MJO812 Posted December 10, 2019 Share Posted December 10, 2019 Kuchera shows 1-3 inches but 10:1 shows 2-4 for the area. Nam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 10, 2019 Share Posted December 10, 2019 1 hour ago, qg_omega said: Looks well overdone, coating to 2 inches is good call. Most will see less than an inch mostly on grass Based off what? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted December 10, 2019 Share Posted December 10, 2019 The 0z NAM looks pretty unimpressive. Dry and SE. The ribbon of moderate post-frontal precip. from MD through EPA, SENY, and SNE consistently shown for the past few days is not very impressive as depicted. This might be good for the immediate coastal areas and Long Island, but there's not much NW of there. I hope it comes back some tomorrow. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 10, 2019 Share Posted December 10, 2019 37 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Based off what? um the trend--models are cutting back slowly but surely. Light to moderate rates won't do it especially after 2 days of rain and temps in the 50's. Could be another win for the Euro which has never been impressed with this system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 10, 2019 Share Posted December 10, 2019 8 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: um the trend--models are cutting back slowly but surely. Light to moderate rates won't do it especially after 2 days of rain and temps in the 50's. Could be another win for the Euro which has never been impressed with this system. Temps are going to be near freezing when the front passes through. 1-3 is a good call. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 10, 2019 Share Posted December 10, 2019 45 minutes ago, eduggs said: The 0z NAM looks pretty unimpressive. Dry and SE. The ribbon of moderate post-frontal precip. from MD through EPA, SENY, and SNE consistently shown for the past few days is not very impressive as depicted. This might be good for the immediate coastal areas and Long Island, but there's not much NW of there. I hope it comes back some tomorrow. Another whole day of modeling tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 10, 2019 Share Posted December 10, 2019 Just now, Snow88 said: Temps are going to be near freezing when the front passes through. 1-3 is a good call. if there moderate rates that will work-light rates won't just like the last system. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted December 10, 2019 Share Posted December 10, 2019 RGEM continues to look much better than NAM. 0z RGEM Kuchera is 3 to 4 inches for a lot of the area. I would go with more like 1 to 2 on colder surfaces for a prediction though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted December 10, 2019 Share Posted December 10, 2019 It looks like the GFS basically held course. Roughly 0.2 - 0.4 frozen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted December 10, 2019 Share Posted December 10, 2019 1 minute ago, eduggs said: It looks like the GFS basically held course. Roughly 0.2 - 0.4 frozen. Tick warmer and more sharp. Not much to see given temps however maybe a weenie fronto band makes someone's day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted December 10, 2019 Share Posted December 10, 2019 Hi-res RGEM has a sweet band that dies as it tries to cross 95. But quite the impressive band. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathermedic Posted December 10, 2019 Share Posted December 10, 2019 WWA up for NYC, LI, nearby NJ, Westchester and CT 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted December 10, 2019 Share Posted December 10, 2019 NAM, GFS, RGEM, even Euro have all cut back overnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted December 10, 2019 Share Posted December 10, 2019 8 hours ago, Brian5671 said: um the trend--models are cutting back slowly but surely. Light to moderate rates won't do it especially after 2 days of rain and temps in the 50's. Could be another win for the Euro which has never been impressed with this system. Agreed, never been a fan of this one. In midtown it will be what snow? Expecting a slushy coating on paved surfaces on the uws, maybe an inch or two on the grass. The grounds going to be radiating heat! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 10, 2019 Share Posted December 10, 2019 20 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said: NAM, GFS, RGEM, even Euro have all cut back overnight. Yep 1-2 inches is a good call if that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 10, 2019 Share Posted December 10, 2019 Car topper per the latest trends. It'll be near freezing and less than .25 of QPF. Meh. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted December 10, 2019 Share Posted December 10, 2019 No matter the latest models, this is still worth watching for any last minute changes. But yeah, keep expectations low. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 10, 2019 Share Posted December 10, 2019 16 minutes ago, White Gorilla said: No matter the latest models, this is still worth watching for any last minute changes. But yeah, keep expectations low. Agree. Let's see the models today. All the models show 1-2 for the city with slightly more for eastern LI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 10, 2019 Share Posted December 10, 2019 32 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: Car topper per the latest trends. It'll be near freezing and less than .25 of QPF. Meh. Throwing in the towel already ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 10, 2019 Share Posted December 10, 2019 15 minutes ago, White Gorilla said: No matter the latest models, this is still worth watching for any last minute changes. But yeah, keep expectations low. These things always end up west the last few years because of the tendency of any degree of ridging in the western Atlantic to be stronger than modeled, even at 24 hours you usually are good for a tick west 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 10, 2019 Share Posted December 10, 2019 6 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Throwing in the towel already ? for anything more than an inch on the grass/car tops, yeah-hate seeing the Euro never be on board for this one, looks like it will turn out to be right. Too little QPF and with temps in the 50's for 2 days and with marginal temps this won't be much. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted December 10, 2019 Share Posted December 10, 2019 Maybe congrats Jersey coast and LI with this one if theres enough precip, I said I was always more worried about supression than too far NW. The city will probably see an inch at most. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 10, 2019 Share Posted December 10, 2019 2 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: for anything more than an inch on the grass/car tops, yeah-hate seeing the Euro never be on board for this one, looks like it will turn out to be right. Too little QPF and with temps in the 50's for 2 days and with marginal temps this won't be much. Hate it also this close to the event. Maybe we can get a miracle today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 10, 2019 Share Posted December 10, 2019 9 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: These things always end up west the last few years because of the tendency of any degree of ridging in the western Atlantic to be stronger than modeled, even at 24 hours you usually are good for a tick west This is what happened in 2016. It kept ticking west at the last minute. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
purduewx80 Posted December 10, 2019 Share Posted December 10, 2019 QPF queens will get burned with this one. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 10, 2019 Share Posted December 10, 2019 19 minutes ago, purduewx80 said: QPF queens will get burned with this one. Correct me if I'm wrong but this is intense frontogenesis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
purduewx80 Posted December 10, 2019 Share Posted December 10, 2019 4 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Correct me if I'm wrong but this is intense frontogenesis. Yeah, and the DGZ is right at 500 mb. Still time for this to wiggle around but wherever that sets up will see a brief burst of mod/heavy snow during rush hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 10, 2019 Share Posted December 10, 2019 24 minutes ago, purduewx80 said: QPF queens will get burned with this one. The only question I have is if the whole thing ticks NW. Regardless I think there will be isolated 5-6 inch amounts with this though the majority will only see 1-2 and there will be a screw zone, possibly in between 2 areas that do better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 10, 2019 Share Posted December 10, 2019 12KM NAM through 15 hours has like triple the QPF across PA and down into MD//WV from prior runs. We will see how that translates over next 12-18 hours 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted December 10, 2019 Author Share Posted December 10, 2019 NAM much more juiced than prior 3-4 runs...figured this would happen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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