nw baltimore wx Posted December 10, 2019 Share Posted December 10, 2019 Just now, showmethesnow said: They are! You meant what I corrected, right? 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 10, 2019 Share Posted December 10, 2019 Please stop posting the hrdrps 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 10, 2019 Share Posted December 10, 2019 Just now, showmethesnow said: They are? 'nt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted December 10, 2019 Share Posted December 10, 2019 5 minutes ago, PDIII said: Mesoscale Models are starting to converge on a 5-10 inch event across the 95 corridor Check out the 06z HRRR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted December 10, 2019 Share Posted December 10, 2019 6z GFS also looks a lot like the Euro and NAM. I'd highly advise people to lay off the HDERPS or you will be having a Ji-like meltdown come tomorrow. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted December 10, 2019 Share Posted December 10, 2019 18 minutes ago, PDIII said: Mesoscale Models are starting to converge on a 5-10 inch event across the 95 corridor You mean one model that always over does it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 10, 2019 Share Posted December 10, 2019 43 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said: To my untrained instincts the further SE the jack zone gets means the cold is lagging in its chase of the precip. I'm sure it's a banding thing as well but just sayin. Buyer beware Looks to me like the cold is in place as the last piece of energy rides up. Front looks to lie in the SE parts of the region right along the coast- perhaps this is part of the reason we are seeing some guidance shifting the heavier snow chances towards DE and NJ. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 10, 2019 Share Posted December 10, 2019 Just now, C.A.P.E. said: Looks to me like the cold is in place as the last piece of energy rides up. Front looks to lie in the SE parts of the region right along the coast- perhaps this is part of the reason we are seeing some guidance shifting the heavier snow chances towards DE and NJ. The gefs has been targeting further east consistently and it’s something I’ve noted as I’m seeing everything else slowly adjust towards it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted December 10, 2019 Share Posted December 10, 2019 1 minute ago, C.A.P.E. said: Looks to me like the cold is in place as the last piece of energy rides up. Front looks to lie in the SE parts of the region right along the coast- perhaps this is part of the reason we are seeing some guidance shifting the heavier snow chances towards DE and NJ. This is going sound weenie'ish and not meant to sound my backyard'ish, but if there's leftover energy running up the front tomorrow morning, I'd bet it's west of where it's depicted now. IMO, it's rare that cold air intrudes this area as fast as models depict. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 10, 2019 Share Posted December 10, 2019 35 minutes ago, nw baltimore wx said: This is going sound weenie'ish and not meant to sound my backyard'ish, but if there's leftover energy running up the front tomorrow morning, I'd bet it's west of where it's depicted now. IMO, it's rare that cold air intrudes this area as fast as models depict. At the risk of sounding weenie-ish myself, I like seeing the guidance depicting the heavy snow bands just to my east. Its a tricky set up for sure, and one I think is truly anafrontal, as it seems like the front will be through as the final impulse moves in and precip will be falling into cold air- although right at the surface it will be a bit warmish to start. It didn't always look like this would be the case(precip behind the cold front), but it seems looking at latest guidance it is evolving that way. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 10, 2019 Share Posted December 10, 2019 1 hour ago, PDIII said: Mesoscale Models are starting to converge on a 5-10 inch event across the 95 corridor WSW shall be hoisted by 3pm! 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 10, 2019 Share Posted December 10, 2019 14 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: At the risk of sounding weenie-ish myself, I like seeing the guidance depicting the heavy snow bands just to my east. Its a tricky set up for sure, and one I think is truly anafrontal, as it seems like the front will be through as the final impulse moves in and precip will be falling into cold air- although right at the surface it will be a bit warmish to start. It didn't always look like this would be the case, but it seems looking at latest guidance it is evolving that way. If it comes down heavy enough, column cools and we are in business. Of course, we know how these things work out. Runs today will get wetter into the afternoon Everyone will be hugging the HRRR around 8pm tonight as it shows some heavy blues over the area 1-3am Reality: sparse precip, temps never get to freezing, usual places get 1-2" 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 10, 2019 Share Posted December 10, 2019 Just now, mappy said: If it comes down heavy enough, column cools and we are in business. Of course, we know how these things work out. Runs today will get wetter into the afternoon Everyone will be hugging the HRRR around 8pm tonight as it shows some heavy blues over the area 1-3am Reality: sparse precip, temps never get to freezing, usual places get 1-2" Probably. My gut says there will be 2 maximas for snow potential- the usual places NW of the cities, and another along the coast- probably east of me. In between, it might end up being more spotty. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 10, 2019 Share Posted December 10, 2019 3 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: Probably. My gut says there will be 2 maximas for snow potential- the usual places NW of the cities, and another along the coast- probably east of me. In between, it might end up being more spotty. I think thats a good forecast. I'm going for about 1" IMBY, but could see it being less than that. NAM being so dry so close to the event gives me pause. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted December 10, 2019 Share Posted December 10, 2019 3 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: Probably. My gut says there will be 2 maximas for snow potential- the usual places NW of the cities, and another along the coast- probably east of me. In between, it might end up being more spotty. I'm hanging my hat on the area that has the front just to its east. That 5-10 mile stripe just to the west of that is where it will be best due to lifting and dynamics. P sure the mets and Wes have always said that where subsidence from the cold high and moisture being pushed up over that front is where the best rates happen. Like squeezing a sponge. edit to say that what I just described is really bad technically but reduced into laymans terms. Or as i call it: dumbed down for the masses and those masses are one(me) 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
heavy_wx Posted December 10, 2019 Share Posted December 10, 2019 Classic looking frontal circulation for this setup. The temperature gradient associated with the SW-NE oriented front strengthens as the boundary moves eastward, creating a thermally direct mesoscale circulation about the front, with warm air on the SE side of the boundary rising and sloping westward with height. This circulation is associated with the right entrance region of a jet streak that also strengthens with time as the thermal gradient intensifies. The frontal circulation can be seen on forecast cross-sections normal to the orientation of the boundary, where enhanced frontogenesis slopes westward with height. Additionally, there is some relatively low stability air above the frontal surface. In the cross section below, you can see the small closed contour of 320-K theta_e between -12 C and -18 C, indicating convective instability within the dendritic growth zone. This environment would be very favorable for ice crystal generation and growth. This cross section also highlights the marginal boundary layer temperatures for this event (typical for these anafrontal precip setups), where the 0-C contour extends above the frontal surface to around 700-mb. The above freezing temperatures will limit the period of snowfall to a narrow window of favorable frontal dynamics and sub-freezing temperature profiles. Right now, it's hard to say how long this window will be. Finally, you can also see the advection of low-level dry air on the cold side of the front which may lead to more sublimation of ice particles and less snowfall at the surface, especially during the tail end of the precip. It should be an interesting event to watch, and perhaps I will finally see some snowflakes this season! 17 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted December 10, 2019 Share Posted December 10, 2019 @heavy_wx just showed what i was saying but with pretty pictures. He went full nerd tho. Thanks, heavy!!! great stuff 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 10, 2019 Share Posted December 10, 2019 8 minutes ago, H2O said: @heavy_wx just showed what i was saying but with pretty pictures. He went full nerd tho. Thanks, heavy!!! great stuff why couldn't you do that? huh? geez 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted December 10, 2019 Share Posted December 10, 2019 4 minutes ago, mappy said: why couldn't you do that? huh? geez i tried to google "nerd snow charts" and got this. Coke snowman 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted December 10, 2019 Share Posted December 10, 2019 NWS going with 1-2 west of 95, lollipop 3” amounts in the higher elevations. Think this is spot on. Everyone hanging their hat on the HERPDYDERP is in for severe disappointment when they get 1/3 of what’s being depicted by it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 10, 2019 Share Posted December 10, 2019 1 minute ago, H2O said: i tried to google "nerd snow charts" and got this. Coke snowman i wish i had seen that at the walmart i go to, would have bought it just for the lols. also, we should probably stop bantering in this thread, sets a bad example 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted December 10, 2019 Share Posted December 10, 2019 12z HRRR went inverse-HDRPSRDSRSD. 0.0" along the 95 corridor and not much better elsewhere. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
peribonca Posted December 10, 2019 Share Posted December 10, 2019 Radar shows lots of gulf moisture flowing into Texas but boy is it ever hitting a wall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PivotPoint Posted December 10, 2019 Share Posted December 10, 2019 13 minutes ago, MN Transplant said: 12z HRRR went inverse-HDRPSRDSRSD. 0.0" along the 95 corridor and not much better elsewhere. These type of setups rarely break in our favor. They always look more robust 2-3 days in advance and then evaporate inside 24 hours. I think 95 corridor sees flakes with minimal stickage. NW sees up to 2”. We know this song and dance, unfortunately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted December 10, 2019 Share Posted December 10, 2019 3k is worlds different from 06z. Don't know if it will matter much, but the NAM seems to be having trouble figuring out what to do with this storm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted December 10, 2019 Share Posted December 10, 2019 19 minutes ago, MN Transplant said: 12z HRRR went inverse-HDRPSRDSRSD. 0.0" along the 95 corridor and not much better elsewhere. That's pretty much the only model with such low snow totals. Cranky is saying there's lots of moisture with this system and is leaning high but we'll see. Even the nam has higher totals I think but I'm too lazy to check Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 10, 2019 Share Posted December 10, 2019 1 minute ago, JakkelWx said: That's pretty much the only model with such low snow totals. Cranky is saying there's lots of moisture with this system and is leaning high but we'll see. Even the nam has higher totals I think but I'm too lazy to check NAM can't decide if it wants to give a NAMing, or just be dry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted December 10, 2019 Share Posted December 10, 2019 At this point I'd take this. 3k gets cranking by the end but just a little too late. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 10, 2019 Share Posted December 10, 2019 1 hour ago, mappy said: If it comes down heavy enough, column cools and we are in business. Of course, we know how these things work out. Runs today will get wetter into the afternoon Everyone will be hugging the HRRR around 8pm tonight as it shows some heavy blues over the area 1-3am Reality: sparse precip, temps never get to freezing, usual places get 1-2" Correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 10, 2019 Share Posted December 10, 2019 8 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: At this point I'd take this. 3k gets cranking by the end but just a little too late. This won't make Ji happy 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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