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Winter 2020 New England Banter and General Obs


CapturedNature
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On 2/26/2020 at 5:24 PM, Ginx snewx said:

Yes let's hope the plateau WHO report from China is an indication that it can be contained . 

I think the problem is the virus changes how it spreads.  Ultimately it may be no more or much more deadly vs flu.  The 1918 pandemic was lights out terrible but it was 1918.  I think people with the strongest immune systems may be at pretty high risk because it is precisely this immune system that fills the lungs with fluid risking life.  Obviously people with other underlying health issues are at risk from any virus and coronavirus is unknown enough to scare the shit out of the population.  We’ve seen that mismanagement resulted in higher morbidity and mortality (early days in China, Italy, Japan, Korea).   The US response at the border was good but to have untrained and unprotected workers screening incoming folks is pretty bad.   However I think communities have done a good job.  That said....how many well carriers in the country are spreading this around?   We don’t know.

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53 minutes ago, weathafella said:

I think the problem is the virus changes how it spreads.  Ultimately it may be no more or much more deadly vs flu.  The 1918 pandemic was lights out terrible but it was 1918.  I think people with the strongest immune systems may be at pretty high risk because it is precisely this immune system that fills the lungs with fluid risking life.  Obviously people with other underlying health issues are at risk from any virus and coronavirus is unknown enough to scare the shit out of the population.  We’ve seen that mismanagement resulted in higher morbidity and mortality (early days in China, Italy, Japan, Korea).   The US response at the border was good but to have untrained and unprotected workers screening incoming folks is pretty bad.   However I think communities have done a good job.  That said....how many well carriers in the country are spreading this around?   We don’t know.

Traveling this past weekend, I noticed more people with masks, especially at Logan. I’ll be flying to ORD next week...if the work trip doesn’t get postponed. 

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Just now, NorEastermass128 said:

My brother’s friends just got recalled home from studying abroad in Italy. I wonder what the schools/govt is doing to screen the influx of students coming back home early. 

Yeah. Our son’s university sent out a letter informing them they were bringing students from Italy back    Hopefully they can do a thorough screening.  

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1 hour ago, weathafella said:

I think the problem is the virus changes how it spreads.  Ultimately it may be no more or much more deadly vs flu.  The 1918 pandemic was lights out terrible but it was 1918.  I think people with the strongest immune systems may be at pretty high risk because it is precisely this immune system that fills the lungs with fluid risking life.  Obviously people with other underlying health issues are at risk from any virus and coronavirus is unknown enough to scare the shit out of the population.  We’ve seen that mismanagement resulted in higher morbidity and mortality (early days in China, Italy, Japan, Korea).   The US response at the border was good but to have untrained and unprotected workers screening incoming folks is pretty bad.   However I think communities have done a good job.  That said....how many well carriers in the country are spreading this around?   We don’t know.

Reporting today on the genetic testing suggests that community transmission has been going on for "weeks" in the Pac NW. So I'm fully prepared for a rapid escalation in infection numbers once testing capabilities are scaled up. It will likely be breathlessly reported as a shock, but I think that should be viewed as the reality right now. The failed test kit really cost the US on containment. They had to send samples to CDC directly, and since that was time consuming and expensive, testing was limited to people who had recently traveled from/through China. Never mind the goat rodeo that was HHS dealing with repatriating patients coming back from China on the AFB in CA.

My sister was set to have her marriage ceremony/reception in Italy in April (actually justice of the peace next weekend in SFO). So that is pretty much toast and we're trying to recover as much of our deposits as possible. :(

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6 minutes ago, dendrite said:

None beyond the winter pattern. 

There has been a lot of speculation that the 3 to 4 week cold a lot where getting back in Nov Dec was possibly Covid. Unproven because no one was testing for it but it is possible it's been here for months.

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7 minutes ago, dendrite said:

How would that be possible if it started in Wuhan in December?

I think they've been able to trace the genetics back to late October as a likely patient zero.

I do think because we weren't looking for it that we definitely have many more cases than being reported currently. 

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34 minutes ago, dendrite said:

How would that be possible if it started in Wuhan in December?

First detected in Wuhan? Its all speculation but I know quite a few folks who had a nagging 3 week deep cough that was basically undiagnosed and not associated with the flu. Each person said they never had a cold last that long. I remember people posting here too about their experience. I have no idea but it is interesting 

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11 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

First detected in Wuhan? Its all speculation but I know quite a few folks who had a nagging 3 week deep cough that was basically undiagnosed and not associated with the flu. Each person said they never had a cold last that long. I remember people posting here too about their experience. I have no idea but it is interesting 

I know a number of folks that had that. 

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27 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

First detected in Wuhan? Its all speculation but I know quite a few folks who had a nagging 3 week deep cough that was basically undiagnosed and not associated with the flu. Each person said they never had a cold last that long. I remember people posting here too about their experience. I have no idea but it is interesting 

Sounds like me. Occasional coughing and tight breathing, but otherwise nbd. I don’t think I’ve had a fever at all this winter so far. Mine was probably 6-8 weeks though although it wasn’t bad all of the time. I think dairy consumption made it worse. I’ve never smoked a cig in my life so there’s no possible background lung issues. 

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1 hour ago, weatherwiz said:

In about 12-13 days the GFS will start poking into April so we're essentially only 12-13 days away from being 0 full months away from May in the model world. 

What is the big deal about May? Severe weather?

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