WinterWxLuvr Posted December 9, 2019 Share Posted December 9, 2019 27 minutes ago, LP08 said: 18z Euro Need that through 12z Wednesday for comparisons 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted December 9, 2019 Share Posted December 9, 2019 16 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Need that through 12z Wednesday for comparisons Through 12z with snow still falling Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 9, 2019 Share Posted December 9, 2019 27 minutes ago, LP08 said: Through 12z with snow still falling Ok. Thanks. That’s a pretty good step back from 12z if I remember Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted December 9, 2019 Share Posted December 9, 2019 Looks Amped.. hows the angle of the cold? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 9, 2019 Share Posted December 9, 2019 00z NAM at 39 has more snow on the NW QPF field rhen 18z at 45 did Yes, analysis of the NAM 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted December 9, 2019 Share Posted December 9, 2019 00z NAM depicting sleet verbatim DC/west at 57. Snow in the mountains. Front looks healthy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 9, 2019 Share Posted December 9, 2019 Best snows will be on an axis from Pulaski, VA to Intermont, WV to Orrstown, PA. -Cosgrove 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 9, 2019 Share Posted December 9, 2019 Just now, PhineasC said: Best snows will be on an axis from Pulaski, VA to Intermont, WV to Orrstown, PA. -Cosgrove Leave it to Cosgrove to come up with 2 random town names no one's heard of 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted December 9, 2019 Share Posted December 9, 2019 NAM is gonna end up being a decent step back for most of us, per WxBell maps. We get dryslotted pretty hard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 9, 2019 Share Posted December 9, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted December 9, 2019 Share Posted December 9, 2019 3 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: NAM is gonna end up being a decent step back for most of us, per WxBell maps. We get dryslotted pretty hard. Toss off run + NAM at range Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted December 9, 2019 Share Posted December 9, 2019 Good news: the 3k at range still looks great. Still going strong at this point with a lot to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 9, 2019 Share Posted December 9, 2019 26 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: NAM is gonna end up being a decent step back for most of us, per WxBell maps. We get dryslotted pretty hard. Perhaps but you’re comparing different times Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted December 9, 2019 Share Posted December 9, 2019 Perhaps but you’re comparing different timesThose are both from the same run unless I really screwed things up! I wasn’t looking to compare, just explain why that run was bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 9, 2019 Share Posted December 9, 2019 Just now, NorthArlington101 said: Those are both from the same run unless I really screwed things up! I wasn’t looking to compare, just explain why that run was bad. Oh ok. I didn’t look but was thinking you were comparing to 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted December 9, 2019 Share Posted December 9, 2019 In GooFuS we trust. Looking good! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted December 9, 2019 Share Posted December 9, 2019 Gfs'd'ed'did 3 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted December 9, 2019 Share Posted December 9, 2019 13 minutes ago, Scraff said: In GooFuS we trust. Looking good! #coldbias I wanna believe, but we all know how these kinda deals work out. Cold seems to always be delayed until best precip has exited stage left... Boy I wanna be wrong for once 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 9, 2019 Share Posted December 9, 2019 11 minutes ago, Scraff said: In GooFuS we trust. Looking good! I’ll hug that for now. Again I won’t really start to feel confident until we’re inside 24 hours and even then only somewhat. I’m not saying I don’t think this is a legit threat, just the hit zone is so narrow with these progressive waves and slight changes in the amplified of the wave, baroclinicity, or the location of the boundary can have huge impacts and none of those are easily modeled. That said things look about as good as they can right now so I’ll stay cautiously optimistic we get our first widespread event. It would be nice to get everyone on the board before Christmas for a change. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 9, 2019 Share Posted December 9, 2019 I'll have whatever the GFS is having 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 9, 2019 Share Posted December 9, 2019 3 minutes ago, stormtracker said: I'll have whatever the GFS is having when has the gfs ever out qpfed the NAM...#fv3smh 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 9, 2019 Share Posted December 9, 2019 Cmc and gfs are very similar. Good sign when globals are that close 72 hrs or less from an event. Euro will prob look similar. Blend of mesos and globals gives much of the area between .2 - .4 qpf as snow with some lollies .6+. I don't expect my yard to be efficient with stickage. Hopefully 1-2" if things break right. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 9, 2019 Share Posted December 9, 2019 00z UKIE is juicy... going to have to wait to see what is snow and what is rain though Hours 48 to 60 are 20 to 25mm of QPF... 60 to 72 is around 4mm of QPF... we assume that any QPF after 60 is snow... just wonder when we get the switch on the UKIE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 9, 2019 Share Posted December 9, 2019 Yes please... 00z RGEM snow map. Yes it's the right run. It goes out to 72 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted December 9, 2019 Share Posted December 9, 2019 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted December 9, 2019 Share Posted December 9, 2019 One of the major reasons we are seeing such a difference between the Euro and the GFS. This is total precip after we are starting to see a flip in the far NW burbs on the GFS. Euro is also lagging a couple of hours behind the GFS on the flip as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted December 9, 2019 Share Posted December 9, 2019 You may be wondering why we are seeing such a difference on the precip post frontal between the Euro and the GFS. Has to deal with the shortwave we see riding through the south. Below we have the Euro's depiction and it is a very weak feature. But notice on the GFS it has a somewhat stronger shortwave. So what that is doing is providing some push back to the cold air (which we don't have on the Euro) in the mid and upper levels so we are seeing a better moisture feed over top the colder air. So basically it is raising heights somewhat in front of the shortwave in it's natural tendency to try to force ridging. You can see the impact this has when looking at the Precipitable water maps. Note with the Euros weaker shortwave we are seeing a pretty much straight line. But note the slight bowing of that precipitable. we see on the GFS. This is due to the stronger shortwave providing more push back to the colder air. 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 9, 2019 Share Posted December 9, 2019 Both the GFS and NAM just cut way back in snowfall totals. LOL, I mean way back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted December 9, 2019 Share Posted December 9, 2019 One thing that makes this a possible accumulating snow vs. a white rain scenario is what we are seeing in the lower levels. Below are the soundings for central Carroll county about 6 hours before we should see a flip. If you note the lower levels are torching. But this is 6 hours later just shortly before we would expect the flip to begin. Notice that the lower levels have cooled significantly. What we are seeing here is a dry air intrusion into the lower levels centered roughly on the 850 mb. What this is doing is dropping the dews (green line) below freezing for all but the surface. So what we have is good lift (far left diagram) in the moister air (700 mb and above) creating precip that is in turn falling through the drier air below and rapidly cooling it. Now checking soundings around the DC/Balt corridor all show a similar signature of a lower level dry air intrusion. ***Now I don't have the soundings for the Euro but looking over the different maps suggests to me that it also sees this lower level dry air intrusion.*** So what does the above mean? It means that the difference between white rain and accumulating snow will be highly dependent on rates. Well DUH, right? We will need the rates to cool what is significant warming from 800 mbs and down, especially at 950 mbs to the surface. Don't get the rates and we never see the cooling needed at the very lowest levels of the atmosphere to get anything more then white rain. This could once again be a case where those that get into the heavier banding shown on the precip maps above score a few inches and yet those just north or south get a mulch covering or just white rain. Considering that this will be highly rate dependent the potential for bust, one way or the other is high as well for any particular locale. Especially when you note the difference between the Euro and the GFS from my previous post on precip totals as well as banding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 9, 2019 Share Posted December 9, 2019 Keep your expectations low people, won’t be disappointed when you end up with a few hours of white rain and a mulch covering at the end. 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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