HVSnowLover Posted December 9, 2019 Share Posted December 9, 2019 Looks like maybe a few hours of moderate snow with temps at or above freezing, seems similar to the last event. Without heavy rates I don't see this doing much. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 9, 2019 Share Posted December 9, 2019 1 minute ago, HVSnowLover said: Looks like maybe a few hours of moderate snow with temps at or above freezing, seems similar to the last event. Without heavy rates I don't see this doing much. 1-3 inches is a good chance for the city. Temps are going to be near freezing. Let's hope for a nice bust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 9, 2019 Share Posted December 9, 2019 52 minutes ago, eduggs said: 850s are cold but the surface is still relatively warm (outside of elevated areas) and there is even an elevated warm layer. Soundings also show a low level unstable layer. There could also be a period of sleet. I really hope future model runs stop decreasing QPF. Heavier intensity precipitation will really help mix down the colder temps aloft. This could be a classic short duration, high intensity "surprise" snowfall. The low expectation events are sometimes the most fun when they break right. These events can bust high if they break right like you said. Sometimes the models underestimate the cold air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 9, 2019 Share Posted December 9, 2019 Euro is 1-2 for the city with slightly more in LI. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TJW014 Posted December 9, 2019 Share Posted December 9, 2019 Like I said before... air temperature won't be much of a problem. If the ground surfaces are above freezing, then nothing will accumulate, say for car roofs. IMO, the snow will accumulate. It's a matter of how quickly that happens once we switch to snow. In other words... that thermometer I had buried died, and I forget where I put it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted December 9, 2019 Share Posted December 9, 2019 21 minutes ago, Snow88 said: These events can bust high if they break right like you said. Sometimes the models underestimate the cold air. Cold air not as big of the issue as lack of QPF on the most recent model runs 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Claus Posted December 9, 2019 Share Posted December 9, 2019 I feel fairly confident the precip estimates for today are going to bust low, at least in New Jersey. Radar is juiced, it's very early, and it's absolutely pouring. I think some people will end up with 2" in the I-95 corridor. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted December 9, 2019 Share Posted December 9, 2019 The 18z NAM continues the drier and SE trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted December 9, 2019 Share Posted December 9, 2019 It looks like the 18z NAM has a burst of snow along the coastal plane Wed. morning. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 9, 2019 Share Posted December 9, 2019 3 minutes ago, eduggs said: The 18z NAM continues the drier and SE trend. It doesnt even show it raining. It does look slightly better than the 12z run. Either it's going to verify or it's way off. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 9, 2019 Share Posted December 9, 2019 2-3 for NYC on the Nam with slightly more towards eastern LI. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted December 9, 2019 Share Posted December 9, 2019 Just now, Snow88 said: It doesnt even show it raining. It does look slightly better than the 12z run. Either it's going to verify or it's way off. The snow maps might look a little better on the 18z NAM than the 12z for the immediate NYC area (due to a late burst) and possibly parts of NE, but overall the NAM was less robust in developing precip. on the NW side of the cold front and cut back QPF throughout the SE and MA. I was hoping to see a more expansive precip. shield on the cold side - even an incipient baroclinic leaf - but the NAM is moving away from that scenario. Sure a more robust solution might be warmer initially near the coast, but it would also likely increase the odds of a plowable event region wide. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted December 9, 2019 Author Share Posted December 9, 2019 Certainly less QPF than prior runs on the NAM, but much colder at surface and aloft and no taint. Could even be decent ratios 10-12:`1 with the 850s if surface is 32F or below. per NAM yes, 1-3 looks right, but would not be surprised for 2-4/3-5 when we get actually get there. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted December 9, 2019 Share Posted December 9, 2019 Yes the delayed onset of the "anafrontal" precip. compared to a guidance a day or two ago allows the atmosphere to cool on the NAM. That has eliminated the sleet threat for now (layers above 850 are warm prior to 12z) and also allows the surface to cool to 34F or below almost everywhere. Moderate snow will stick almost everywhere at 33F. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 9, 2019 Share Posted December 9, 2019 Gfs is juicier. Has a few inches for the coast. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted December 9, 2019 Share Posted December 9, 2019 Juicier, drier, juicier, drier... Back and forth we go. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted December 9, 2019 Share Posted December 9, 2019 Another step down for the RDPS. The 18z is slightly SE and noticeably drier than previous wet runs. But the axis of snow is favorable. We seem to be converging on a model consensus for between 0.2 and 0.4 frozen QPF between approx. 06z and 15z Wed. from NW to E. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeadInTheClouds Posted December 9, 2019 Share Posted December 9, 2019 33 minutes ago, White Gorilla said: Juicier, drier, juicier, drier... Back and forth we go. I'm expecting 1-2 for us in Mid-Hudson. Anything more would be a nice surprise. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 9, 2019 Share Posted December 9, 2019 2 minutes ago, eduggs said: Another step down for the RDPS. The 18z is slightly SE and noticeably drier than previous wet runs. But the axis of snow is favorable. We seem to be converging on a model consensus for between 0.2 and 0.4 frozen QPF between approx. 06z and 15z Wed. from NW to E. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Barman49 Posted December 9, 2019 Share Posted December 9, 2019 Another step down for the RDPS. The 18z is slightly SE and noticeably drier than previous wet runs. But the axis of snow is favorable. We seem to be converging on a model consensus for between 0.2 and 0.4 frozen QPF between approx. 06z and 15z Wed. from NW to E.Doesn't look drier. Looks like the snow shifted SE. Plus on the 12z it's still snowing. So I'm not sure it really cut back. Unless you are referring to your specific location. Sent from my Lenovo TB-X605F using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted December 9, 2019 Share Posted December 9, 2019 The hi-res Canadian is too sensitive to elevation in terms of generating QPF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted December 9, 2019 Share Posted December 9, 2019 2 minutes ago, Barman49 said: Doesn't look drier. Looks like the snow shifted SE. Plus on the 12z it's still snowing. So I'm not sure it really cut back. Unless you are referring to your specific location. Sent from my Lenovo TB-X605F using Tapatalk The 06z and 12z had widespread 10+ mm snow QPF with pockets of ~18mm for a long swath from MD up through New England. The 18z is widespread 6+ mm with an area of 10mm mostly in NE. It's not a huge change but a step down from being on the wetter side of the envelope. It has also shifted SE with the axis since yesterday. The heaviest band is now close to the I-95 corridor and close to consensus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Barman49 Posted December 9, 2019 Share Posted December 9, 2019 The 06z and 12z had widespread 10+ mm snow QPF with pockets of ~18mm for a long swath from MD up through New England. The 18z is widespread 6+ mm with an area of 10mm mostly in NE. It's not a huge change but a step down from being on the wetter side of the envelope. It has also shifted SE with the axis since yesterday. The heaviest band is now close to the I-95 corridor and close to consensus.Yeah that's what I meant I think it just adjusted. Not that I would rely on the model but it did shift SE like others did. Sent from my GM1925 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 9, 2019 Share Posted December 9, 2019 The RGEM was way too far west at 12Z and it tends to have an amped bias beyond 30-36 so I expected a tick SE over the course of the next few runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Barman49 Posted December 9, 2019 Share Posted December 9, 2019 The RGEM was way too far west at 12Z and it tends to have an amped bias beyond 30-36 so I expected a tick SE over the course of the next few runs Do you find it odd that both the 12k & 3k are the most SE? I tend to trust the NAM in this time frame but do you think they are pushing the front too far SE as opposed to the rest of the models? Sent from my Lenovo TB-X605F using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCweatherNOW Posted December 9, 2019 Share Posted December 9, 2019 5 hours ago, HVSnowLover said: Looks like maybe a few hours of moderate snow with temps at or above freezing, seems similar to the last event. Without heavy rates I don't see this doing much. It’s mostly predawn 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted December 10, 2019 Author Share Posted December 10, 2019 Seems reasonable 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted December 10, 2019 Share Posted December 10, 2019 48 minutes ago, Zelocita Weather said: Seems reasonable Looks well overdone, coating to 2 inches is good call. Most will see less than an inch mostly on grass 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted December 10, 2019 Share Posted December 10, 2019 18Z GFS and NAM looked pretty good for the metro area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJsnow89 Posted December 10, 2019 Share Posted December 10, 2019 Nam is terrible for the area at 0z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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