Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,601
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    ArlyDude
    Newest Member
    ArlyDude
    Joined

E PA/NJ/DE Winter 2019/2020 OBS Thread


Rtd208
 Share

Recommended Posts

There looks to be a light at the end of this tunnel/god awful pattern.

Starting to see subtle changes by 200 hours which has been slowly creeping closer in time. While I dont think THIS is the change yet, the extension of the Pac ridge into the AO region and the building of a Scandinavian ridge are all precursors to a hopeful positive shift in the pattern by roughly mid month. 

Latest GEFS and EPS both agree on the look and a return to colder anomalies in the Eastern US. EPS a little slower than the GEFS and noticed this may be in part to the EPS focusing more on nosing the Pac ridge slower and the GFS building and moving the Scan ridge into the AO regions faster. Basically timing differences but headed toward a similar progression.

We could still accidentally back into a snow event during this lousy pattern over the next week which is somewhat head-scratching given the overall look. Any other year it would be a shutout/close the blinds scenario. This increases my confidence that once the current crud pattern transitions it may not take much to get things going for our region in terms of tracking winter events. Confidence in winter showing up again by mid month just in time for prime climo is increasing.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Sometimes the light at the end of the tunnel is nothing more than that of an oncoming train. Anyway...

I remember last year when the models kept teasing us with epic looks in the long range, Mitch (Mitchnick) kept pointing out the lack of troughing over/near Japan and how that was a red flag for him. I've casually been noticing the same thing this year. Any sort of lower heights that (rarely) show up there are in and out. It's just one piece of the puzzle, but yet another piece that doesn't seem to be in our favor.

Still way too early to give up on winter. My expectations were for average snow this year, just hope I don't have to adjust downward from there.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 hours ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Might touch 60 up here next weekend maybe kiss 70 in Cape May per Euro. Light at the end of the tunnel is starting to dim. We can hope for 60 and some Wiggum snows anyway.

Even the awful record mild January of 2006 gave me 2" snow it better do something

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...