Zelocita Weather Posted December 10, 2019 Author Share Posted December 10, 2019 Looks like a nice 2-4" event on the NAM pretty much region wide (driest model) on the new 12z 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 10, 2019 Share Posted December 10, 2019 Nam was a step in the right direction. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 10, 2019 Share Posted December 10, 2019 Nam gets LI below freezing for a time 3k Nam has 2 -4 inches areawide for the city 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CPcantmeasuresnow Posted December 10, 2019 Share Posted December 10, 2019 Anyone have a NAM snowmap? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 10, 2019 Share Posted December 10, 2019 4 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Nam gets LI below freezing for a time 3k Nam has 2 -4 inches areawide for the city Maybe the North Shore of Long Island does best if the NAM CAD works out like this. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted December 10, 2019 Share Posted December 10, 2019 NAM is definitely a shift. It is wetter and focuses more QPF with the initial fronto push NW of the cities. Eventually that all shifts east but in sporadic bands. It is also several hours faster with the initial surge. Changes in QPF distribution and timing this run suggest the event is still in flux, as usual. At first glance this looks more favorable for inland locations from EPA - NNJ - SENY and maybe slightly less favorable for coastal NJ and LI. But I still think there is room for a scenario that gives a couple of inches to almost the entire region. The thermal boundary is in a relatively favorable position. The more precip. on the cold side the better. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 10, 2019 Share Posted December 10, 2019 54 minutes ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said: Anyone have a NAM snowmap? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted December 10, 2019 Share Posted December 10, 2019 All the Canadian stuff has been really really bullish. Sing a few Oh Canada's. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 10, 2019 Share Posted December 10, 2019 10:1 maps or kuchera should be used ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 10, 2019 Share Posted December 10, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted December 10, 2019 Share Posted December 10, 2019 7 minutes ago, Snow88 said: 10:1 maps or kuchera should be used ? I would use kuchera, and the 12z NAM kuchera map is showing only 1 inch for NYC. RGEM kuchera is better with close to 3 inches. Overall 1 to 2 mainly on colder surfaces still looks like the best call. BTW 12z HRRR looks really bad except for Long Island, but we're not in good HRRR range yet so hopefully it's off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wetbulbs88 Posted December 10, 2019 Share Posted December 10, 2019 As it stands, I think LI could get a few inches widespread. The city seems too close to the edge of any decent rates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 10, 2019 Share Posted December 10, 2019 Hrdps has a very heavy snow band over NYC. Shifted east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 10, 2019 Share Posted December 10, 2019 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
purduewx80 Posted December 10, 2019 Share Posted December 10, 2019 I'm not totally sold on the warm day = no accumulation argument. Cloud cover is going to be thick all day today. You can also tell the roads/sidewalks are cold based on everything still being wet - they're "sweating" due to the dew point being warmer than pavement temps. That said, despite the potential for a 1-3h burst of snow in the AM, reeling in expectations for more than an inch or two is wise in the city. Local areas could cash in, but this will be the exception rather than the rule. The mesoscale nature of these snowfall bands will be another nowcasting deal. We know large-scale conditions are favorable, but precisely where they develop is yet to be hashed out. You think our forecast is hard? Check out the day-of spread in the MS/TN Valleys - they're in the right-rear quad today: Currently, there are reports of sleet in the Memphis area...would not want to be a met at FedEx today. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 10, 2019 Share Posted December 10, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted December 10, 2019 Share Posted December 10, 2019 29 minutes ago, purduewx80 said: I'm not totally sold on the warm day = no accumulation argument. Cloud cover is going to be thick all day today. You can also tell the roads/sidewalks are cold based on everything still being wet - they're "sweating" due to the dew point being warmer than pavement temps. That said, despite the potential for a 1-3h burst of snow in the AM, reeling in expectations for more than an inch or two is wise in the city. Local areas could cash in, but this will be the exception rather than the rule. The mesoscale nature of these snowfall bands will be another nowcasting deal. We know large-scale conditions are favorable, but precisely where they develop is yet to be hashed out. You think our forecast is hard? Check out the day-of spread in the MS/TN Valleys - they're in the right-rear quad today: Currently, there are reports of sleet in the Memphis area...would not want to be a met at FedEx today. Looks like big bust for them? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
purduewx80 Posted December 10, 2019 Share Posted December 10, 2019 2 hours ago, bluewave said: Maybe the North Shore of Long Island does best if the NAM CAD works out like this. Certainly what the 12Z HREF is showing. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 10, 2019 Share Posted December 10, 2019 2 minutes ago, purduewx80 said: Certainly what the 12Z HREF is showing. Yeah, Long Island tends to do better than NYC in rain to snow situations. NYC can beat Long Island when storms begin as snow and end as rain. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wetbulbs88 Posted December 10, 2019 Share Posted December 10, 2019 1 minute ago, bluewave said: Yeah, Long Island tends to do better than NYC in rain to snow situations. NYC can beat Long Island when storms begin as snow and end as rain. Which are so much less fun lol 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted December 10, 2019 Share Posted December 10, 2019 3 minutes ago, Wetbulbs88 said: Which are so much less fun lol That’s actually a good chunk of our snowfall in the metro area Countless times we’ve had 6+ inches of snow and it ends with an hour or two of rain. In this case the city does better than Long Island because it’s further away from the Maritime influence In the opposite situation, the city retains heat even after the switch over to snow, while Long Island has more natural surface to accumulate snow that just changed over. Maritime effects are negligible in this case as the rain is going over to snow with colder air moving in from the west (away from maritime influences) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
purduewx80 Posted December 10, 2019 Share Posted December 10, 2019 22 minutes ago, qg_omega said: Looks like big bust for them? Big bust for the GFS in terms of precipitation placement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wetbulbs88 Posted December 10, 2019 Share Posted December 10, 2019 1 minute ago, jfklganyc said: That’s actually a good chunk of our snowfall in the metro area Countless times we’ve had 6+ inches of snow and it ends with an hour or two of rain. In this case the city does better than Long Island because it’s further away from the Maritime influence In the opposite situation, the city retains heat even after the switch over to snow, while Long Island has more natural surface to accumulate snow that just changed over. Maritime effects are negligible in this case as the rain is going over to snow with colder air moving in from the west (away from maritime influences) Sure but I'd take 2 inches of snow on the backend over 6 inches on the front any day. To each their own, I just hate my snow turning to slop. Would probably need double digits to feel like it was worth it, unless it ends as just some drizzle like last year in November. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted December 10, 2019 Share Posted December 10, 2019 1 hour ago, purduewx80 said: I'm not totally sold on the warm day = no accumulation argument. Cloud cover is going to be thick all day today. You can also tell the roads/sidewalks are cold based on everything still being wet - they're "sweating" due to the dew point being warmer than pavement temps. That said, despite the potential for a 1-3h burst of snow in the AM, reeling in expectations for more than an inch or two is wise in the city. Local areas could cash in, but this will be the exception rather than the rule. The mesoscale nature of these snowfall bands will be another nowcasting deal. We know large-scale conditions are favorable, but precisely where they develop is yet to be hashed out. Everything is wet here because it's been misting and raining since about 8am here. With the temp in the low 50's this morning we were drying out much more quickly than I would have expected. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
purduewx80 Posted December 10, 2019 Share Posted December 10, 2019 2 minutes ago, gravitylover said: Everything is wet here because it's been misting and raining since about 8am here. With the temp in the low 50's this morning we were drying out much more quickly than I would have expected. Makes sense. The city obs were all dry between ~midnight and ~noon. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 10, 2019 Share Posted December 10, 2019 Radar is really juiced up. Models are really dry for some reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted December 10, 2019 Share Posted December 10, 2019 1 hour ago, purduewx80 said: I'm not totally sold on the warm day = no accumulation argument. Cloud cover is going to be thick all day today. You can also tell the roads/sidewalks are cold based on everything still being wet - they're "sweating" due to the dew point being warmer than pavement temps. That said, despite the potential for a 1-3h burst of snow in the AM, reeling in expectations for more than an inch or two is wise in the city. Local areas could cash in, but this will be the exception rather than the rule. The mesoscale nature of these snowfall bands will be another nowcasting deal. We know large-scale conditions are favorable, but precisely where they develop is yet to be hashed out. You think our forecast is hard? Check out the day-of spread in the MS/TN Valleys - they're in the right-rear quad today: Currently, there are reports of sleet in the Memphis area...would not want to be a met at FedEx today. Not to mention temperatures outside of the city were well down in the teens 2 mornings ago. It's not like today's weather has been the pattern for weeks. In fact daily lows have averaged sub-freezing here since November 1. 11/29/95 was 63 degrees late afternoon and snowing here by midnight. It turned over here before it did in the city. That snow had no problem sticking. This one might not have as much snow, but the table setting seems the same. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wetbulbs88 Posted December 10, 2019 Share Posted December 10, 2019 Euro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
purduewx80 Posted December 10, 2019 Share Posted December 10, 2019 9 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Radar is really juiced up. Models are really dry for some reason. There is a lot of dry air leading to virga on the northern fringes of what you see on composite radar imagery. The 12Z Little Rock sounding (below) revealed the dry air layer. No models caught on to the -21C dew point just below 850mb. SGF to its northwest was considerably drier and explains why Memphis and Nashville are currently not observing precipitation. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 10, 2019 Share Posted December 10, 2019 5 minutes ago, Wetbulbs88 said: Euro? very dry-an inch or two for most here. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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