solid car topper

[showmethesnow]

2 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Winding down here now. Looks like about a half inch. Looks pretty out there.

Oddly, temps weren't an issue. Needed more qpf.

Any measurable is a win in my book. But with what some of the better models were throwing out even up to game time it was pretty much a fail. Not going to go back and check but it seemed that once the NAM's got into their range they did a decent job on this especially the 3K. 

I have thought about this before but I have to wonder if the models don't handle the typography well in our region in these type of events. In particular the down sloping off the mountains to our west that dry the lower levels.

[CAPE]

1 minute ago, showmethesnow said:

Any measurable is a win in my book. But with what some of the better models were throwing out even up to game time it was pretty much a fail. Not going to go back and check but it seemed that once the NAM's got into their range they did a decent job on this especially the 3K. 

I have thought about this before but I have to wonder if the models don't handle the typography well in our region in these type of events. In particular the down sloping off the mountains to our west that dry the lower levels.

Considering it was a minor event of short duration, and with it coming behind the front with CAA and tendency for drying, the guidance did pretty good in general. The one nitpick is temps- most guidance had temps here 34-35 while the snow was falling. Had me envisioning white rain. The temperature here dropped quickly behind the front though, and when the sleet/snow started falling, it was right at 32. Models did indicate a shallow warm nose aloft so the sleet at the beginning was expected.

[JakkelWx]

Didn't expect to wake up to about an inch of snow OTG this morning, eyeballing it. I was expecting a dusting at most when I woke up, which I usually do three quarters before 6 AM

Edit: Unfortunately it's ending earlier than I expected though.

[showmethesnow]

11 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Considering it was a minor event of short duration, and with it coming behind the front with CAA and tendency for drying, the guidance did pretty good in general. The one nitpick is temps- most guidance had temps here 34-35 while the snow was falling. Had me envisioning white rain. The temperature here dropped quickly behind the front though, and when the sleet/snow started falling, it was right at 32. Models did indicate a shallow warm nose aloft so the sleet at the beginning was expected.

I didn't think the issue would be the temps. Looking at the dry lower levels I had a feeling that we would see a better response then what we were seeing on some of the model output. My question was the amount of precip. WxWSAF brought this up with the soundings a couple of times and I had to agree with him. The look just didn't fit with the qpf the models were throwing out. I will be curious what the actual precip totals were post frontal (especially during and after the flip to frozen). Would be shocked if they came close to verifying and am actually expecting they were closer to 50% of what was advertised.

eta: Now my thoughts are in relation to what we are seeing west of the Bay. The models may very well verify down in your neck of the woods (eastern shore). I really wasn't focused down that way so I am not sure. After all this is a MBY sport. after all. 

[WinterWxLuvr]

Basically zip here. Great event lol

[wawarriors4]

Solid cover on grass, trees and cars in Stafford. That’s a win, maybe 0.3” total.

[CAPE]

3 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

I didn't think the issue would be the temps. Looking at the dry lower levels I had a feeling that we would see a better response then what we were seeing on some of the model output. My question was the amount of precip. WxWSAF brought this up with the soundings a couple of times and I had to agree with him. The look just didn't fit with the qpf the models were throwing out. I will be curious what the actual precip totals were post frontal (especially during and after the flip to frozen). Would be shocked if they came close to verifying and am actually expecting they were closer to 50% of what was advertised.

eta: Now my thoughts are in relation to what we are seeing west of the Bay. The models may very well verify down in your neck of the woods (eastern shore).

Yeah those soundings were odd looking. Also the 2 precip maxes looked unusual.The eastern max seems to be pretty verifying well. Most guidance was pinpointing the best area of forcing over DE and esp NJ. Radar returns look impressive right now. Might be some legit 2"+ amounts there.

[mappy]

 

[osfan24]

First cartopper/measurable snow of the winter, if you can call it that. If you slant stick, maybe .1 lol. Pretty close to what I expected, though models may have still been too robust with the amount of precip that would fall as snow for our area. Like showme said, it was probably half of what they showed.

[mattie g]

Not sure I can even call it 0.25” in Burke. I’m not disappointed, but I am a wee bit surprised, as I did expect to see 1” or so on elevated surfaces.

[Scraff]

12 minutes ago, osfan24 said:

First cartopper/measurable snow of the winter, if you can call it that. If you slant stick, maybe .1 lol. Pretty close to what I expected, though models may have still been too robust with the amount of precip that would fall as snow for our area. Like showme said, it was probably half of what they showed.

 I’ll take our dusting with hope for better days ahead. 

[H2O]

.3" where i could get a good spot.  anything off the ground got a coating.  wish it was more but measurable snow is measurable

[GramaxRefugee]

0.2"

[Wonderdog]

Grass and shrubs lightly covered  32

[JakkelWx]

32/31 and 1'' 

[PrinceFrederickWx]

Measured 0.4" - picture is the Christmas tree in my back yard.

[SnowtoRain]

33 and about 0.5" on colder spots in Easton

[09-10 analogy]

A car top or two semi-caved in upper NW. A little paste on a leaf here and there. The quintessential "trace." 

[heavy_wx]

Dusting of snow on elevated surfaces here.

[aldie 22]

Got me some

[mappy]

53 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

.8"      More qpf would have made for a nice overnight hit but we take 

yeah, shame it ended up being a strung out mess. but snow is snow! my drive into work was beautiful. I love a good snowy landscape at twilight. 

[Prestige Worldwide]

.3 inches of snow in Lewes. Very picturesque- winning for this time of the year 

[mattie g]

Walk from L'Enfant to work across The Mall was wet. Not a speck of snow to be seen except for on the cars with MD and VA plates.

[MN Transplant]

0.4”

[CAPE]

1 hour ago, JakkelWx said:

32/31 and 1'' 

You got twice as much as me. Guess you got death banded.

[HighStakes]

Got about an inch.

[North Balti Zen]

Family reports some covering on cars but nothing really on ground so I will go with T at my location - @nw baltimore wx - what did you have? Could bump up to a .2 maybe.

[frd]

About a coating here.  

[Stormfly]

Very winterwonderland looking out there this AM!  Good .8" on the decking.  Pavement looks clear.  Seasonal accum broke the 1" barrier here with this one.  Wow that is such an achievement!  Compared to last year, with nary a flake in the whole month of December, it certainly is.

The ultrasonic sensor pack has rhimed over nicely as evidenced by errant output.  The heater fuse is open.  Gah!

Still, a two hour delay on public schools announced so early is ridiculous.  Roads, even the dirt ones around here, should be no worse than the AM before with rain and fallen leaves.