MJO812 Posted December 9, 2019 Share Posted December 9, 2019 Gfs still looks really nice for the whole area. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted December 9, 2019 Share Posted December 9, 2019 14 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Not true anymore. Euro isnt what it was back in the day. So your saying the euros skill is less then it used to be? I highly doubt that. Too many things need to go right for this to be more then some wet non accumulating snow (in the city) I’ll take a slushy coating as I like all snow but keep expectations low 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJsnow89 Posted December 9, 2019 Share Posted December 9, 2019 22 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Gfs still looks really nice for the whole area. Yes but we all know not to trust that model Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 9, 2019 Share Posted December 9, 2019 5 minutes ago, NJsnow89 said: Yes but we all know not to trust that model Can we trust any model lately ? They all suck. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 9, 2019 Share Posted December 9, 2019 11 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: So your saying the euros skill is less then it used to be? I highly doubt that. Too many things need to go right for this to be more then some wet non accumulating snow (in the city) I’ll take a slushy coating as I like all snow but keep expectations low How many times have the euro busted in the past few years ? It's not as good as it use to be. 1-3 is still a good call for the city . Hopefully the gfs is right with 2-4. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCweatherNOW Posted December 9, 2019 Share Posted December 9, 2019 1 hour ago, Snow88 said: How many times have the euro busted in the past few years ? It's not as good as it use to be. 1-3 is still a good call for the city . Hopefully the gfs is right with 2-4. How’s the euro this morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 9, 2019 Share Posted December 9, 2019 9 minutes ago, NYCweatherNOW said: How’s the euro this morning Meh 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted December 9, 2019 Share Posted December 9, 2019 21 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Meh How about north of NYC? Sorry don't have time to look myself Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted December 9, 2019 Share Posted December 9, 2019 7 minutes ago, White Gorilla said: How about north of NYC? Sorry don't have time to look myself Pretty Meh anywhere. 2-3" on a 10:1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted December 9, 2019 Share Posted December 9, 2019 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TJW014 Posted December 9, 2019 Share Posted December 9, 2019 Just my $0.02, but I don't think much of us get much accumulation, maybe an inch or two in the higher elevations. As far as I see, we hover around 31-35. And if we saw what happened last Monday, we need some decent rates to get accumulating snow. Add in that It will be near 60 on Tuesday, and the ground will probably still be warmer than the air, at least for the start of snow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted December 9, 2019 Share Posted December 9, 2019 21 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said: Pretty Meh anywhere. 2-3" on a 10:1 Ah well, we take what we can get. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted December 9, 2019 Share Posted December 9, 2019 The 06 NAM backed off QPF and the 06z ICON has the band of precip. far SE with only minor accumulations for the coastal areas. But the 06z UK and RDPS were still very wet with (likely) moderate snow accumulations. The 12z NAM was again light on QPF. Typical slight but locally meaningful model disagreement. The radar and obs early Wed. morning off to our SSW will likely tell the tale. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted December 9, 2019 Share Posted December 9, 2019 There seems to be a slight trend to lessen QPF and possibly shift the axis a little east among the majority of guidance in recent runs. But it's hard to tell if it's just noise or not. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 9, 2019 Share Posted December 9, 2019 Looks like 1-2 inches for the coast as of right now. We have all day today to see what happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 9, 2019 Share Posted December 9, 2019 Rgem continues to look good. Nam might have been a blip run. Let's see the other models today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 9, 2019 Share Posted December 9, 2019 Gfs has a few inches for the city. Looks nice for everyone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 9, 2019 Share Posted December 9, 2019 Kuchera snowmap has about 3 inches for the city. Nam so far is the driest model. 2-4 inches for the city based off the 12z runs with the cmc and euro up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted December 9, 2019 Share Posted December 9, 2019 8 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Kuchera snowmap has about 3 inches for the city. Nam so far is the driest model. 2-4 inches for the city based off the 12z runs with the cmc and euro up. This is more of a car topper in the city..maybe an inch. entire event looks mediocre at best even inland. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 9, 2019 Share Posted December 9, 2019 2 minutes ago, Animal said: This is more of a car topper in the city..maybe an inch. entire event looks mediocre at best even inland. Based off what ? 2-4 is a good call right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted December 9, 2019 Share Posted December 9, 2019 6 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Based off what ? 2-4 is a good call right now Our locals are going for 2-3 inches for the city and long island and 3-5 inches north and west of us, with accumulating snow between 5 AM and 2 PM 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathermedic Posted December 9, 2019 Share Posted December 9, 2019 With temps progged to fall below freezing, a rain to snow transition and precipitation continuing to fall, I think a major problem will be any untreated road surfaces freezing up eventually as the morning progresses. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted December 9, 2019 Share Posted December 9, 2019 19 minutes ago, weathermedic said: With temps progged to fall below freezing, a rain to snow transition and precipitation continuing to fall, I think a major problem will be any untreated road surfaces freezing up eventually as the morning progresses. Yes, I think this storm is being underplayed. 1-3 inches on top of wet roads can be hazardous, most accidents happen during and just after light snowfalls. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TJW014 Posted December 9, 2019 Share Posted December 9, 2019 12z GEM lol. Would be a nice hit for everyone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted December 9, 2019 Author Share Posted December 9, 2019 Seems like a pretty cold 2-4" or so for most of the region, some of the snow falls with 850s near -6/-9F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Jims Videos Posted December 9, 2019 Share Posted December 9, 2019 The morning rush hour Wednesday has the potential to be quite dicey as it stands right now. No one is going to take a snow threat seriously tomorrow when it's 65 degrees and raining. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 9, 2019 Share Posted December 9, 2019 Like I said yesterday, we'd be lucky to get an inch. No change from that idea. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted December 9, 2019 Share Posted December 9, 2019 3 hours ago, RichBailey said: is it me or were high winds predicted for yesterday and today and they don't seem so bad It’s bad enough. JFK has windshear and gusts to 30 knots Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted December 9, 2019 Share Posted December 9, 2019 2 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: Like I said yesterday, we'd be lucky to get an inch. No change from that idea. Northwest burbs should get a few inches. Wouldn't really be expecting more than an inch or two for i95/coast with BL issues and crappy lift. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted December 9, 2019 Share Posted December 9, 2019 10 minutes ago, Zelocita Weather said: Seems like a pretty cold 2-4" or so for most of the region, some of the snow falls with 850s near -6/-9F 850s are cold but the surface is still relatively warm (outside of elevated areas) and there is even an elevated warm layer. Soundings also show a low level unstable layer. There could also be a period of sleet. I really hope future model runs stop decreasing QPF. Heavier intensity precipitation will really help mix down the colder temps aloft. This could be a classic short duration, high intensity "surprise" snowfall. The low expectation events are sometimes the most fun when they break right. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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