December 11 Frontal Wave Snow Event

[yoda]

2 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Fairfax hasn't closed yet?  They're pushing it I see...

Usually Prince William or Fauquier closes first

 

[WxUSAF]

Canadian models are suggesting 1 primary frontogen band along I-95 more or less.  American suite and Euro suggest 2, one NW and one SE of I-95.  

[mappy]

14 minutes ago, Baltimorewx said:

I guess since the criteria is so low during rush hour but i would be pretty surprised if metro/95 areas saw any pavement accum

LWX has made it clear in the past that WWA are issued often during commutes, especially morning ones, even if the resulting snow is only an inch. Like EJ said, its just to make people aware of the weather because there have been times in the past where low accumulating snow events has caused havoc on the roads. 

[nw baltimore wx]

20 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

That still seems pretty low at this point, but I suppose they're waiting until the 12z suite is complete before raising any alarms.  Given the rush hour impacts, I imagine this is certainly worth a WWA for the entire LWX region.  

 

17 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

It's a Potential Hazard Commuting Statement which is part of the NWS initiative to highlight weather that would have a particular impact on commutes in urban areas.  It's a result of the Jan 27, 2011 and Jan 20, 2016 events which royally jacked the roads up and people wrongfully blamed NWS for because we can't understand that it sometimes snows in the winter.

Even without accumulating snow, with temperatures closing in on freezing tomorrow morning, I'd bet on the WWA.

[Baltimorewx]

4 minutes ago, mappy said:

LWX has made it clear in the past that WWA are issued often during commutes, especially morning ones, even if the resulting snow is only an inch. Like EJ said, its just to make people aware of the weather because there have been times in the past where low accumulating snow events has caused havoc on the roads. 

I understand that, Im just saying, I would be surprised if there were issues on the roads

[RickinBaltimore]

8 minutes ago, Baltimorewx said:

I understand that, Im just saying, I would be surprised if there were issues on the roads

Is there snow falling? Is there a THREAT of snow falling? There's going to be issues.

[yoda]

9 minutes ago, Baltimorewx said:

I understand that, Im just saying, I would be surprised if there were issues on the roads

A few years ago, it was snowing.  A dusting was expected.  Accidents occurred and there were 30 mile backups on the beltway.  For a DUSTING.  Snow always causes problems here even if it doesn't accumulate on the main roads

[Bob Chill]

1 minute ago, UIWWildthing said:

Is there snow falling? Is there a THREAT of snow falling? There's going to be issues.

Yea, last time I checked the NWS mission is to make sure there are no surprises when it comes to hazardous weather. 

[mappy]

12 minutes ago, Baltimorewx said:

I understand that, Im just saying, I would be surprised if there were issues on the roads

there will be issues on the roads. 

[yoda]

What will probably happen is that WWA's will be issued for the i81 corridor to the BR in  the afternoon package... and then WWA for the metro's in the late evening package or early morning package

[WinterWxLuvr]

Just now, yoda said:

A few years ago, it was snowing.  A dusting was expected.  Accidents occurred and there were 30 mile backups on the beltway.  For a DUSTING.  Snow always causes problems here even if it doesn't accumulate on the main roads

So how does a WWA help that? People can either drive or they can’t. A WWA isn’t going to keep people from driving to work if they have to get there.

Seems more in line with this whole nanny state thing IMO. You know, like when people have to have signs that say don’t crawl over the fence into the polar bear pen to get yourself a cool selfie.

[yoda]

1 minute ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

So how does a WWA help that? People can either drive or they can’t. A WWA isn’t going to keep people from driving to work if they have to get there.

Seems more in line with this whole nanny state thing IMO. You know, like when people have to have signs that say don’t crawl over the fence into the polar bear pen to get yourself a cool selfie.

I was more pointing out that driving around here when its snowing is a nightmare... with or without a WWA.  People still speed or drive super slow and its like OMG SNOWERZ and all of a sudden people can't drive correctly

[Eskimo Joe]

5 minutes ago, yoda said:

A few years ago, it was snowing.  A dusting was expected.  Accidents occurred and there were 30 mile backups on the beltway.  For a DUSTING.  Snow always causes problems here even if it doesn't accumulate on the main roads

The key difference was the road temperatures at the time.  When you start with roads below 32° and rush hour, the snow accumulates, the tires melt it, then it re-freezes in black ice.  It's been documented across the country.  This time we have warm roads so I don't see a problem, but $20 say we get a cover-your-a$$ WWA around 4:00 pm.

[CAPE]

2 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

So how does a WWA help that? People can either drive or they can’t. A WWA isn’t going to keep people from driving to work if they have to get there.

Seems more in line with this whole nanny state thing IMO. You know, like when people have to have signs that say don’t crawl over the fence into the polar bear pen to get yourself a cool selfie.

People who cannot drive in snow need to be warned that snow is imminent, so they can prepare for driving in the snow, which they cannot do.

[WEATHER53]

I think the 30% is for roadway accumulation including main roads and Beltway.  Models have shown their wide variety of outcomes, never honing in on one, so now it’s pretty much radar, 850s, water vapor and surface temp and dp.

[WEATHER53]

1 minute ago, C.A.P.E. said:

People who cannot drive in snow need to be warned that snow is imminent, so they can prepare for driving in the snow, which they cannot do.

It is good to have advanced notice of that which may panic thee.

can we also maybe go back to good ole days where we don’t drive with brights on and don’t stop and let people out in the travel lanes?

[mappy]

the weather will still do its thing with or without advisories, watches or warnings. 

[aldie 22]

Do you ever wonder if the most cocky and judgmental people about driving are actually the worst drivers?

[high risk]

11 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

The key difference was the road temperatures at the time.  When you start with roads below 32° and rush hour, the snow accumulates, the tires melt it, then it re-freezes in black ice.  It's been documented across the country.  This time we have warm roads so I don't see a problem, but $20 say we get a cover-your-a$$ WWA around 4:00 pm.

         THIS.     We've had many instances over the years with temperature well below freezing leading up to an event, and even a small amount of snow turns the roads into a disaster.    Tonight's event will feature temps well above freezing slowly falling to maybe around freezing.      Any place that gets under a significant band could certainly see some slick spots, but it's hard to imagine a scenario with widespread travel problems (until you get further north and northwest from the 95 corridor).

[mattie g]

I might drive in tomorrow morning, just to see the carnage.

I'm feeling fairly confident that we see 1" or so on elevated surfaces in my area of east-central Fairfax County, but not so confident of accumulation on roads and sidewalks. Totally fine though. Just getting on the board right now will work for me, unless I see deck pics of 4" of marshmallow, in which case I'll be pissed.

[Eskimo Joe]

Just now, high risk said:

         THIS.     We've had many instances over the years with temperature well below freezing leading up to an event, and even a small amount of snow turns the roads into a disaster.    Tonight's event will feature temps well above freezing slowly falling to maybe around freezing.      Any place that gets under a significant band could certainly see some slick spots, but it's hard to imagine a scenario with widespread travel problems (until you get further north and northwest from the 95 corridor).

We discuss these events every year at the COG and OPM meetings.  It's the number one event to cripple an area.  Some weak sauce that clipper or fropa that's in a cold airmass with high ratio snow that just overperforms by like an inch or two.

[Scraff]

Looking forward to the most important Euro run of the winter. Best of luck everyone. Hope your weenie dreams come true. 

 

Edit: Looks like I’ll do my best to slant stick 1-2” and like it. 

Edit Edit. 1-2 flakes. Funny. Flakes autocorrected from flames. Might have been more accurate.

[WEATHER53]

30 minutes ago, high risk said:

         THIS.     We've had many instances over the years with temperature well below freezing leading up to an event, and even a small amount of snow turns the roads into a disaster.    Tonight's event will feature temps well above freezing slowly falling to maybe around freezing.      Any place that gets under a significant band could certainly see some slick spots, but it's hard to imagine a scenario with widespread travel problems (until you get further north and northwest from the 95 corridor).

Worst thing possible is about 0.5” on a cold road  because tires smash it down, moisture extracted and instantly ice.

Get over an inch and then you have enough volume to keep it crunchy and not sheer ice.

 

[CAPE]

12z Euro is a tad underwhelming. Not too bad for NW folks, but looks like mostly white rain on the coastal plain.

 

[nw baltimore wx]

41 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said:

can we also maybe go back to good ole days where we don’t drive with brights on and don’t stop and let people out in the travel lanes?

And the now defunct Traveler's Advisory.

[CAPE]

Just now, nw baltimore wx said:

And the now defunct Traveler's Advisory.

Does 936-1212 still work?

[nw baltimore wx]

1 minute ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Does 936-1212 still work?

410 ... does not.

BUT!  301... DOES!

[psuhoffman]

2 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

12z Euro is a tad underwhelming. Not too bad for NW folks, but looks like mostly white rain on the coastal plain.

Even up here the "average" of all guidance continues to chip away at snow totals.  24 hours ago consensus of CMC/GFS/Euro was for 4-6" up this way.  I'm not saying that was ever believable but that is what they showed.  Now its down to what we kind of always expected 2" in favored spots and less everywhere else.  Climo beats individual runs of guidance in these situations most of the time. 

[CAPE]

Not seeing the dynamics required on the Euro for the lower elevations to overcome temps in the mid 30s.

[Weather Will]

Yup.  Take 1-2 inches NW of town, with White Rain inside the Beltways, near 95 and SE.  That is the upside potential of this event (not a storm).