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Winter 2020 New England Banter and General Obs


CapturedNature
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I think the major concern is the elderly and the general systemic shock of it all from a health care, economic, and trade standpoint. It does not spread as fast as the flu and preventative measures have worked to slow the spread of the virus. Not sure everyone has the stomach for what it might take to stop the spread though. It's a bit easier for China to use draconian measures on its citizens than in more free and democratic countries. 

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2 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said:

I think the major concern is the elderly and the general systemic shock of it all from a health care, economic, and trade standpoint. It does not spread as fast as the flu and preventative measures have worked to slow the spread of the virus. Not sure everyone has the stomach for what it might take to stop the spread though. It's a bit easier for China to use draconian measures on its citizens than in more free and democratic countries. 

I don’t think the bold is correct.  

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3 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said:

 It does not spread as fast as the flu

Everything I've read has been contrary to this. The flu has an R0 of 1.3 and COVID-19 has been between 2-3. So people are spreading it to twice as many people as they would the flu. The flu has no efforts taken to reduce the viral spread either.

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The workers who often don’t get paid sick leave are the people serving you in restaurants, cleaning houses, providing all kinds of personal services.  The chickens of the elevation of the almighty dollar at the expense of many workers for the past 40 years are coming home to roost.

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Just now, dendrite said:

Everything I've read has been contrary to this. The flu has an R0 of 1.3 and COVID-19 has been between 2-3. So people are spreading it to twice as many people as they would the flu. The flu has no efforts taken to reduce the viral spread either.

Yeah the Ro is higher but I believe there's more factors than that control the disease spread. I read a WHO statement recently. Let me see if I can find it. 

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13 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said:

I think the major concern is the elderly and the general systemic shock of it all from a health care, economic, and trade standpoint. It does not spread as fast as the flu and preventative measures have worked to slow the spread of the virus. Not sure everyone has the stomach for what it might take to stop the spread though. It's a bit easier for China to use draconian measures on its citizens than in more free and democratic countries. 

I'm curious where you saw it doesn't spread as fast as the flu. From what I've read, typical flu has an R nought of around 1.25-1.5, with a severe pandemic like 1918 closer to 2. I've seen estimates for COVID19 ranging from 2 to 6. Case tracking and diligent isolation help lower that transmission rate, but once community spread takes hold even measures like China took can only reduce the infection rate so much. It does buy time though, which is important in preventing healthcare systems from breaking down. The trade off is, to prevent unchecked growth, you have to basically shut down your economy, which has its own knock on risks. 

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Just now, Hoth said:

I'm curious where you saw it doesn't spread as fast as the flu. From what I've read, typical flu has an R nought of around 1.25-1.5, with a severe pandemic like 1918 closer to 2. I've seen estimates for COVID19 ranging from 2 to 6. Case tracking and diligent isolation help lower that transmission rate, but once community spread takes hold even measures like China took can only reduce the infection rate so much. It does buy time though, which is important in preventing healthcare systems from breaking down. The trade off is, to prevent unchecked growth, you have to basically shut down your economy, which has its own knock on risks. 

Yeah i can't seem to find the article I was reading. I'm pretty sure it was legit, like from the WHO or the CDC about it seemingly spreading slower than the flu even though the Ro is higher than that of the seasonal flu. 

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14 minutes ago, dendrite said:

I read something the other day that the virus was found still alive in a vent in one of the Asian hospitals. So it can apparently survive being airborne for awhile as well.

Five days on average and up to 9 on some surfaces in a cool, humid environment.

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38 minutes ago, weathafella said:

The workers who often don’t get paid sick leave are the people serving you in restaurants, cleaning houses, providing all kinds of personal services.  The chickens of the elevation of the almighty dollar at the expense of many workers for the past 40 years are coming home to roost.

Agreed 1000%. 
 

There’s talk of bailing out the airlines. There should be equal if not more discussion for assisting average workers who can’t miss work for fear of missing rent/putting food on the table/etc.  Time for the US to finally mature or lots of people will suffer in the coming months. Not hyperbole. 

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1 hour ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Yea, that’s the right approach. Unfortunately, nowadays, everyone can find an opinion online (even from a professional) to fit our own which makes us believe it is a fact. There is no right or wrong sometimes. So I’m not saying Steve is wrong, I just don’t agree with the approach. 

Wrong about what? I agree with the good Doctor. Fear mongering and panic accomplish nothing. Good hygiene and being calm is what I say. Its coming,  keep your cool. Not looking to find an agenda

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1 hour ago, weathafella said:

I had the flu 2 years ago and went in to be tested in the early stages.   There were no masks to be found but doctors in the office wore them to protect themselves.  I thnk there’s a lot of misinformation regarding masks.  If you’re in an area with sick people and you have no choice but to be there....I think masks can be protective, particularly N95 masks.

N95 masks need to be fitted by someone who knows how they are supposed to fit. I see these people on TV with N95 masks on with obvious gaps. 

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Basically what I am saying is if a nationwide panic starts who knows what happens.  The potential for total societal anarchy is always under the surface. Do not let this virus define who you are. Maintain your calm, take reasonable proactive measures to assure your safety.  But don't be the person who panics in the crowd and sets off a chain reaction.  

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26 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Anecdotal reports.  Still wide variety of presentations and courses which is what is so concerning.

Yeah, that's probably a decent representation of a mild case, or about 60-70% of cases. On the flipside, there's stuff like this: https://www.yahoo.com/entertainment/virus-kills-chinese-film-director-100442476.html

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