Winter 2020 New England Banter and General Obs

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

2 hours ago, S&P said:

Yeah that’s not a lot unless you piece together something from various sources, box set is your only reasonable option. I have a box set my son used that I have replaced some pieces with that your welcome to if you want. 

I appreciate the offer. I’ll keep poking around and see what I can come up with first. Looks like the weather is going to support play pretty soon.

[Hoth]

2 hours ago, NorEastermass128 said:

A quarter of Italy on lockdown. Methinks many are being a bit cavalier about this. 

Saudis and Kuwait doing the same. I haven't seen any signs of people taking precautions here yet. It's classic normalcy bias at work. We've had some business continuity discussions at work, figuring out what operations we can cut, what can be done from home, and I know Yale is gearing up for an expected shutdown/quarantine scenario, but everyone seems to be taking a reactive vs proactive approach. Nobody wearing masks or gloves at supermarkets, people going out bars and restaurants and churches as usual. I expect we're going to see the exponential nature of COVID spread in the next couple weeks, not so much in test results, which will probably follow a linear model owing to the limits of availability, but in the rise of anecdotal talk of families falling ill, schools closing, hospitals suddenly swamped etc. etc. My boss has a friend who works for Bridgewater, Ray Dalio's giant hedge fund, which seems to be taking the proactive approach. They were dismissed to work from home indefinitely last week (which is interesting since they are in Westport and there were no reported cases in CT yet). You figure a place like that probably has one of the best risk management departments extant, with high level contacts across the spectrum of policy makers, virologists etc., so they know what's happening. Probably no coincidence that banks, Amazon, Google etc. are all banning corporate travel and increasingly moving towards telecommuting too. It will eventually sink in with the general public, but the damage will be done by then.

[Ginx snewx]

2 minutes ago, Hoth said:

Saudis and Kuwait doing the same. I haven't seen any signs of people taking precautions here yet. It's classic normalcy bias at work. We've had some business continuity discussions at work, figuring out what operations we can cut, what can be done from home, and I know Yale is gearing up for an expected shutdown/quarantine scenario, but everyone seems to be taking a reactive vs proactive approach. Nobody wearing masks or gloves at supermarkets, people going out bars and restaurants and churches as usual. I expect we're going to see the exponential nature of COVID spread in the next couple weeks, not so much in test results, which will probably follow a linear model owing to the limits of availability, but in the rise of anecdotal talk of families falling ill, schools closing, hospitals suddenly swamped etc. etc. My boss has a friend who works for Bridgewater, Ray Dalio's giant hedge fund, who told him they were dismissed to work from home indefinitely last week. You figure a place like that probably has one of the best risk management departments extant, so they know what's happening. Probably no coincidence that banks, Amazon, Google etc. are all banning corporate travel and increasingly moving towards telecommuting. It will eventually sink in with the general public, and it may get ugly when it does.

Please be careful in stoking uncertainty and unnecessary fears.

From  Doctor Abdu Sharkaway

I'm a doctor and an Infectious Diseases Specialist. I've been at this for more than 20 years seeing sick patients on a daily basis. I have worked in inner city hospitals and in the poorest slums of Africa. HIV-AIDS, Hepatitis,TB, SARS, Measles, Shingles, Whooping cough, Diphtheria...there is little I haven't been exposed to in my profession. And with notable exception of SARS, very little has left me feeling vulnerable, overwhelmed or downright scared. 

I am not scared of Covid-19. I am concerned about the implications of a novel infectious agent that has spread the world over and continues to find new footholds in different soil.  I am rightly concerned for the welfare of those who are elderly, in frail health or disenfranchised who stand to suffer mostly, and disproportionately, at the hands of this new scourge. But I am not scared of Covid-19.

What I am scared about is the loss of reason and wave of fear that has induced the masses of society into a spellbinding spiral of panic, stockpiling obscene quantities of anything that could fill a bomb shelter adequately in a post-apocalyptic world. I am scared of the N95 masks that are stolen from hospitals and urgent care clinics where they are actually needed for front line healthcare providers and instead are being donned in airports, malls, and coffee lounges, perpetuating even more fear and suspicion of others. I am scared that our hospitals will be overwhelmed with anyone who thinks they " probably don't have it but may as well get checked out no matter what because you just never know..." and those with heart failure, emphysema, pneumonia and  strokes will pay the price for overfilled ER waiting rooms with only so many doctors and nurses to assess. 

I am scared that travel restrictions will become so far reaching that weddings will be canceled, graduations missed and family reunions will not materialize. And well, even that big party called the Olympic Games...that could be kyboshed too. Can you even 
imagine?

I'm scared those same epidemic fears will limit trade, harm partnerships in multiple sectors, business and otherwise and ultimately culminate in a global recession. 

But mostly, I'm scared about what message we are telling our kids when faced with a threat. Instead of reason, rationality, openmindedness and altruism, we are telling them to panic, be fearful, suspicious, reactionary and self-interested.

Covid-19 is nowhere near over. It will be coming to a city, a hospital, a friend, even a family member near you at some point. Expect it.  Stop waiting to be surprised further. The fact is the virus itself will not likely do much harm when it arrives. But our own behaviors and "fight for yourself above all else" attitude could prove disastrous. 

I implore you all. Temper fear with reason, panic with patience and uncertainty with education. We have an opportunity to learn a great deal about health hygiene and limiting the spread of innumerable transmissible diseases in our society. Let's meet this challenge together in the best spirit of compassion for others, patience, and above all, an unfailing effort to seek truth, facts and knowledge as opposed to conjecture, speculation and catastrophizing.

Facts not fear. Clean hands. Open hearts.
Our children will thank us for it.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Masks should not be worn by healthy folks. It does not stop you from getting sick. 

[dendrite]

It’s not going anywhere. You can’t live in a bunker until a vaccine is made. Get busy living or get busy dying. 

[Hoth]

1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said:

Please be careful in stoking uncertainty and unnecessary fears.

From  Doctor Abdu Sharkaway

I'm a doctor and an Infectious Diseases Specialist. I've been at this for more than 20 years seeing sick patients on a daily basis. I have worked in inner city hospitals and in the poorest slums of Africa. HIV-AIDS, Hepatitis,TB, SARS, Measles, Shingles, Whooping cough, Diphtheria...there is little I haven't been exposed to in my profession. And with notable exception of SARS, very little has left me feeling vulnerable, overwhelmed or downright scared. 

I am not scared of Covid-19. I am concerned about the implications of a novel infectious agent that has spread the world over and continues to find new footholds in different soil.  I am rightly concerned for the welfare of those who are elderly, in frail health or disenfranchised who stand to suffer mostly, and disproportionately, at the hands of this new scourge. But I am not scared of Covid-19.

What I am scared about is the loss of reason and wave of fear that has induced the masses of society into a spellbinding spiral of panic, stockpiling obscene quantities of anything that could fill a bomb shelter adequately in a post-apocalyptic world. I am scared of the N95 masks that are stolen from hospitals and urgent care clinics where they are actually needed for front line healthcare providers and instead are being donned in airports, malls, and coffee lounges, perpetuating even more fear and suspicion of others. I am scared that our hospitals will be overwhelmed with anyone who thinks they " probably don't have it but may as well get checked out no matter what because you just never know..." and those with heart failure, emphysema, pneumonia and  strokes will pay the price for overfilled ER waiting rooms with only so many doctors and nurses to assess. 

I am scared that travel restrictions will become so far reaching that weddings will be canceled, graduations missed and family reunions will not materialize. And well, even that big party called the Olympic Games...that could be kyboshed too. Can you even 
imagine?

I'm scared those same epidemic fears will limit trade, harm partnerships in multiple sectors, business and otherwise and ultimately culminate in a global recession. 

But mostly, I'm scared about what message we are telling our kids when faced with a threat. Instead of reason, rationality, openmindedness and altruism, we are telling them to panic, be fearful, suspicious, reactionary and self-interested.

Covid-19 is nowhere near over. It will be coming to a city, a hospital, a friend, even a family member near you at some point. Expect it.  Stop waiting to be surprised further. The fact is the virus itself will not likely do much harm when it arrives. But our own behaviors and "fight for yourself above all else" attitude could prove disastrous. 

I implore you all. Temper fear with reason, panic with patience and uncertainty with education. We have an opportunity to learn a great deal about health hygiene and limiting the spread of innumerable transmissible diseases in our society. Let's meet this challenge together in the best spirit of compassion for others, patience, and above all, an unfailing effort to seek truth, facts and knowledge as opposed to conjecture, speculation and catastrophizing.

Facts not fear. Clean hands. Open hearts.
Our children will thank us for it.

I don't mean to stoke fear at all, but I think preparedness and precautions are important. We're probably conditioned to be complacent because we haven't seen a threat like this in a long time. Here's an interview with Richard Hatchett, which I found to be pretty even-keeled and on the ball.

 

[Hoth]

1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Masks should not be worn by healthy folks. It does not stop you from getting sick. 

So why do doctors in hospitals bother with them?

[HIPPYVALLEY]

The economic damage from this will be staggering and far reaching.

[HIPPYVALLEY]

1 minute ago, Hoth said:

So why do doctors in hospitals bother with them?

Masks are not useless they are just one pre-caution but unless you are wearing a full bio-hazard suit you are still susceptible.

[Hoth]

Just now, HIPPYVALLEY said:

Masks are not useless they are just one pre-caution but unless you are wearing a full bio-hazard suit you are still susceptible.

For sure. We're talking about risk mitigation, not elimination.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

21 minutes ago, dendrite said:

It’s not going anywhere. You can’t live in a bunker until a vaccine is made. Get busy living or get busy dying. 

Live free or die trying?

[Hazey]

Whatever it takes to turn humanity into paranoid germafobes, that’s what it’s gonna take to put this virus in check. Keep the fear mongering going is what I say. Can’t hurt to scare at least a few people into washing their hands after using public restroom facilities.

[CoastalWx]

3 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Live free or die trying?

Get rich or die tryin'  --50 cent. 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

20 minutes ago, Hoth said:

So why do doctors in hospitals bother with them?

They actually do it more so to prevent their micro organisms from jumping:

https://www.cochrane.org/CD002929/WOUNDS_disposable-surgical-face-masks-preventing-surgical-wound-infection-clean-surgery

Wearing a face mask for our purposes during an outbreak doesn’t do much:

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.businessinsider.com/face-masks-wont-help-avoid-illness-so-why-wear-them-mental-health%3famp

[Hazey]

The economic damage from this will be staggering and far reaching.

Rumour has it that when the economy collapses, toilet paper will be the new commodity. Full roll 20$. Half 10, Quarter 5.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

24 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

The economic damage from this will be staggering and far reaching.

Yup. I felt the effects very early dealing with Chinese supply chain. The trickle down was easy to project even if it didn’t spread globally and once it did...bet on some form of a recession. 

[Hoth]

3 minutes ago, Hazey said:

Rumour has it that when the economy collapses, toilet paper will be the new commodity. Full roll 20$. Half 10, Quarter 5.

You've heard of bitcoin. TP becomes the new shitcoin.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

Healthy people should not be wearing masks in public that’s been stated everywhere. It does nothing to stop you from getting sick 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

39 minutes ago, Hoth said:

I don't mean to stoke fear at all, but I think preparedness and precautions are important. We're probably conditioned to be complacent because we haven't seen a threat like this in a long time. Here's an interview with Richard Hatchett, which I found to be pretty even-keeled and on the ball.

 

Yea, that’s the right approach. Unfortunately, nowadays, everyone can find an opinion online (even from a professional) to fit our own which makes us believe it is a fact. There is no right or wrong sometimes. So I’m not saying Steve is wrong, I just don’t agree with the approach. 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

1 minute ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Healthy people should not be wearing masks in public that’s been stated everywhere. It does nothing to stop you from getting sick 

Yup. Wearing it actually deters me from being anywhere near you. Either you are sick or dumb...both valid reasons to stay away.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

some will. Lol.

Im all for practicing good hygiene and being aware of your surroundings. Doesn’t hurt to load up on the hand sanitizer etc etc. but other than that, I don’t know what people are supposed to do. It’s unrealistic to stop living life, most people still have to go to work and do what they do.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

1 minute ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

some will. Lol.

Im all for practicing good hygiene and being aware of your surroundings. Doesn’t hurt to load up on the hand sanitizer etc etc. but other than that, I don’t know what people are supposed to do. It’s unrealistic to stop living life, most people still have to go to work and do what they do.

Folks in relatively good health shouldn’t worry anyway. 

18 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Get rich or die tryin'  --50 cent. 

There are hedge funds banking off of this right now. 

[Hoth]

23 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Yup. Wearing it actually deters me from being anywhere near you. Either you are sick or dumb...both valid reasons to stay away.

lol, and since social distancing is useful in preventing transmission, mission accomplished.

[HoarfrostHubb]

I would be stocking up on sugar.  That will be worth a ton. People are addicted to it

[weathafella]

37 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Yup. Wearing it actually deters me from being anywhere near you. Either you are sick or dumb...both valid reasons to stay away.

I had the flu 2 years ago and went in to be tested in the early stages.   There were no masks to be found but doctors in the office wore them to protect themselves.  I thnk there’s a lot of misinformation regarding masks.  If you’re in an area with sick people and you have no choice but to be there....I think masks can be protective, particularly N95 masks.

[OSUmetstud]

On 3/6/2020 at 4:16 PM, weatherwiz said:

I always wash my hands before using the bathroom 

How about after?...

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

1 minute ago, weathafella said:

I had the flu 2 years ago and went in to be tested in the early stages.   There were no masks to be found but doctors in the office wore them to protect themselves.  I thnk there’s a lot of misinformation regarding masks.  If you’re in an area with sick people and you have no choice but to be there....I think masks can be protective, particularly N95 masks.

N95 masks, yes, which only professionals know how to use. 

[weathafella]

This is the biggest world wide (including the USA) threat in any of our life times.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

1 minute ago, OSUmetstud said:

How about after?...

The bird is out of the cage by then...let him fly free.

[weathafella]

5 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

N95 masks, yes, which only professionals know how to use. 

Other masks will protect if worn properly in a high risk environment.  Don’t sell this thing short.  Personally, as a man in my 70s working in a hospital I’m ultra cautious.  I had pneumonia as a child and the rare times I get a virus settling in my lungs I get pretty sick.  Overall I consider myself healthy but not stupid.  That said...I’m not wearing a mask.....yet.  Avoiding flying wouldn’t be a bad idea.