87storms Posted December 9, 2019 Share Posted December 9, 2019 I have absolutely no expectations beyond snow tv. We’re mild leading in and we have cold air chasing precip, not to mention starting out with wet ground. That said...it should be interesting to track and you gotta like how this season has started if you’re a snow/cold fan. And while my expectations are low, with the changeover start time looking like it’ll be at night and with rates good enough, it wouldn’t surprise me if grass, sidewalks, and parking lots get a coating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 9, 2019 Share Posted December 9, 2019 56 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Both the GFS and NAM just cut way back in snowfall totals. LOL, I mean way back. Really? Feels about the same here unless people thought 5"+ was realistic? I've been living in the 1/2" - 2" world on grass and mulch since jump....because...that's my climo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 9, 2019 Share Posted December 9, 2019 Mount Holly removed any mention of snow from the forecast here. They are expecting no more than a coating anywhere outside of their NE PA/NW NJ zones. It would take some dynamics and heavy precip/banding to overcome the warm boundary layer, esp for the coastal plain. Not sure that is very likely at this point. The usual places like Westminster will probably manage a sloppy inch or 2. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 9, 2019 Share Posted December 9, 2019 6z Euro 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 9, 2019 Share Posted December 9, 2019 21 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said: Really? Feels about the same here unless people thought 5"+ was realistic? I've been living in the 1/2" - 2" world on grass and mulch since jump....because...that's my climo I was just going off of TT. I’m with you. My high bar is an inch on non paved surfaces. Don’t see this as more than that. Never have. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 9, 2019 Share Posted December 9, 2019 HPC shifted their heaviest snow and highest probability nw while it seems the models have shifted some to the se. Guess it’s time for the Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 9, 2019 Share Posted December 9, 2019 Also noted that the precip amounts on TT didn’t vary much so the difference may be a function of the snow algorithms Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted December 9, 2019 Share Posted December 9, 2019 There are no models bringing anything but white rain inside the Beltways and/or 95 east. RGEM and GFS seem more bullish than EURO and NAM for NW areas. Fun to track. Not a big event for anyone but if NW areas see 2 inches on the grass would take it in a minute. I have to make up for the first 50 years of my life in the DMV when I was always in the white rain zone! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 9, 2019 Share Posted December 9, 2019 1 hour ago, C.A.P.E. said: 6z Euro I'm not sure I hate that look Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 9, 2019 Share Posted December 9, 2019 Just now, leesburg 04 said: I'm not sure I hate that look I wouldn't if I lived in Leesburg. Latest runs are screaming 35 and rain with a few splatty flakes for the corridor and points east, however. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 9, 2019 Share Posted December 9, 2019 23 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: I wouldn't if I lived in Leesburg. Latest runs are screaming 35 and rain with a few splatty flakes for the corridor and points east, however. Not convinced that they aren’t screaming that here also. Last Monday I had snow likely with temps that morning supposedly near 32. It barely got under 40 and there was no snow Monday or even Monday night. Managed a few flurries later in but temp forecasts busted high through the whole period. Just not feeling it but hoping for a pleasant surprise Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted December 9, 2019 Share Posted December 9, 2019 That is an ugly NAM run at 12 z. What happened to the precip? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted December 9, 2019 Share Posted December 9, 2019 WPC met: 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 9, 2019 Share Posted December 9, 2019 2 minutes ago, Interstate said: Too Funny to be fair, losetoa6 edited his post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted December 9, 2019 Share Posted December 9, 2019 I'll be shocked if I even see a period of wet snow at the very end. I've seen enough of these events to know how they turn out here. Enough cold air arrives just in time as the last water droplet has headed east. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 9, 2019 Share Posted December 9, 2019 Pretty confident that the NAM has gone off wandering through the woods. Radical changes over the past few runs while the globals have been fairly consistent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 9, 2019 Share Posted December 9, 2019 I'd happily wake up to this Wed morning 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 9, 2019 Share Posted December 9, 2019 23 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: I'd happily wake up to this Wed morning Pretty similar looking sounding for here with some decent precip still falling. I rather like the 3km NAM. Suggestive of some banding for eastern areas, which is probably what it would take to cool the lower levels and actually provide a chance of some snow stickage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 9, 2019 Share Posted December 9, 2019 1 minute ago, C.A.P.E. said: Pretty similar looking sounding for here with some decent precip still falling. I rather like the 3km NAM. Suggestive of some banding for eastern areas, which is probably what it would take to cool the lower levels and actually provide a chance of some snow stickage. 3k nam is encouraging with the column. At 1AM my yard is 36 but the freezing line is just off the deck. Precip knocks the surface down close to freezing with ease. Now does the cold really push that efficiently? I'd say not quick as nice as shown on the 3k but it's an interesting sounding either way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 9, 2019 Share Posted December 9, 2019 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted December 9, 2019 Share Posted December 9, 2019 Even the 12k has a pretty decent column, just no precip so the surface isn't at good. As it usually is with most events, if bands persist someone can be surprised with a 1-2 while the majority is white raining. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 9, 2019 Share Posted December 9, 2019 Looks like the RGEM is trending significantly weaker with the wave. The temps won't matter if we end up with a strung out mess and not an organized wave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted December 9, 2019 Share Posted December 9, 2019 4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Looks like the RGEM is trending significantly weaker with the wave. The temps won't matter if we end up with a strung out mess and not an organized wave. Still gets it done. Moderate snow at the end of the run looks to be ongoing, temps down to 30 even at DCA. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 9, 2019 Share Posted December 9, 2019 Just now, NorthArlington101 said: Still gets it done. Moderate snow at the end of the run looks to be ongoing, temps down to 30 even at DCA. It does, but I was looking at the trends alone. Everything has been trending more sheared with the wave. The rgem was most amped and it still is but it did trend weaker with everything else. But it’s not over. Long way to go. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 9, 2019 Share Posted December 9, 2019 12z RGEM suggests 8mm of snow or so around DCA through 72... but also has a large sleet marker of 7mm just before teh snow on its meteogram Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted December 9, 2019 Share Posted December 9, 2019 GFS has 33 ish in and around the city at 6z with snow. Looks very similar to the 6z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 9, 2019 Author Share Posted December 9, 2019 I think coating-3” probably covers it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 9, 2019 Author Share Posted December 9, 2019 Just now, LP08 said: GFS has 33 ish in and around the city at 6z with snow. Looks very similar to the 6z run. That gfs sounding is just bizarre. I don’t understand how that jives with moderate precip. Compare that to the NAM sounding Bob posted which makes much more sense. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 9, 2019 Share Posted December 9, 2019 As PSU said, it’s pretty clear what the trends are. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vice-Regent Posted December 9, 2019 Share Posted December 9, 2019 6 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: That gfs sounding is just bizarre. I don’t understand how that jives with moderate precip. Compare that to the NAM sounding Bob posted which makes much more sense. The model is broken at a fundamental level since the update. It needs a corrected iteration. The cold bias has increased to -0.3C globally averaged. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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