CoolHandMike Posted January 12, 2020 Share Posted January 12, 2020 64°F and 82% humidity at midnight. I wonder if that line of storms will make it here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted January 12, 2020 Author Share Posted January 12, 2020 Pretty decent line of showers/storms w/gusty winds about to move through the area. Current temp is still 66 here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted January 12, 2020 Share Posted January 12, 2020 64 here at post time with dp in the upper 50s. A convective line is on my doorstep. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted January 12, 2020 Author Share Posted January 12, 2020 Wow Severe Thunderstorm Warning in SW NJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted January 12, 2020 Share Posted January 12, 2020 Looks like I may have maxed at 65 just as the rain was coming in (got 0.06" from that broken line and already had 0.07" earlier overnight between 2 - 3:30 am for a total of 0.13" so far today). Currently 63 and overcast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 12, 2020 Share Posted January 12, 2020 For our 2nd straight day a record high...and this time an all-time all elevation Chester County record of 64.4 at 1:44am besting the old mark of 61.8 set just 3 years ago. Also recorded 0.35" of rain with the frontal passage with a high wind gust of 24mph Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 12, 2020 Share Posted January 12, 2020 12 gfs has a half foot of snow up this way friday night into Saturday before a flip then maybe ending as frozen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 12, 2020 Share Posted January 12, 2020 1 hour ago, Ralph Wiggum said: 12 gfs has a half foot of snow up this way friday night into Saturday before a flip then maybe ending as frozen. With main low pressure over lake Erie and the secondary developing over land in SE New England why even bother. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted January 12, 2020 Author Share Posted January 12, 2020 Another warm day out there, current temp 67 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 12 hours ago, greenskeeper said: solid 0-6" event this coming weekend Sounds about right, even the Euro spits out about 8" here tho not all is snow. What we are seeing however especially in the ens is a weaker primary, less of a move into upstate NY (remember models had this into Quebec province a few days ago), and a stronger signal for a coastal wave developing east of the DelMarVa becoming the primary. Something to keep an eye on as the weaker primary and better redevelopment reflection is in response to the ridging up top which when we saw this in late Nov into early Dec killed the primary faster. Will be interesting to see how that feature plays out now in prime climo. Guessing many W of i95 and N of the m/d line see at least a few inches of pure thump snows before changing over IF these looks hold and dont morph into something completely different at 500mb. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluehens Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 The data on the 6z GFS looks like its giving us 1" liquid with 850s below 0 and the surface at or below freezing. This is for ILG. That is a shellacking. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 Mt Holly's early thoughts: Quote For Friday through Sunday...For a portion of this time frame, the details are much less clear due to some timing differences in the guidance. An eastward amplifying trough will drive strengthening low pressure across the Great Lakes during Saturday. Meanwhile, cold high pressure sitting over portions of eastern Canada and New England will stretch down into our region before eventually weakening. The setup looks rather conducive for a healthy overrunning event. The low-level air mass is currently forecast to be rather dry across our area Friday following the Wednesday night cold frontal passage. In addition, a colder air mass will be in place. There will be the potential for a wet bulb effect to occur as precipitation arrives and the dry air initially in place may also delay its arrival. This setup may also result in a slower warm-up at the surface during Saturday. Much of the area looks cold enough for a period of snow to occur before warming works in from south to north. Given the surface low tracking across the Great Lakes and then to New England typically leads to warming overtaking our entire region. However, if a secondary low can develop off the coast that may keep some of the low-level cold in place longer especially up north. There is high confidence in a precipitation event occurring late Friday night and especially Saturday, however the details are much less certain. As of now, improving conditions should then take place Saturday night and especially Sunday as the storm pulls away although it will be windy in its wake along with colder temperatures Sunday. I like where we are at for being at day 5. Seems like a classic 2-4/3-6" snow before turning to sleet/frz rain and ending as light rain/drizzle. Finally a real winter storm to track this week! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 30 minutes ago, The Iceman said: Mt Holly's early thoughts: I like where we are at for being at day 5. Seems like a classic 2-4/3-6" snow before turning to sleet/frz rain and ending as light rain/drizzle. Finally a real winter storm to track this week! Agreed....and 5 days away still. Seeing better trends at 6z and already at 12z irt slp placement, hp placement and strength. Hoping we can trend to the better or remain stable and not back down leading up to the event. Tracking helmet and goggles on! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jsdphilly Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 Finally something to track, feels like it has been years...I must admit, yesterday had me hoping for a Blizzard in February and an early spring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluehens Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 I will gladly take what the 12z GFS is selling and call it a day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 23 hours ago, RedSky said: With main low pressure over lake Erie and the secondary developing over land in SE New England why even bother. Should we still not bother? Whatcha thinking? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
penndotguy Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 crazy how 43 feels today after that weekend, hope we can get back to winter now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 Latest Wxsim for next weekend with 12z NAM/GFS combo - of course we don't shovel model snow!! Saturday: Dense overcast. A chance of snow in the morning, then a mix of sleet and snow likely in the afternoon. High 31. Wind chill ranging from 11 to 18. Wind east-southeast around 7 mph, gusting to 16 mph, in the morning, becoming 10 mph, gusting to 18 mph, in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation 80 percent. Precipitation (liquid equivalent) mostly around 2 inches. Snow or ice (on ground) accumulation 12 to 16 inches. Saturday night: Cloudy in the evening, becoming mostly cloudy after midnight. Patchy light fog in the evening. A chance of a mix of freezing rain, sleet, and snow in the evening, then a slight chance of a mix of rain and snow after midnight. Low 30, but temperatures rising after midnight. Wind chill ranging from 19 to 29. Wind south around 10 mph, gusting to 20 mph, in the evening, becoming west-southwest after midnight. Chance of precipitation 60 percent. Precipitation (liquid equivalent) mostly less than a quarter of an inch. No snow or ice (on ground) accumulation expected. Little if any freezing rain accumulation. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 1 hour ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Should we still not bother? Whatcha thinking? ECM all the way and its still 5 days away Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 41 minutes ago, RedSky said: ECM all the way and its still 5 days away Euro is a solid thump then changeover. The CMC and GFS are solid hits and trending to no flip to rain. Fun times ahead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 Euro next week is hinting KU type system. Not quite there yet at the surface this run but 500mb maps are honking. Eta: read that the EPS are not impressed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluehens Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 Wow a true happy hour run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluehens Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 1.2” mean precip for my hood on 18z GFS. Most of it frozen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 18z was a small step back, bumped storm track NW a tad and and a kick in the groin to NJ. Doesn't matter GFS is laughable at this stage, and a long history now of exaggerating snow totals. * but the GEFS pumped out some fantasy drama lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 1 hour ago, RedSky said: 18z was a small step back, bumped storm track NW a tad and and a kick in the groin to NJ. Doesn't matter GFS is laughable at this stage, and a long history now of exaggerating snow totals. * but the GEFS pumped out some fantasy drama lol Not sure what you saw but didnt appear as a step back to my eyes at all. Much deeper CAD that run and much less influence from a weakening primary. Gonna be messy this weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue Dream Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 Really fiending for some snow around here. Been really horrendous since that Nov 2019 storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted January 15, 2020 Author Share Posted January 15, 2020 While I do not follow him some of his posts have been popping up in my Twitter feed for some reason. This seems to be along the same line of thinking as Larry Cosgrove. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 3 hours ago, Rtd208 said: While I do not follow him some of his posts have been popping up in my Twitter feed for some reason. This seems to be along the same line of thinking as Larry Cosgrove. Long range looks awful 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 2 hours ago, Snow88 said: Long range looks awful Not 'awful'....just not conducive to a BIG DOG. Also the key features are misplaced by a few hundred miles. EC trof ends up centered on the coast, WC ridge is slightly east of where we like, etc. Split flow with the PV around could still yield overrunning systems. Going to be a waiting game tho to try and forecast those in a West Coast split. LR looks wont show up. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 1 hour ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Not 'awful'....just not conducive to a BIG DOG. Also the key features are misplaced by a few hundred miles. EC trof ends up centered on the coast, WC ridge is slightly east of where we like, etc. Split flow with the PV around could still yield overrunning systems. Going to be a waiting game tho to try and forecast those in a West Coast split. LR looks wont show up. 6z GFS has the big dog...only 276 hours to go. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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