frd Posted December 10, 2019 Share Posted December 10, 2019 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: Climo beats individual runs of guidance in these situations most of the time. Very profound, I like, and it is true. A couple of weeks from now and this might have been a different outcome for us. What a crappy latitude I live at. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted December 10, 2019 Share Posted December 10, 2019 Getting even a coating after starting out in the 50s and a soaking rain the day before would be an accomplishment around here. Also, an inch on the maps is what falls through the air. Cut that in half for what might stick. Still would be nice to see a period of snow and its early December with another threat possible next week. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 10, 2019 Author Share Posted December 10, 2019 13 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Even up here the "average" of all guidance continues to chip away at snow totals. 24 hours ago consensus of CMC/GFS/Euro was for 4-6" up this way. I'm not saying that was ever believable but that is what they showed. Now its down to what we kind of always expected 2" in favored spots and less everywhere else. Climo beats individual runs of guidance in these situations most of the time. Euro Kuchera says congrats on your 3”. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted December 10, 2019 Share Posted December 10, 2019 32 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: Does 936-1212 still work? 202-589-1212 Initial announcement is advertising then obs then the forecast then an option closing. We are with a new company for couple of years now and doing this in a number of locations for small radio and phone and private contracting entities. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted December 10, 2019 Share Posted December 10, 2019 For those of you invested in this event, you might want to start looking to western MD...already some mPING reports in Garrett County of SN and the 0.5° CC on Sterling's radar is showing the melting layer creeping closer. Oakland airport is also down to 34°, which is several degrees lower than forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 10, 2019 Share Posted December 10, 2019 Just now, Eskimo Joe said: For those of you invested in this event, you might want to start looking to western MD...already some mPING reports in Garrett County of SN and the 0.5° CC on Sterling's radar is showing the melting layer creeping closer. Oakland airport is also down to 34°, which is several degrees lower than forecast. its snowing in Mississippi -- thats good for us, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralVaNATS Posted December 10, 2019 Share Posted December 10, 2019 It is also snowing on the summit in Snowshoe https://www.snowshoemtn.com/media-room/skidder-slope-live-camSent from my SM-N960U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted December 10, 2019 Share Posted December 10, 2019 5 minutes ago, mappy said: its snowing in Mississippi -- thats good for us, right? i was told KY or TN and the baro needs to be at least 30.50 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 10, 2019 Share Posted December 10, 2019 If you had a WWA issued before 4pm on your bingo card, congrats you won a WWA 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted December 10, 2019 Share Posted December 10, 2019 I had special weather statement on mine Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevWarReenactor Posted December 10, 2019 Share Posted December 10, 2019 My forecast for I-95 based on the latest model runs: Warm rain transitional to a colder rain before ending. Minor accumulations of the colder rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 10, 2019 Share Posted December 10, 2019 7 minutes ago, mappy said: If you had a WWA issued before 4pm on your bingo card, congrats you won a WWA WWA here, I'm still clinging to my initial expectation of T - 2" mostly on grass and mulch. I'd love to wake up to snow falling and a somewhat white landscape to get on the board Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 10, 2019 Share Posted December 10, 2019 3 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said: WWA here, I'm still clinging to my initial expectation of T - 2" mostly on grass and mulch. I'd love to wake up to snow falling and a somewhat white landscape to get on the board Same. 1" is my bar, anything more is a bonus. if it ends up being less, oh well. On to next week! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 10, 2019 Share Posted December 10, 2019 URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 228 PM EST Tue Dec 10 2019 MDZ004>006-503-505-507-VAZ505-506-110330- /O.NEW.KLWX.WW.Y.0031.191211T0700Z-191211T1300Z/ Frederick MD-Carroll-Northern Baltimore-Northwest Montgomery- Northwest Howard-Northwest Harford-Western Loudoun- Eastern Loudoun- 228 PM EST Tue Dec 10 2019 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EST WEDNESDAY... * WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations 1 to 2 inches are expected, with isolated totals of 3 inches possible for elevations above 1000 feet. * WHERE...Portions of north-central Maryland and northern Virginia. * WHEN...From 2 AM to 8 AM EST Wednesday. * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous conditions could impact the Wednesday morning commute. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Rain showers are expected to mix with and change to snow after midnight. While most accumulations will be confined to elevated surfaces, brief and localized heavier periods of snow could result in accumulation even on paved surfaces. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Slow down and use caution while traveling. When venturing outside, watch your first few steps taken on steps, sidewalks, and driveways, which could be icy and slippery, increasing your risk of a fall and injury. && Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 10, 2019 Share Posted December 10, 2019 Updated SWS for the DC metro and i95 weenies Special Weather Statement National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 201 PM EST Tue Dec 10 2019 DCZ001-MDZ011-013-014-016-504-506-508-VAZ052>055-110100- District of Columbia-Southern Baltimore-Prince Georges- Anne Arundel-Charles-Central and Southeast Montgomery- Central and Southeast Howard-Southeast Harford- Prince William/Manassas/Manassas Park-Fairfax- Arlington/Falls Church/Alexandria-Stafford- Including the cities of Washington, Baltimore, Bowie, Suitland-Silver Hill, Clinton, College Park, Greenbelt, Laurel, Camp Springs, Glen Burnie, Annapolis, Severn, South Gate, Severna Park, Arnold, Odenton, St. Charles, Waldorf, Bethesda, Rockville, Gaithersburg, Silver Spring, Columbia, Ellicott City, Aberdeen, Dale City, Manassas, Woodbridge, Lake Ridge, Montclair, Reston, Herndon, Annandale, Centreville, Chantilly, McLean, Franconia, Arlington, Alexandria, Falls Church, and Falmouth 201 PM EST Tue Dec 10 2019 ...POTENTIAL WINTER COMMUTING HAZARD FOR THE BALTIMORE MD/ WASHINGTON DC METRO AREAS WEDNESDAY MORNING... There is a potential for hazardous commuting conditions for the Wednesday morning commute. A period of accumulating snow is POSSIBLE Wednesday morning across the Baltimore MD/Washington DC metro areas, with up to an inch of snow accumulation possible on area roads, with the highest chances north and west of Interstate 95. If this threat does materialize during the Wednesday morning rush-hour, many roads could quickly turn slippery and visibility may be reduced. This could lead to dangerous traveling conditions, multiple accidents, and extensive delays. If commuting Wednesday morning, be aware of the POSSIBILITY of significant travel disruptions. Plan ahead by allowing for extra travel time, and consider using public transportation and telework options. Stay tuned for updates on this potential winter weather episode. $$ DHOF/CJL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 10, 2019 Share Posted December 10, 2019 Just read the WWA for out here. Going on record that I don’t think there’s any way anywhere here gets 3-4” Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 10, 2019 Share Posted December 10, 2019 Snowing at Deep Creek now. Looks like the front is crossing through Cumberland. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted December 10, 2019 Share Posted December 10, 2019 After a very slow but steady temp rise from this morning...finally seeing a steady drop now. Lost 2 degrees in the past 30 min. Got a ways to go...currently 51 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 10, 2019 Share Posted December 10, 2019 7 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Just read the WWA for out here. Going on record that I don’t think there’s any way anywhere here gets 3-4” I am just hoping to see some splatty wet flakes on the windshield driving to work tomorrow morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 10, 2019 Share Posted December 10, 2019 18z 3Km NAM has the Parrs Ridge bullseye. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 10, 2019 Share Posted December 10, 2019 1 minute ago, C.A.P.E. said: 18z 3Km NAM has the Parrs Ridge bullseye. Solid run if your expectations were in line Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 10, 2019 Share Posted December 10, 2019 Yup -- Id take that without issue 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 10, 2019 Share Posted December 10, 2019 10 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: 18z 3Km NAM has the Parrs Ridge bullseye. Ehh the jack is about 2.5 miles nw of my house there. I toss. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 10, 2019 Share Posted December 10, 2019 Snowing at Deep Creek now. Looks like the front is crossing through Cumberland. It snows at deep creek in august 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 10, 2019 Share Posted December 10, 2019 Solid run if your expectations were in lineThat's how you get a Loudoun delay thanks to w Loudoun 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted December 10, 2019 Share Posted December 10, 2019 I'm gonna pull the good ol' weenie excuse of saying that both the 12k and 3k initiated really poorly with respect to how much precip is on the actual radar. Completely missed everything in Tennessee, Arkansas, and Kentucky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 10, 2019 Author Share Posted December 10, 2019 3” for @psuhoffman and 0 for DCA. That about covers it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 10, 2019 Share Posted December 10, 2019 15 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said: Solid run if your expectations were in line So you're saying the HRDERPS might be off a little? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 10, 2019 Share Posted December 10, 2019 20 hours ago, mappy said: So pretty much our subforum will get a slushy coating to PSU 4” jackpot. sorry, 3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 10, 2019 Share Posted December 10, 2019 2 minutes ago, stormtracker said: So you're saying the HRDERPS might be off a little? It's within the margin of error +/- 10" 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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