Barman49 Posted December 10, 2019 Share Posted December 10, 2019 This looks like nothing more than an inch or so on grass & cold surfaces. Sent from my Lenovo TB-X605F using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted December 10, 2019 Share Posted December 10, 2019 7 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: very dry-an inch or two for most here. The last 5 runs of the op Euro and EPS have gotten drier and drier Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted December 10, 2019 Share Posted December 10, 2019 11 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: very dry-an inch or two for most here. A good win for this time of year. Also, ahead of last year wrt snow event count. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted December 10, 2019 Share Posted December 10, 2019 Expect little, hope for more. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 10, 2019 Share Posted December 10, 2019 Nam slightly juicier 2-4 for NYC and CNJ. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted December 10, 2019 Share Posted December 10, 2019 13 minutes ago, Snow88 said: This is false https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=hrrr®ion=neus&pkg=asnowd&runtime=2019121018&fh=16 New Hi Res GFS is barely anything either 1 1 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 10, 2019 Share Posted December 10, 2019 1 hour ago, EastonSN+ said: A good win for this time of year. Also, ahead of last year wrt snow event count. Nam is much better for everyone 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted December 10, 2019 Share Posted December 10, 2019 18z 3k NAM thru 15 hrs. It shows a bit more thru 27 hrs along the coastal areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 10, 2019 Share Posted December 10, 2019 Just now, hudsonvalley21 said: 18z 3k NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NycStormChaser Posted December 10, 2019 Share Posted December 10, 2019 47 minutes ago, snowman19 said: The hi res GFS barely has anything at all now. The HRRR is basically a non event too Not sure which HRRR you were looking at but its 1 to 3 inches across the area. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted December 10, 2019 Share Posted December 10, 2019 If youre going to get into a pissing match about what the models show (or your interpretation of the models), please try to post the models. Consider it a high school report...cite your sources. 10 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikem81 Posted December 10, 2019 Share Posted December 10, 2019 21 minutes ago, snowman19 said: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=hrrr®ion=neus&pkg=asnowd&runtime=2019121018&fh=16 New Hi Res GFS is barely anything either Why post something that ends at 10Z when this is just turning over to snow for the NYC area? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikem81 Posted December 10, 2019 Share Posted December 10, 2019 Just now, mikem81 said: Why post something that ends at 10Z when this is just turning over to snow for the NYC area? Also, why post the HRRR at all within 10 hours? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 10, 2019 Share Posted December 10, 2019 Just now, mikem81 said: Why post something that ends at 10Z when this is just turning over to snow for the NYC area? And hrrr shouldnt be used until tonight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rclab Posted December 10, 2019 Share Posted December 10, 2019 20 minutes ago, Snowfreak09 said: You could truly destroy a wet dream. Perhaps u just read and post less. Our forums spectrum has a wonderful range of colors. On one end you have S88 on the other S19 with 69 hues between them. One, two, three, four or no inches? Without the beloved Charles Shultz to consult with I can only offer one of his Charlie Brown quotes: “worrying won’t stop the bad stuff from happening, it just stops you from enjoying the good. Frankly, I feel it’s all good. As always ..... 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted December 10, 2019 Share Posted December 10, 2019 These snow totals are probably being measured on a snowboard suspended a few hundred feet above ground. lol. The GFS LAMP stops all the precipitation while temperature only gets to 37 in NYC. Don't forget where the Skin T will be after two days in the 50's. And Nature is only playing the Saturday rain to make sure all snowboards are clean for the 17th/18th possibility. Models are playing ping-pong with that one now. There are too many elements of the atmosphere changing at the same time in unpredictable ways. Hang on to your favorite model(s). I have a favorite model, but she doesn't like to be squeezed by strangers. lol again 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Barman49 Posted December 10, 2019 Share Posted December 10, 2019 Our forums spectrum has a wonderful range of colors. On one end you have S88 on the other S19 with 69 hues between them. One, two, three, four or no inches? Without the beloved Charles Shultz to consult with I can only offer one of his Charlie Brown quotes: “worrying won’t stop the bad stuff from happening, it just stops you from enjoying the good. Frankly, I feel it’s all good. As always .....The difference is s19 only posts when there's snow on the models and to say the models are wrong and it's going to rain. Sent from my Lenovo TB-X605F using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 10, 2019 Share Posted December 10, 2019 Rgem 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 10, 2019 Share Posted December 10, 2019 LI does well on the gfs 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rclab Posted December 10, 2019 Share Posted December 10, 2019 24 minutes ago, Barman49 said: The difference is s19 only posts when there's snow on the models and to say the models are wrong and it's going to rain. Sent from my Lenovo TB-X605F using Tapatalk Considering all the reaction he gets his bias seems to be well spent. Even so it’s only five time daily, that is until the powers, as per tradition, reduce it to zero. As always ..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 10, 2019 Share Posted December 10, 2019 Gfs has a few inches for eastern LI with a nice snow band. NYC gets 1-2 on the gfs with a sharp cutoff just to the west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted December 10, 2019 Share Posted December 10, 2019 7 minutes ago, Snow88 said: LI does well on the gfs West jog is interesting however this looks DOA west of eastern Nassau. Hi-res RGEM looks way less impressive thru 11hrs as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 10, 2019 Share Posted December 10, 2019 Just now, Ericjcrash said: West jog is interesting however this looks DOA west of eastern Nassau. Hi-res RGEM looks way less impressive they 11hrs as well. Rgem still gives the area a few inches. LI is going to be the winners again Insane Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 10, 2019 Share Posted December 10, 2019 Just now, Ericjcrash said: West jog is interesting however this looks DOA west of eastern Nassau. Hi-res RGEM looks way less impressive they 11hrs as well. Nothing is DOA yet. We still have the models tonight. They arent in agreement yet. Euro has nothing for anyone except for an inch in places Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted December 10, 2019 Share Posted December 10, 2019 5 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Nothing is DOA yet. We still have the models tonight. They arent in agreement yet. Euro has nothing for anyone except for an inch in places DOA. Only model showing anything more than mood flakes(outside of LI) is the RGEM and associates. Hi-res went from impressive to nuisance. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rclab Posted December 10, 2019 Share Posted December 10, 2019 8 minutes ago, Wetbulbs88 said: Are you not equally biased? Which the moderator pointed out not but a few hours ago, along with during the last storm? You're just as annoying. I enjoy our local metro area weather. It’s like having a puberty rerun. Where else can you be in the raining mid fifties, yet at the same time, be under a, just hours away, Winter Weather Snow Advisory. As always ...... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted December 10, 2019 Share Posted December 10, 2019 anddd its over, i love the snowhole over westchester so far this season, awesome! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Monmouth_County_Jacpot Posted December 10, 2019 Share Posted December 10, 2019 3 minutes ago, Snowlover11 said: anddd its over, i love the snowhole over westchester so far this season, awesome! No worries the storm on the 22 should hit you if it stays the way it’s shown on the 18z gfs 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted December 10, 2019 Share Posted December 10, 2019 The 1-2 inch snowmaps which count sleet as snow only showing that much are a dead giveaway. You are not getting 10:1 ratios, more like 8:1 or most likely lower, when you factor that in, plus the boundary layer temps which are going to suck, you are getting less than an inch. You were well in the 50’s all day today, even far NW of the city, wet roads, wet ground, going to be a lot of disappointments tomorrow... 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wetbulbs88 Posted December 10, 2019 Share Posted December 10, 2019 1 minute ago, snowman19 said: The 1-2 inch snowmaps which count sleet as snow only showing that much are a dead giveaway. You are not getting 10:1 ratios, more like 8:1 or most likely lower, when you factor that in, plus the boundary layer temps which are going to suck, you are getting less than an inch. You were well in the 50’s all day today, even far NW of the city, wet roads, wet ground, going to be a lot of disappointments tomorrow... This. Unless the changeover comes earlier or the band situates more NW than modeled, I don't see this amounting to much in the city. 10 minutes ago, Snowlover11 said: anddd its over, i love the snowhole over westchester so far this season, awesome! That being said, I'm assuming this is based off the latest GFS? Wouldn't get too worked up about a GFS run inside 12 hours, it doesn't have to resolution to understand the specifics relevant to this time frame. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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