WxUSAF Posted December 8, 2019 Share Posted December 8, 2019 Inside 72hrs with today’s 12z runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted December 8, 2019 Share Posted December 8, 2019 What positive is is comes in at night which should help some. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 8, 2019 Share Posted December 8, 2019 Surely we can get some type of reliable idea today since we are so close in time.- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 8, 2019 Author Share Posted December 8, 2019 Cranky’s thoughts 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 8, 2019 Share Posted December 8, 2019 6z Euro looks pretty sweet. 7 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 8, 2019 Share Posted December 8, 2019 On 12/8/2019 at 1:44 PM, C.A.P.E. said: 6z Euro looks pretty sweet. Expand Do you have the 72 and 75 hour maps? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted December 8, 2019 Share Posted December 8, 2019 On 12/8/2019 at 1:53 PM, WinterWxLuvr said: Do you have the 72 and 75 hour maps? Expand Is that sleet in sw VA? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted December 8, 2019 Share Posted December 8, 2019 Trying not to overload the site with maps, especially because the images WeatherBell gives me on my phone are annoyingly low-quality. 06z EURO shifted the heaviest stuff a decent bit SE. Better run for almost everyone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 8, 2019 Share Posted December 8, 2019 On 12/8/2019 at 1:53 PM, WinterWxLuvr said: Do you have the 72 and 75 hour maps? Expand Same look just shifted NW more towards your area. Here is the snowfall total, which seems pretty reasonable to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 8, 2019 Share Posted December 8, 2019 At this juncture, an inch or 2, with 3 in the favored areas seems like a realistic high bar. Low bar is the typical white rain we often see in these set ups. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 8, 2019 Share Posted December 8, 2019 Definitely more of a W-E orientation on the NAM 12z vs 6z. Hanging more energy back over TX too. Follow up wave to the follow up wave? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 8, 2019 Share Posted December 8, 2019 NAM giving some areas a NAMing. Should we surprised? Better surface reflection and good swath of overrunning for part of the forum. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 8, 2019 Share Posted December 8, 2019 On 12/8/2019 at 2:41 PM, Ralph Wiggum said: NAM giving some areas a NAMing. Should we surprised? Better surface reflection and good swath of overrunning for much of the forum. Expand Beware early NAMings lol. 6"+ for nearby highlands. 4-5" in the corridor. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted December 8, 2019 Share Posted December 8, 2019 Hopefully the nam is onto something with the focus on the late developing wave along the front. But it’s the nam so likely just going to make the reaper busy. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 8, 2019 Share Posted December 8, 2019 On 12/8/2019 at 2:44 PM, C.A.P.E. said: Beware early NAMings lol. 6"+ for nearby highlands. 4-5" in the corridor. Expand Just switched 'much' to 'part'. Forgot how widespread this sub is, sorry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 8, 2019 Share Posted December 8, 2019 On 12/8/2019 at 1:32 PM, WinterWxLuvr said: Surely we can get some type of reliable idea today since we are so close in time.- Expand You’ve been cracking me up for days, please keep it up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 8, 2019 Share Posted December 8, 2019 Should I trust the NAM? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 8, 2019 Share Posted December 8, 2019 On 12/8/2019 at 2:47 PM, WinterWxLuvr said: Should I trust the NAM? Expand If it gives you the most snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 8, 2019 Share Posted December 8, 2019 On 12/8/2019 at 2:49 PM, C.A.P.E. said: If it gives you the most snow. Expand Haha, my goto is usually the one that shows the least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 8, 2019 Share Posted December 8, 2019 On 12/8/2019 at 2:50 PM, WinterWxLuvr said: Haha, my goto is usually the one that shows the least. Expand That's what I usually go with lol, especially where I live. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 8, 2019 Share Posted December 8, 2019 On 12/8/2019 at 2:56 PM, WxWatcher007 said: The NAM is the NAM but it's not like the other guidance has shown nothing. I'm still a bit skeptical in general of a good event up and down the front, but it's hard to ignore the signal for at least some measurable snow via this setup. Just need to get numbers. It's all about production. Expand The precip part of this seems likely to at the least decent. It’s those ground temps that are so iffy at least as modeled. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 8, 2019 Share Posted December 8, 2019 NAM always nails the first storm of the season around here then nothing else until next winter 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 8, 2019 Share Posted December 8, 2019 12z GFS looks nice. Cant be totally right though because it bulleyes my yard. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 8, 2019 Share Posted December 8, 2019 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 8, 2019 Share Posted December 8, 2019 On 12/8/2019 at 3:55 PM, C.A.P.E. said: 12z GFS looks nice. Cant be totally right though because it bulleyes my yard. Expand These minute shifts in front orientation make a big difference right? Gfs and icon sped up the mid level push a little. That's important for the corridor and your hood. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 8, 2019 Share Posted December 8, 2019 On 12/8/2019 at 3:57 PM, Bob Chill said: These minute shifts in front orientation make a big difference right? Gfs and icon sped up the mid level push a little. That's important for the corridor and your hood. Expand Yup. Was watching h5 as it was rolling and I liked what I saw. Not a huge difference, but enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 8, 2019 Share Posted December 8, 2019 12z GGEM, FWIW, still looks nice for the region as well... 2"-4" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted December 8, 2019 Share Posted December 8, 2019 On 12/8/2019 at 3:09 PM, leesburg 04 said: NAM always nails the first storm of the season around here then nothing else until next winter Expand 78hr NAM is worlds more accurate than 84hr NAM. 6 hours more accurate Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted December 8, 2019 Share Posted December 8, 2019 On 12/8/2019 at 3:17 PM, losetoa6 said: Sref snow plumes look good BWI 2" mean FDK 4" HGR 5" Expand I wish we could have an unwritten rule about not mentioning the srefs, lol (but seriously what purpose do those things serve?) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 8, 2019 Share Posted December 8, 2019 On 12/8/2019 at 5:19 PM, Maestrobjwa said: I wish we could have an unwritten rule about not mentioning the srefs, lol (but seriously what purpose do those things serve?) Expand Provides the weenies something to hold on to when they are grasping at straws for accumulating snow. edit to add: not that losetoa6 was doing that, of course. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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