Winter 2020 New England Banter and General Obs

[powderfreak]

The virus could see a wide range of death rates depending on what happens going forward.  It could cripple nursing homes or assisted living spaces for elderly and spike mortality rates depending on how well prepared they are to contain it in those environments.  

Likewise if they are proactive and keep it out of those spaces, the mortality rates will be lower.  The key to the mortality rates will be infection rates of elderly patients and people with pre-existing conditions.  

I do think it’s more widespread than we think or know right now...there are a ton of people who won’t go to the doctors unless absolutely necessary due to health care costs and insurance situations.  Could certainly be plenty of sick folks trying to tough out a “cold” or “cough” right now without seeing a doctor.  

[Ginx snewx]

1 hour ago, Hoth said:

Bear in mind that the case fatality rate may actually rise going forward if draconian containment measures are not taken. This virus is very transmittable, and viral shedding is nearly as high in asymptomatic infected people as in those who are visibly sick. People can be walking around infecting others for weeks without knowing they are sick themselves. Based on the data we have, somewhere between 13-20% of infected people will require hospitalization, usually in the second or third week, which will very quickly will overwhelm hospital capacity, especially considering hospitals are already near capacity from the flu. Worse, coronavirus cases that progress to the pneumonia stage often require weeks of oxygen, assisted ventilation and other intensive care. Some patients appear to develop fibrosis, so basically permanent lung damage. There simply isn't enough capacity for the number of people who will likely need this therapy in the coming months. This will lead to deaths in people of all ages; obviously the rate will be higher in the elderly (which is somewhere around 15% for those above 80) and people with existing health complications, diabetes, smokers, cancer etc. etc. (of which there are millions), but there have been plenty of cases of young, healthy people dying from multiple organ failure from cytokine storms. Basically overly aggressive immune response causes massive inflammation and floods the lungs with fluid. Same thing happened in the young in 1918. The other thing to consider regarding the case fatality rate is that dividing deaths by confirmed cases may not be the best metric. Deaths/recoveries may be a better method, as it captures cases where the disease has completely run its course. Based on data so far, that would put SARS-COVID19 around 6-8%, not too far out of line with SARS' 10%. Don't expect this to disappear from the headlines anytime soon. We likely have not seen an infectious disease threat of this magnitude in a century. 

Christ that's the bummer post of the year

[tunafish]

We could use a solid population reduction.  Too many people on earth.  Mother nature has a way of correcting herself.  Mass deforestation in Asia for populace expansion  --> close contact with bats --> new and fun diseases like this one. 

This coming from someone who probably has COVID-19 after spending a week in San Fran with two cross country flights filled with troglodytes coughing and sneezing without covering properly. 

[Hoth]

15 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Christ that's the bummer post of the year

Sorry Steve, don't mean to be a downer. But normalcy bias can be a major problem in a situation like this. Better to take this seriously than be complacent.

[Hoth]

27 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

I do think it’s more widespread than we think or know right now...there are a ton of people who won’t go to the doctors unless absolutely necessary due to health care costs and insurance situations.  Could certainly be plenty of sick folks trying to tough out a “cold” or “cough” right now without seeing a doctor.  

This is a superb point. A lot of people will worry that they might be hit with a hefty pricetag for a test that is not necessarily accurate. I saw Mass lawmakers mandated that anyone can get tested without expense (kudos to them), but there are only four states doing this. And as you say, a lot of people presenting mild symptoms probably just assume they have a bad cold and just soldier on as usual. Here's what I'll say about this, it ain't the flu. The Chinese Communist Party values social stability above everything else, and their model for keeping stability has been economic growth at any cost, including blowing an unprecedented debt bubble over the last decade. The fact that they've virtually locked their country down and destroyed their economy suggests that what they're seeing and what they're reporting are two very different things.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

I think the biggest problem is somebody who doesn’t know they have it can be here there and everywhere for weeks before realizing it. 
 

on the flip side, I don’t think you can live in fear. I mean, I’m not going to be locking myself in the house or wearing a huge mask whenever I go out.

Its also important to remember, the large majority of the population will be fine in time. Nothing is a guarantee... but if you are healthy and conscious of your surroundings/cleanliness.. you probably aren’t going to get it, and if you do, it probably isn’t going to put you in your death bed 

[NorEastermass128]

3 minutes ago, Hoth said:

This is a superb point. A lot of people will worry that they might be hit with a hefty pricetag for a test that is not necessarily accurate. I saw Mass lawmakers mandated that anyone can get tested without expense (kudos to them), but there are only four states doing this. And as you say, a lot of people presenting mild symptoms probably just assume they have a bad cold and just soldier on as usual. Here's what I'll say about this, it ain't the flu. The Chinese Communist Party values social stability above everything else, and their model for keeping stability has been economic growth at any cost, including blowing an unprecedented debt bubble over the last decade. The fact that they've virtually locked their country down and destroyed their economy suggests that what they're seeing and what they're reporting are two very different things.

We’ll know better soon enough. 

[Damage In Tolland]

NY state went from 22 to 76 cases overnight. Cuomo declares a SOE. You’ll see all schools closing for 14 days to start coming over the next week or two. The country is about to go into WTF mode 

[NorEastermass128]

Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

NY state went from 22 to 76 cases overnight. Cuomo declares a SOE. You’ll see all schools closing for 14 days to start coming over the next week or two. The country is about to go into WTF mode 

I’m flying into ORD on Monday. In CHI till Friday. Maybe a fringe benefit will be a row to myself on the plane?  The little things. 

[Hoth]

1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

NY state went from 22 to 76 cases overnight. Cuomo declares a SOE. You’ll see all schools closing for 14 days to start coming over the next week or two. The country is about to go into WTF mode 

Agreed. We're inflecting into the exponential growth phase. I feel bad for any small business owner/retailer over the next few months. Once cases become common, foot traffic is going to fall off a cliff.

[Damage In Tolland]

1 minute ago, NorEastermass128 said:

I’m flying into ORD on Monday. In CHI till Friday. Maybe a fringe benefit will be a row to myself on the plane?  The little things. 

I have a meeting Monday at one of my few NY accounts in Westchester County in Tarrytown where most of the cases are reported. I’m 50/50 on cancelling 

[NorEastermass128]

2 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

I think the biggest problem is somebody who doesn’t know they have it can be here there and everywhere for weeks before realizing it. 
 

on the flip side, I don’t think you can live in fear. I mean, I’m not going to be locking myself in the house or wearing a huge mask whenever I go out.

Its also important to remember, the large majority of the population will be fine in time. Nothing is a guarantee... but if you are healthy and conscious of your surroundings/cleanliness.. you probably aren’t going to get it, and if you do, it probably isn’t going to put you in your death bed 

Easy for younger, relatively healthy people to say, but I feel for older/at risk populations that won’t fare nearly as well as their younger/healthier peers.   

[SnowFeen1]

7 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

NY state went from 22 to 76 cases overnight. Cuomo declares a SOE. You’ll see all schools closing for 14 days to start coming over the next week or two. The country is about to go into WTF mode 

My brother in law is sick as a dog and won’t go to the hospital. I told him your Risking your parents life now they’re older. Plus my wife and my baby son are not coming over for a while because of this. It’s not worth risking it.

[MJO812]

I have been sick for a week with a bad cold

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

8 minutes ago, NorEastermass128 said:

Easy for younger, relatively healthy people to say, but I feel for older/at risk populations that won’t fare nearly as well as their younger/healthier peers.   

Well of course, nobody wants to see anyone get sick or die, obviously. But isn’t that the case with any sickness generally? The older/more compromised your immune system already is, the harder something like this will hit.

My sister in law had a baby yesterday and we went to the hospital to visit this morning. We were “screened” when we went in. The screening consisted of literally asking if we had been out of the country or had a fever. If that’s what these measures are going to be, then yeah, you can probably expect it to spread. I mean, it was kind of a joke.

[Hoth]

9 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

4 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Well of course, nobody wants to see anyone get sick or die, obviously. But isn’t that the case with any sickness generally? The older/more compromised your immune system already is, the harder something like this will hit.

My sister in law had a baby yesterday and we went to the hospital to visit this morning. We were “screened” when we went in. The screening consisted of literally asking if we had been out of the country or had a fever. If that’s what these measures are going to be, then yeah, you can probably expect it to spread. I mean, it was kind of a joke.

 

If a young person gets pneumonia from this and the hospital capacity has been taxed to the point of breaking, mortality will increase in that group too. Just not enough doctors/ventilators etc. to treat everyone. We may not even be in the early innings here; the players are only now taking the field.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

5 minutes ago, Hoth said:

If a young person gets pneumonia from this and the hospital capacity has been taxed to the point of breaking, mortality will increase in that group too. Just not enough doctors/ventilators etc. to treat everyone. We may not even be in the early innings here; the players are only now taking the field.

How common is pneumonia from this in younger and generally health folks? I’m not being sarcastic.... just everything I’ve read has t mentioned it even once 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

17 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

I have been sick for a week with a bad cold

You and everyone else. It’s gone through my work and my family over the last 2 weeks. Time of year 

[dendrite]

2 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

You and everyone else. It’s gone through my work and my family over the last 2 weeks. Time of year 

Almost everyone I know has been coughing, sneezing, and wiping their nose for the past week or two. I'm still hacking up solid pieces of phlegm. I have yet to get a fever though.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

Just now, dendrite said:

Almost everyone I know has been coughing, sneezing, and wiping their nose for the past week or two. I'm still hacking up solid pieces of phlegm. I have yet to get a fever though.

Yeah... same... I was sick earlier this week... congested and coughing but no fever... it’s pretty much cleared as of today.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

34 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

NY state went from 22 to 76 cases overnight. Cuomo declares a SOE. You’ll see all schools closing for 14 days to start coming over the next week or two. The country is about to go into WTF mode 

Seems like with all the precautions and extra cleanings and all that stuff going on at schools... seems like closing is going to be a last resort. At this point, doesn’t seem like most are operating like they plan to close 

[Hoth]

11 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

How common is pneumonia from this in younger and generally health folks? I’m not being sarcastic.... just everything I’ve read has t mentioned it even once 

My understanding is that it's one of the defining symptoms of COVID19. That's how it was initially discovered in China, as an abnormal pneumonia that didn't fit any known disease profile. Along with fever, dry cough and muscular weakness, pneumonia appears to be pretty common, especially as the disease progresses into the second or third week. It's probably the primary reason a high percentage of people require hospitalization. The infection gets deep in the lungs and produces abnormally dense sputum that can't be cleared by coughing. That drives hypoxia and organ failure without intensive care in more serious cases. There have been cases requiring intensive manual ventilation for upwards of a month to keep them alive. There was even a lung transplant in China because a patient developed severe fibrosis. Anyway, here's an early study of patients in Wuhan from the Lancet:  https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)30183-5/fulltext

[powderfreak]

1 hour ago, NorEastermass128 said:

I’m flying into ORD on Monday. In CHI till Friday. Maybe a fringe benefit will be a row to myself on the plane?  The little things. 

My wife and I just got back from Utah...United Airlines sucked on the way out there, took 23 hours of travel to get from BTV to SLC...taking 3 flights after 4 non-weather related delays to various flights.  

They gave us seats with no one on either side of us for the 4-hour red eye flight to Newark on the return flight.  A good spread.

[Dan76]

Newark ...Did forky pick u up ?

[mreaves]

Supposed to be going to a Canadien’s game Thursday night for my son’s 16th birthday. Hope is still goes on. I’m a little apprehensive but have been washing my hands like a mofo. Of course try getting a 16 year old to take that seriously  

[Torch Tiger]

 

we spread

Coronavirus updates live: 1st case confirmed in nation's capital

[S&P]

11 hours ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Honestly... not much... 300-400 bucks probably. I’m looking for a whole set, but as a beginner, I don’t feel the need to spend a ton of money.

Ive checked eBay... and some interesting deals.. but I’ve yet to see a full set and piecing a set together on there seems pricey.

I have friends who have spent a couple hundred on “box” sets and slowly upgraded club by club over the seasons.

Yeah that’s not a lot unless you piece together something from various sources, box set is your only reasonable option. I have a box set my son used that I have replaced some pieces with that your welcome to if you want. 

[Lava Rock]

My wife's a flight attendant. I keep telling her to possibly cut back on flying, but she just went to visit friends in Long island this weekend and then going to LAX Tues to visit her mom. Then she goes back to actual work flying. She kind of has a fearless attitude about the whole thing which I don't like much.

[Hoth]

4 hours ago, Dr. Dews said:

 

we spread

Coronavirus updates live: 1st case confirmed in nation's capital

Now first case in VT.

[NorEastermass128]

4 minutes ago, Hoth said:

Now first case in VT.

A quarter of Italy on lockdown. Methinks many are being a bit cavalier about this.