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E PA/NJ/DE Winter 2019/2020 OBS Thread


Rtd208
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1 hour ago, RedSky said:

Two camps on the coming pattern change:

Camp 1 - Pattern change to cold and possible snowy after the 16th, many in this camp expect this to last deep into February which would be unusual we usually don't do that very well but it can occasionally happen. 

Camp 2 - Change to normal/below after the 16th likely lasts 10-14 days then oscillates back to first half of January pattern. This falls in line with the mild winter forecasts that have scored highest to this point. Also Weather World a few days ago did their 5 week outlook which is 2/3rd of the time normal to above, which argues this cold wave will be transient.

What does this mean? We better score good snow the last third of January because that may be all she wrote outside of more late season garbage like the last two winters.

 

Camp 2 seems most likely given the progression we are seeing in the overall N Hemi teleconnections. Fairly certain the current meh pattern will begin to progress into something more workable as the strong N central PAC ridge begins to migrate/extend into the EPO region allowing for continental cold air intrusions. With the said, the PAC will still continue to rule to show. While the Scandinavian ridge will eventually attempt to bridge across the AO region and provide a favorable window, it appears to the me the theme of transient Atl and HL features will continue on well into mid February while the more stable mid lat features may return to their base state (-pna/central PAC ridge/se ridge).

When the EPO ridge wanes we will once again be dependent on transient blocking/ridging on the Atl side for windows. Not surprising we arent getting a sustained favorable pattern but rather windows of opportunity. Better than a complete shutout look. Tbh I can see us transitioning to cold and dry early Feb before the EPO ridge relaxes and things return to hostile in the N central PAC.

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On 1/7/2020 at 11:45 PM, Albedoman said:

A few days ago this wasn’t shown to get out of phase 5 before going into the COD. Now it’s higher amplitude is getting it into 6 with members now showing it going into 7 then 8. It will keep correcting our in time. 

AF0AC34E-F2CE-48DA-BDBB-63F4602D99FC.gif

Solid call on this it appears. Euro takes it near 8 then cod. Cfs ishigher amp into 8.

diagram_40days_forecast_GEFSBC_member.gif

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13 minutes ago, The Iceman said:

My car thermometer read 71 at 2 pm. Was in langhorne pa. Are other areas breaking 70 in the area or is my car thermometer just running hot?

Langhorne deep into the urban heat island land of concrete and asphalt it's legit. I hit 68F

 

 

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